Last week the Internationale Funkausstellung was held in Berlin.  This is the largest consumer electronics convention in Europe, equaling and perhaps surpassing the CES show that occurs every January in Las Vegas.  One of the central themes behind major new product launches was the Internet and the central role it is now beginning to play in the wirelessly networked home.

This has been something that has interested me for years and a subject about which I have written here and here in this blog.  As recently as five years ago, the topic of convergence was a speculative, hot one in media and technology circles.  The convergence discussed then was would there be convergence of the computer and the television?  Would people ever fully accept viewing television content on the computer?   Well we now have the answer to that loud and clear:  yes! Even Steven Jobs doubted this would happen.  He famously said that the profound difference between computers and televisions was that people leaned forward when interacting with computers and leaned back when watching television and that therefore this content convergence would not happen.  Well it did.

Now this convergence is combining with wireless connectivity to begin to change the connection of technology in the home.  The long predicted vision of technologists and futurists of the home of the future where everything is connected and can be monitored and controlled is now beginning.

Sony introduced plug-in adapters to allow some of its Bravia television sets to connect wirelessly to the …

The tag line of this blog is “A Future Look at Today”. It is not a political blog, nor is this a political column. I have assiduously kept politics out of this space leaving partisan conversations about campaign issues to others. There is a lot of heat around partisan politics and such heat can prevent clarity. As a futurist I think about the future by looking at the trends, patterns and dynamic forces that exist or are beginning to form. Readers of this column come here to get a sense of what might happen and why. That is the purpose of this column today.

In my “2007/2008″ column published on January 1, 2008, before the Iowa caucus, my forecast for the 2008 election was:

“.. it looks to this observer that 2008 will be a Democratic landslide year on the order of 1936 and 1964. Who will be the President in 2009? The junior senator from Illinois.”

This forecast was and is based upon history, and an analysis of certain forces currently reshaping the world today. As a number of people who eagerly made bets with me in 2007 can attest, I have been saying that Barack Obama would be the next President of the United States for more than a year. The reason is that he represents, embodies and is utilizing powerful new forces that are in ascendancy today.

Disintermediation

Disintermediation has been, and will continue to be one of the most powerful forces in the …

There have been many cultural changes so far in 2008.  Some of these changes are in response to the rapid increase in the price of oil and other commodities.  Some of these changes have been due to technological innovations.  In both cases new behavior patterns are being established that will, to some degree become permanent and will create new dynamics in certain industries.  Today we take a look at some of the predictions made here last January.

Shopping

The predicted shopping trends predicted were written with a long term view.  What is interesting is that the high price of gasoline has accelerated the speed of implementation of some of the forecasts.  On shopping, this column forecast:

“Shopping behavior will noticeably change……purchases will go down per capita. This will due to belt tightening but also due to the effect of the explosive growth that on-line sales will now have on off-line sales.”

This forecast was based both upon the long term up trend of on-line shopping but also upon the short term pessimism felt about the economy.  When people feel uncertain about their economic future they cut back on major expenses.  This explains the significant decline in auto sales this year and the bankruptcies of several retail chains.  What has been interesting is the reality that much of the growth in on-line sales at the expense of off-line sales is due to $4. a gallon gasoline.  When one can order on-line and have the merchandise delivered with low cost or free shipping, it is cheaper …

[Note to readers:  this column was written a number of weeks ago, but was in holding as I wrote columns about some more immediate travel related subjects.  With the turmoil in Tibet this past week, it is clearly a topic in the news.  I have updated the prior column to include the recent upheavals.] 

When countries or cities submit bids for hosting the Olympics it is usually done with a great sense of pride and boosterism.  The governments and economic vested interests all look to hosting the Olympics as a way to showcase their “world class city”.  In the case of the upcoming Olympics in Beijing, it is clearly the goal of the Chinese government to make clear to the world that the formerly communist country is now a major player on the world stage.  The world has recognized and accepted the growing economic might of the country.  The Chinese government wants to make a further impression on the world that they are culturally and architecturally a world class nation.

I have written here about what has occurred in China over the last 20 years.  Basically they have collapsed the 200 year timeline of the U.S. to move from an agricultural economy to an information economy to a period one tenth in length.  This has never been done on such a magnitude, and as a result there have been many problems, as written here.  I think that this will be the reason that the 2008 Beijing Olympics may turn out …

Amazon’s introduction of the Kindle electronic book reader feels momentous. It is the first time that the long anticipated, much debated future of the ‘ebook’ feels ready to begin in a meaningful way.

During the past ten years there has been great debate about the ebook.  Generally speaking there have been three points of view on the subject.  The first one comes from the true believers that the ebook is inevitable and that it would ultimately gain a noticeable and then sizable market share of publishing.  The second viewpoint is that while there would be a market for the ebook it would never really capture more than a marginal market share.  The third viewpoint was that the physical experience of reading an actual book is such an integral part of the reading experience that the ebook would never really catch on.  I am one of those that hold the first point of view.

In a column here last summer I wrote:

“e-books will ultimately gain significant market share.  This will occur when there is an ‘iPod moment’; when a device comes out that is low priced, wonderful to use and perceived to be cool or hip.  Once this occurs there will be a rapid increase in the percentage of books sold digitally, probably leveling off around 40 — 50% by 2025. Impulsive buys, such as at airport book stores will become “purchase, plug-in and download’. While those of us who have grown up with the wonderful tactile experience of ‘curling up with …