There is no question in my mind but that oil will rise to at least $100 a barrel within the next year. It is easy to see a scenario of $125 a barrel price in the same time frame. The triple digit price of oil will become the norm. Recently it has been trading in the $80-90 range, and as it approached the upper end of that range the media began again covering the story with “sky is falling” concern about what this might mean for the economy. This reminded me of the comment that James Schlesinger, the first U.S. Secretary of Energy made about the country’s approach to energy: “We have only two modes – complacency and panic”.

At the beginning of this year, when oil was trading in the $50-60 price range, I was on a television program and predicted that the price would be up dramatically in 2007 and could easily top $80. That statement came not from any expertise about an ability to correctly predict commodity prices but from the fact that, as a futurist, I look at the long term, at overarching trends and patterns. The price of oil is on a long term up trend and will continue that way for years into the future.

Some historical perspective will be helpful. The price of oil from 1900 to the early 1970s was single digit. Then the OPEC oil embargo quickly quadrupled the price of oil. The price of oil hit a then all-time high of $41/barrel …

In the last year I have written often about disintermediation. It is a force that is affecting numerous industries. Residential real estate, as I have written here, is one of those businesses. Any business that has historically inserted itself between buyer and seller and has also kept market information to itself is a business that sooner or later will have to redefine itself in this Internet age. As mentioned in this column, both the stock brokerage and travel agent business have been substantially changed due to the disintermediating power of the Internet. I predicted last year that residential real estate would soon be facing a similar situation unless it adapted quickly.

The recommendation here has been for residential real estate agents to either lower their commission from the standard 6% or add services and create new value to keep their commission at that level. I want to be very clear: I am not arguing against the status quo of this industry, I am just saying that the trend is obvious and relentless and that it should be fully faced. The old days are over. Agents that do not believe this do so at their peril.

It has been no surprise to me to see numerous articles recently about the dramatic increase in discount real estate brokerages and the growing ‘For Sale By Owner (FSBO)’ trend. In a soft real estate market, brokers are no longer gatekeepers of listings but instead …

What is the future of the book and the book publishing industry?  That was the question that was in my mind while attending the Book Expo America convention this past week end.  In a business that is mature, flat to down in unit sales, and seems to dearly hold on to past business practices, what might be the road map for success over the next twenty years? 

First, let’s take a look at other content businesses, what has happened to them in this digital age, and what that might indicate for the book business.

Music is relevant in that the music business was disintermediated by the Internet.  It is not relevant in that the listener still uses speakers, earphones and ear plugs and, except for convenience and portability doesn’t really care whether the music comes from vinyl, tape, CD or audio file [except of course for dedicated audiophiles]. The physical listening experience is the same. Reading a book is a physical experience that would be fundamentally changed by moving to a screen.
Television/video has also been changed by the Internet.  Viewing is now on a variety of screens, and is essentially becoming on demand.  Even though the variety of screens has increased, viewing is still on a screen, as it has always been.  Where video can give a glimpse into the future of books is that, at least on the Internet, the power of gatekeepers has lessened.  “Viewer generated content” might be analogous to self publishing via the …

One of the many unique aspects of the time in which we live is that it is no longer unusual to have more than one career in a lifetime.  Since the beginning of the Information Age 30 years ago it has been increasingly common for adults to have two or even three careers during their lifetimes.  Historically this is absolutely understandable.

Three hundred years ago one usually did the same work that one’s parents did, and usually in the same place. One hundred years ago, in the middle of the Industrial Age when new careers or jobs were being constantly created, people started to do different work than their parents.  While you might have entered a new field, you usually spent your entire work life in one profession or with one company, until that day when you turned 65, got the gold watch and retired.  It must be noted that the life expectancy three hundred years ago was around 45-50 years and that one hundred years ago it was 55-60 in the U.S.  Now that life expectancy is 75-80 years.

We are now living in the mature stage of the Information Age when everything is much faster, we are all living a lot longer, and we are working to an older age[It was not until 1986 that the mandatory retirement age of 65 was struck down in the U.S.]. The logical extension of these trends is that many people are having two or more careers.  A lot of the changing of careers …