Evolution Shift - David Houle, Futurist, Disintermediation, Future Trends, Future of Energy

A Relevant Past Column – Privacy

david — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 01:00:33 +0000

As a futurist I often feel as though I live in a déjà- vu world. I write about something and then months or years later it occurs or becomes something that is on the minds of a lot of people.

This is the first of what may be occasional columns from years past written here that, for one reason or another, are relevant to what is currently going on in the world. As a futurist I try to write “ahead of the curve” or to take a “future look at today”. Sometimes old columns resonate today. This is one of them.

The recent – and ongoing – flap about privacy settings on Facebook is just the latest incident that makes us think about our privacy in this age of connectivity and social media. When we are confronted with this issue, predictably we seem to recoil and speak about invasion of privacy. We get upset that our personal data is or could be shared with people we don’t know.

Facebook, with almost too numerous to count privacy settings, is clearly a conflicted company when it comes to privacy. It has a culture, purpose and business model that is completely about sharing, or sharing completely. A complete surrender of privacy is the ideal.

To focus on Facebook and other social media as a place of concern for privacy is myopic. We all long ago gave up privacy for the sake of convenience. In the larger scheme of things we have willingly, if not fully consciously, given up our privacy over the past few decades.

The recent privacy flap at Facebook has caused many people in audiences I address to ask about privacy as it relates to social media. I end up referring to a column I wrote almost four years ago and simply say: “As technology advances, privacy declines”

Below is that slightly tongue in cheek column, written in 2006.

Technology Advances, Privacy Declines

One of the trade offs we seem to have accepted during the past 20 years is a loss of privacy. None of us say we approve of that, but we have embraced technology in such a way that a diminished sense of privacy has occurred. The portability of storage and computing, as discussed on this blog in earlier posts, is a major reason. The easier small storage devices and laptops are to carry, the higher probability of theft.

It was revealed the other day that a laptop, with personnel records for 382,000 Boeing employees was stolen. This was the third time in 13 months that this has occurred with Boeing. Of course Boeing is not the only company where this has happened. Laptops are portable and easy to put into a briefcase or bag. Someone goes up for another cup of coffee at Starbucks or leaves their desk to go to the bathroom and in a few seconds the laptop and all the data on it is stolen. We all enjoy the fact that we can have a computer with us wherever we are. The freedom to work wherever and whenever we want is a very empowering thing, something that didn’t exist 20 years ago.

In the 1960s and 1970s, computing equaled mainframe computing. Companies and universities all had these large machines that were in air conditioned, controlled access environments. Access was highly monitored, records were kept for all activities and people even dressed in white coats. It looked and felt like the religion of the main frame. Yes, you could probably steal a computer tape, but you would have to have another main frame computer to access the data. This is so different than today when every desk has a PC and laptops are everywhere.

The other key development of course is the Internet and the fact that all these computers are connecting to it. This connectivity allows remote access from practically anywhere. Firewalls become challenges to hackers. Identities stolen from computers via the Internet can be almost instantaneously monetized. It seems like every day there is an article or story in the media about identity theft. So our highly connected lives open us up to risk. This also opens us up to tracking. What web sites we visit on the Internet. What we buy. Who we communicate with and what we say. Of course, now with massive use of wireless we have grown accustomed to using public wireless hot spots for our most personal communications and transactions. We learned a decade ago that cell phones were less secure than land lines, yet that certainly didn’t compel us to stop using them. In fact, cell phone usage has exploded.

Entire new security businesses such as consumer virus protection software, and security gurus have emerged to help companies protect their data and confidential information. We all want to be connected and protected at the same time. If you truly want to keep your communications private, think back on all the mafia movies you have seen. To avoid being bugged at home or at the office, or being wiretapped via the phone, mafia dons would meet on a park bench or take a walk on a construction site to discuss ‘business’. Once you move to most electronic communications you increase the risk of intrusion, observation or theft. Hey, what’s so bad about sitting on a park bench on a sunny day?

Some Recent Columns at Oprah.com

david — Sun, 27 Jun 2010 21:52:25 +0000

Many of you have been loyal readers of this blog for years and to all of you I loudly say thank you! As many of you may know, about four months ago I became a featured contributor on Oprah.com writing a column every other week. In fact, since I started to write that column it is clear that a lot of the new email subscribers to this blog are readers from www.oprah.com/davidhoule .

The columns I write there are different in subject, tone and address issues not covered here. I would like to use this column to direct you to some of the columns you might find of interest. To those new readers from Oprah.com I thank you in advance for your patience as you may have read some or all of these columns before. If not, here is a chance to catch up on what you missed.

The Future of Shopping In this column I take a look at shopping past present and future. For those of you that enjoyed my columns on Dubai, I discuss how the future of shopping can be seen there.

Your Kids Are Different …. And It’s OK! Part One As parents we realize how different our kids are from us, how the landscape in which they have grown up is so different from the landscape of our childhood and youth. In this column I take a look at the Millennial generation.

Your Kids Are Different….And It’s OK! Part Two. Here I look at the incredibly fascinating Digital Natives, the first generation in human history to be born into the new digital realm.

Are Our Digital Habits Making Us Dumber? Recently there has been a lot of discussion about whether all our new connectivity and the digital devices we use have shortened our attention spans and are making us dumb. Through the lens of history I take a completely counter view and suggest that new transformative technologies have always caused changes in thinking and behavior.

As many of you have posted comments to this blog I invite you to sign up and join in the conversation at www.oprah.com/davidhoule

A 21st Century City – Part Two

david — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 21:00:40 +0000

In my last column I wrote about Dubai and that it is a 21^st Century city. As a futurist I felt at home being there as it feels like a city that is fully looking forward rather than stuck in a legacy past. In this column I want to take a look at some of the dynamics that have shaped this city to be so forward facing. Too many cities in the world are stuck in the past, the recent past or are looking into the future completely through present day problems. What can other cities learn from Dubai?

Dubai exists today because of the vision of a city that was birthed and built by three successive leaders who systematically implemented that vision. The Al Maktoum family has ruled Dubai for the past 200 years. In 1958 Sheik Rashid took over as the ruler of Dubai and was a very hands-on ruler, making twice daily trips through the then small town, seeking interaction with the populace. He saw that the future necessitated the construction of infra-structure, services, and an open policy towards the rest of the world. His view seemed to be decades ahead.

In 1968, the United Kingdom decided to end the treaty it had in place with the seven emirates. Three years later in 1971 the United Arab Emirates was formed and the seven states put in place a Supreme Council that oversaw all the general policies of the U.A.E. This council operated – and operates to this day – as a board of directors, with a President, a Vice President and a Prime Minister. While each emirate is unique and has separate tribal leadership the seven emirates act in collaboration with separate but aligned interests and visions.

In 2006, Sheik Mohammed, the third son of Sheik Rashid became the Emir or ruler of Dubai. His vision was an amplification of his elder brothers and father who had all led Dubai with a complete focus on the future and the opportunities of creating an economic hub of global stature.

Of the seven emirates of the U.A.E., only Abu Dhabi has a large oil reserve, one of the largest in the world. Dubai is the only other emirate with oil reserves and these reserves are expected to be largely depleted in the next decade. Knowing this, the emirs of Dubai realized their future was to create a post-petroleum economy that could succeed without oil revenues and become the financial hub of the Arabian Gulf region and perhaps become a global financial hub. Think the Hong Kong of the Arab Middle East.

Given the relatively small native population and the nomadic history of this population, the Sheiks realized that they needed outside expertise to fulfill their vision. They created free zones where foreign companies could come and operate without having to take on local partners. This was a stroke of visionary genius. In most other developing countries of the world there are all types of restrictions and regulations requiring foreign talent and resources to become minority partners of the local population. This has often led to bureaucracy, graft and slowed development. For companies that had local ownership and control the thinking was to bring in the best and brightest from around the world, support them with necessary social services and let them build successful companies.

A statistic that points to the openness and global orientation of Dubai is that, depending on the source, some 80-90% of the population are not native but have come to this 21^st century city from somewhere else. I had the privilege to speak to the upper management of Dubai based Emirates Airlines and found myself speaking to an audience from all over the world. The airline has employees from 137 countries working for them They have been profitable for 20 years, with no subsidies, just superior management implementing long term strategy with a high degree of innovation. Does that sound like any airline you have experienced recently? By the way my experience flying Emirates was simply the best flying experience I have ever had. A 21^st century airline.

I found it fascinating that there are specific zones in Dubai for varied businesses. There is Media City where media companies from Dubai and around the world can office. There is an Internet City for 21^st century interactive companies and a Knowledge City for educational institutions. There is a major manufacturing area. In other words a long term plan incorporating all aspects of 21^st century economic and cultural endeavor has been physically put in place.

So why is Dubai a 21^st century city and what can other cities learn from Dubai?

First, have a long range vision that looks out several decades. Then work back from that vision and put in place the services, economic structures and infrastructures necessary to support that vision. Attract competent and world class managerial talent to build companies and institutions that manifest that vision. Create a sense of security and freedom for those that live there. Okay, quick, how many cities does that remind you of? That’s the point, not many, or perhaps, not any.

Of course the benefit Dubai has that most other cities don’t is that it is brand new, only few decades old. That means that it doesn’t have to deal with legacies of past land use, old infrastructures, embedded politics and entrenched vested interests. That is in fact why it can and will so quickly become a 21^st century city. One aesthetic note worth mentioning is the stunning modern beauty of many of the high rises built in the last 15 years. It is as though the major global architecture firms decided – and were encouraged – to create leading edge designed buildings that might not have been allowed through other urban panning boards. Some of the most beautiful high rise buildings I have ever seen are in Dubai.

Cities of the world do need to cherish their respective heritages. They need to honor their great histories. That said, they need to stop looking backward, stop thinking that sports teams are the answer to renewal, stop honoring the status quo and the entrenched powers. The Shift Age and the Transformation Decade demand that cities rethink and reinvent themselves. The definition of transformation is a change in nature, shape, character and form of an entity. What is the vision for the city in 2020 and in 2030? What cities can clearly answer that question? Dubai can.

Granted Dubai operates as a benevolent dictatorship but it does seem to be benevolent and certainly feels modern and safe. As long as local Arab customs and beliefs are respected one can live a mostly free and energizing life. The feeling is one of vibrant future facing optimism. Sure there has been a recession that slammed growth to a halt. Sure there are underlying issues that need to be resolved. Sure there will be traffic congestion until the transit system is better integrated. All said being in Dubai is being in a city of today and tomorrow.

A 21st Century City – Part One

david — Sun, 16 May 2010 21:29:03 +0000

In recent columns, here and here, I have written about how looking at the world through a lens of centuries can help to clarify what is in ascendancy and what is in decline. Is something 20^th Century or is it 21^st Century?

I recently spent five days in Dubai. Dubai is truly a 21^st Century City. It is a city built for and in this century. It is based entirely on a vision of the future. As a futurist I look into and think about the future. I look at trends, patterns, dynamics and directional energies to see what lies ahead. It is clear that many large entities and certainly most cities do not really focus on the future let alone the long term. Most are preoccupied with current problems, the next quarter or the next year. This is not the case with Dubai.

50 years ago Dubai was a small town of thousands resting of a couple of sandy spits of land and now it is a sprawling city of 1.5 million. Due to the benevolent and visionary leadership of three sheiks over the last 60 years a forward thinking city has been created. What this vision has manifested is truly remarkable.

Many of you have heard of the huge debt issues that surfaced last fall in Dubai. This is true, with many building sites idle. This is no different that all the building sites, vacant blocks and endless numbers of dark McMansions littering the landscape here in the U.S.

What I see in the U.S. is a result of blind over optimism driven by greed, fueled by lending fraud that was detached from underlying realities. What I saw in Dubai was a long term cohesive development vision that has been temporarily whacked by the 2008-2010 Global Great Recession.

Whenever a vision is brought into being, by definition it is out in front, ahead of its time and therefore subject to more risk and possibly ridicule than more traditional efforts. This is why Dubai’s current problems have been magnified as it is a large vision, ahead of its’ time that has suffered a significant but temporary setback. As a Chicagoan I am familiar with Daniel Burnham and am convinced that the sheiks were either aware of, or are channeling Burnham’s underlying philosophy which was “Make no small plans!” Dubai is a large visionary plan, temporarily slowed.

In the past 15 years literally dozens of high rises and skyscrapers have been built. As an ardent fan of modern architecture, I was stunned by the beauty of many of these buildings. It is as though the openness of the canvas and vision prompted architectural firms to be creative and leading edge in a way not allowed elsewhere. To see this architectural beauty and mass on a desert landscape at the edge of the Arabian Gulf was both disorienting and intoxicating. The feeling was that of looking at an urban desert oasis for the 21^st century.

For the past four years I have thought that as a futurist, one of the places in the world that held both the greatest appeal and where I might offer the highest value professionally as a futurist was the U.A.E. (United Arab Emirates). This is because it is one of the few countries in the world that seems to be looking out several decades to what it wants to be in 20,30 and 40 years. Again, though the leaders of many countries speak to the future of their countries they are looking toward the next election and long term visions tend to be platitudinous and vague.

There are seven emirates that comprise the U.A.E., and only one, Abu Dhabi that has significant long term oil reserves. Dubai has oil reserves that are expect to be largely depleted by 2015-20. The other five emirates have no oil at all. This reality has prompted the U.A.E. led by Dubai, though largely funded by Abu Dhabi to look ahead into this century to plan for a vibrant economy in a post petroleum world. It seems to be the place in the Arab world that is dynamically and intentionally looking beyond the vast economic wealth created off of oil.

The vision, which can be clearly seen in development, is to create a global financial center that is geopolitically significant and extremely geographically important as the gateway from West to East and North to South.

I was in Dubai to deliver two speeches so I interacted with a lot of people at both gatherings. I was frequently asked if this was my first visit to Dubai and if so what did I think.. After being asked this so often, I distilled the answer down to the simple truth: “As a futurist I feel at home in Dubai”

In the second column on Dubai, I will look at some of the leading edge dynamics the city has put in place that could serve as guidelines and examples of what urban centers around the world could do to reinvigorate themselves for the 21^st Century.

Earth Life/Century

david — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 01:31:53 +0000

We just celebrated the 40^th anniversary Earth Day. Earth Day has been a remarkable creation that, over the last 40 years, created awareness of environmental issues. As with many other issues, a coordinated, well promoted day long event has worked well in this media saturated world. Pick a date, work tirelessly for months, create awareness and provoke large numbers of citizens to take part, take action and demonstrate, all to highlight a cause.

As someone who has written numerous columns on my blog about alternative energy, I was inundated these past few weeks with companies, publishers, PR agents, architects, energy start-ups and associations pitching me story ideas related to Earth Day. Every one beating their environmental drum, loudly. This is to be praised and acknowledged. The difference for me was then instead of one or two requests a week to interview someone or write a column, I was getting half a dozen email pitches a day in the weeks leading up to Earth Day. All I kept thinking was: “Make every day like Earth Day, all year long.”

When the first Earth Day occurred in 1970, some 20 million people took part in some way. It was this huge initial success that turbo charged the environmental movement in the U.S. and around the world. It could be argued that the first photo of the whole earth from space taken in 1968, the resultant Whole Earth Catalog, landing a man on the moon in 1969 and then Earth Day a year later were the cluster of events that catapulted environmentalism into popular consciousness. Of course Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring”, published in 1962 was a key cornerstone to environmentalism in the U.S. and must always be acknowledged for the seminal event that it was.

What needs to happen how is to start thinking about expanding Earth Day. Not a week, not a month, not a year, but a life. It is often thought that, culturally and socially, a new generation comes along every 20 years. The average life expectancy in the U.S. is 75 years. So, for the sake of simple math, let’s consider a lifetime as 50 years, at least in terms of awareness and being able to act independently and with intention. The 50 years between Earth Day #40 and Earth Day #90 is most likely going to be the most critical years in the environmental history of Earth, history being a human creation.

We must now live an Earth Life. As many of us as possible must consider living an Earth Life for the rest of our days on this planet. String together a lifetime of earth days for 50 years. The amount of environmental change of the last 40 years must be multiplied by some factor if, in 2060 we can look at the planet and feel our respective Earth Lives a success.

To some degree, endlessly debated, we are facing a manmade level of disaster and climate and ecological impact unparalleled in our short history on this planet. We can all agree that humanity has had a huge effect on our planet, particularly as we have grown in number. There are now 6.8 billion people alive. The day I was born there were 2.45 billion, so in my lifetime earth’s population expanded by 4.35 billion. It is expected that by Earth Day 90 there will be an additional 3.2 billion added to the current number for a total of 10 billion.

We must now drop the word “day” and substitute the word “life”. We must celebrate our earth lives. It would be great if every day, not just the weeks leading up to a day in April, I received half a dozen pitches for environmental developments, initiatives, breakthroughs and new product ideas that all supported a greener human society.

Expand this vision even further. Make this century the Earth Century. That is 32,850 earth days remaining. Every day this century is an earth day. Actually, the Earth was here billions of years before us and our efforts are not to save Earth, as it will survive, but to save life as we know it and currently define it. Perhaps we should change the language and make it the Life Century because if we don’t live the rest of our days as earth days, it is the Life on this planet that will be threatened.