It was just reported that, as expected, there are now more Internet users in China than in the U.S. As of last month there were 253 million Internet users in China as compared to 220 million in the U.S. What is striking is that in just the last year, the number of new users in China was 90 million, or a growth rate of more than 50%. That annual increase in users is more that the total number of users in most countries in the world.

There are several interesting aspects to these numbers. Of course, since China is the most populous country in the world with more than 1.3 billion people, it will ultimately have more of most any category of people, based on size alone. It is interesting that there seems to be an age divide in China. Not only are 70% of the country’s internet users under the age of 30, 90% of the new users in the last six months were high school students. This reflects the fact that the booming economy in China is led and fueled by those under the age of 40 as many of the older generations are still anchored in the past.

It is possible that, if current growth rates continue, China could have twice as many Internet users as the U.S. within two years. It is when that happens that Internet usage in China will bring about significant change. The 253 million Internet …

The tag line of this blog is “A Future Look at Today”. It is not a political blog, nor is this a political column. I have assiduously kept politics out of this space leaving partisan conversations about campaign issues to others. There is a lot of heat around partisan politics and such heat can prevent clarity. As a futurist I think about the future by looking at the trends, patterns and dynamic forces that exist or are beginning to form. Readers of this column come here to get a sense of what might happen and why. That is the purpose of this column today.

In my “2007/2008″ column published on January 1, 2008, before the Iowa caucus, my forecast for the 2008 election was:

“.. it looks to this observer that 2008 will be a Democratic landslide year on the order of 1936 and 1964. Who will be the President in 2009? The junior senator from Illinois.”

This forecast was and is based upon history, and an analysis of certain forces currently reshaping the world today. As a number of people who eagerly made bets with me in 2007 can attest, I have been saying that Barack Obama would be the next President of the United States for more than a year. The reason is that he represents, embodies and is utilizing powerful new forces that are in ascendancy today.

Disintermediation

Disintermediation has been, and will continue to be one of the most powerful forces in the …

There have been many cultural changes so far in 2008.  Some of these changes are in response to the rapid increase in the price of oil and other commodities.  Some of these changes have been due to technological innovations.  In both cases new behavior patterns are being established that will, to some degree become permanent and will create new dynamics in certain industries.  Today we take a look at some of the predictions made here last January.

Shopping

The predicted shopping trends predicted were written with a long term view.  What is interesting is that the high price of gasoline has accelerated the speed of implementation of some of the forecasts.  On shopping, this column forecast:

“Shopping behavior will noticeably change……purchases will go down per capita. This will due to belt tightening but also due to the effect of the explosive growth that on-line sales will now have on off-line sales.”

This forecast was based both upon the long term up trend of on-line shopping but also upon the short term pessimism felt about the economy.  When people feel uncertain about their economic future they cut back on major expenses.  This explains the significant decline in auto sales this year and the bankruptcies of several retail chains.  What has been interesting is the reality that much of the growth in on-line sales at the expense of off-line sales is due to $4. a gallon gasoline.  When one can order on-line and have the merchandise delivered with low cost or free shipping, it is cheaper …

In the column “2007/2008″ published on January 1, 2008 I made a prediction concerning media that is worth revisiting.

At the beginning of the year the entertainment industry was in the middle of the writer’s strike.  I wrote:   “The writers’ strike in the entertainment business is now two months old. Its’ length, the animosity it has engendered and the immediate consequences of it are significant.  It has within it the seeds of structural and permanent change in the entertainment business……While the detailed outcome of the strike is not clear, what is clear is that it will have a permanent structural impact on the entertainment business.  It is a “change event” of some magnitude.”

This has turned out to be an accurate prediction.  All one has to do is take a look at the broadcast networks’ schedules to see the affects of the writer’s strike.  The once proud networks, home to magnificent dramas and classic comedy, now are reduced to filling evening after evening with reality competition shows.  Who wants to marry the farmer?  Who is the best celebrity dancer?  Which grossly overweight contestant will lose the most pounds?  These programs all fit under the umbrella title of ‘reality programming’ yet we know that they aren’t real in the true sense, but are staged, rehearsed, manipulated and highly edited.

Broadcast television through the decades was defined by great writing.  Think Rod Serling, Norman Lear,  Matt Groening and many others.  The networks stood for the highest quality television.  This quality came from great writing. The …