Two years ago in this blog, I wrote a futuristic column  from April 20, 2009. The title of the column was “Remember When Gas Was Cheap?” At that time I predicted that the price of oil in early 2008 would reach $125 and that in April 2009 it would be $137.
In January of 2007 I was invited on the “First Business” syndicated business program to discuss the price of oil for the remainder of the year. At the time the price was $53 a barrel. I basically told the flabbergasted reporter that I thought the price of oil would most definitely cross $80 a barrel and would approach, but not reach the $100 a barrel price. The counterbalancing view was some “oil industry expert” who said the price range for the year would be $50-70 a barrel. Of course we know what happened.

Last fall I wrote a column predicting that the trading range for the price of oil would be $80-125 for the next two years. I now want to revise that forecast. When I made that prediction, the price has recently crossed $80, charting new territory. While obviously not surprised, I did let all the disbelief I had been subjected to in my predictions to give me a sense of caution. Since $80 was the new high, and I was saying that it would be the price floor for the foreseeable future I thought it would be a correct floor. I did say in that column that …

It is generally accepted that America could immediately reduce energy consumption by at least 20% if intelligent conservation efforts were implemented at all levels.  As a country, we established energy use habits decades ago when all forms of energy were relatively cheap.  Lights on in high rise building at night, corridors in hotels and office buildings that are almost painfully bright, lights on in empty rooms and offices, and escalators that move even when no one is on them.

This all came back to me yesterday.  I am in Brazil to deliver a speech to the top executives of a company whose annual management meeting theme is “Leading the Future”.  When I checked into the upscale, business hotel here in Joinville, in the Santa Catarina state, I went through a sequence that reminded me once again how energy wasteful the U.S. is.  The elevator would not operate unless I inserted my room key card into a slot.  As an American I thought this was a good security feature.  Then, when I got off at my floor the hallway was completely dark.  With mild trepidation I stepped out and the lights went on due to a motion sensor.  I proceeded to head down a dark corridor and, every 20 feet or so the lights went on as the sensors tracked my progress to my room.  This of course is a feature widely in use in Europe, …

Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier.  In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction.  Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100.  This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country. 

Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 – 125 for the foreseeable future.  The current global marketplace is such that it is hard to imagine the price dipping below $80 but there are a lot of scenarios that could ultimately drive it above $125.   The actual trigger for the recent price increase is an explosion in a Texas refinery that processes 70,000 barrels a day, which is less that one half of one percent of the daily U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels a day. That is how tight the oil market is.  There is little or no excess refining capacity in the world.

Demand is and will consistently outstrip supply in the oil market.  Any perceived fall off in U.S. consumption due to an economic slow down will be more than offset by the increased demand from China and India and other developing countries.  This will be a constant for the foreseeable future.  When one layers on top of that supply/demand tension such things as …

This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008.  The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year.  In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end. 
We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age.  The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age.  This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.
General Trends and Dynamics
1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering its’ global stage of evolution.  Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary.  The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic.  This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on.  It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right.  Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..
2. The Flow to Individual …