Two years ago in this blog, I wrote a futuristic column from April 20, 2009. The title of the column was “Remember When Gas Was Cheap?” At that time I predicted that the price of oil in early 2008 would reach $125 and that in April 2009 it would be $137.
In January of 2007 I was invited on the “First Business” syndicated business program to discuss the price of oil for the remainder of the year. At the time the price was $53 a barrel. I basically told the flabbergasted reporter that I thought the price of oil would most definitely cross $80 a barrel and would approach, but not reach the $100 a barrel price. The counterbalancing view was some “oil industry expert” who said the price range for the year would be $50-70 a barrel. Of course we know what happened.

Last fall I wrote a column predicting that the trading range for the price of oil would be $80-125 for the next two years. I now want to revise that forecast. When I made that prediction, the price has recently crossed $80, charting new territory. While obviously not surprised, I did let all the disbelief I had been subjected to in my predictions to give me a sense of caution. Since $80 was the new high, and I was saying that it would be the price floor for the foreseeable future I thought it would be a correct floor. I did say in that column that …

The magnitude of the energy crisis we now face in the U.S. cannot be overstated. It is not just about cutting the emission of greenhouse gases, the increasing price of petroleum or the fact that we are dependent for oil on countries that only hold us in high regard as customers. It is about the fact that our entire physical landscape and a large part of our social and economic interactions are predicated on the assumption of cheap petroleum, an assumption that is no longer valid.

Petroleum will continue to rise in price as I have consistently predicted in this column. We are most likely going through peak oil and when we accept responsibility for contributing to global warming we realize that all fossil fuels and the burning of them has incredibly dire unintended consequences. In addition we are a debtor nation with a crumbling and in need of repair infrastructure. Where is this leading us?

I have long been a fan of James Howard Kunstler’s book ‘The Long Emergency’ and have recommended it to many people. [In addition his blog is one I recommend in conversation and have recommended on my links page since the inception of Evolution Shift.]� This best selling book details in a persuasive manner the coming deconstruction of American society due to the converging crises mentioned above. Having read this non-fiction book from a novelist, it was no surprise to find that Kunstler was writing a novel about ��post long emergency’ America. It is called ‘World Made …

Regular readers know that I have often written about Intellectual Property in this space. IP is increasingly important in the valuation of all enterprises. I provided a historical context to this trend here, and later talked about Ocean Tomo, one of the companies that is helping to create the IP marketplace.

As mentioned in one of the earlier columns, the percentage of the aggregate value of the S&P 500 companies that is IP has gone from 17% in 1975 to 80% in 2005. The transactional process of IP, until very recently, has largely been the same as it was 20 years ago. This inevitably means that a more fluent, liquid and transparent marketplace for IP must develop. One of the initial developments over the past two years has been the IP auction. While there are a number of these auctions, I have been privy to the Ocean Tomo auctions and using the results from these auctions alone the trend lines are very clear.

Two weeks ago, Ocean Tomo had its’ spring auction in San Francisco. Once again record prices for IP portfolios were reached. One of the lots up for auction sold for $6,600,000, setting a new world record for a patent lot at a multi-lot live auction. The lot was for processing digital data in bit streams In addition there were three other lots that resulted in seven figures sales. What is interesting about these numbers is they are solidly going …

This thought came to me while standing on Omaha Beach, one of the American landing beaches on D-Day. I think about the future and it is clear to me that humanity will need to find greatness to face some of the issues it faces now and in the next decade.  We need to rise up to a level of commitment, collaboration, will and innovation that seems far from universal today.  There is no question but that we can and that we will need to do so.  The question is how we rise up to this level of greatness. 

Standing on Omaha Beach, and later the same day on Utah Beach I was struck by the magnitude of D-Day.  The heroism, valor, loss of life, and incredible stories of individual and collective victory are usually what comes to mind when thinking of this invasion.  Those thoughts usually are of the soldiers, but there were larger forces at work.  Things were done that had never been done before.  Plans were created based on no prior human experience.  Let me give you just one example.
The Nazi military command built unprecedented fortifications on the …