20th Century Versus 21st Century
March 23rd, 2010
In the past year I have found that framing conversations about certain topics with the context of being of the 20th century or of the 21st century to be clarifying for most people.
I have written extensively about humanity being in transition between the Information Age and the Shift Age. Those who have heard me speak or read my writings come to understand and accept this. That said, this is a higher concept than the simple reality of the calendar. No one can dispute the numerical fact that we are 10% into the 21st Century, unless you want to debate whether the scientific concept of linear time verses the older concepts of cyclical time or chaotic time.
Once you start to look at the world, its’ institutions and both business categories and specific companies, through this 20th versus 21st century filter, things become clearer.
Here are some examples:
| 20th Century | 21st Century | |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive | Chrysler | Tesla |
| Airport domestic | LaGuardia | Denver International |
| Airport international | Heathrow | Montevideo |
| Media | long list | Internet |
| Political Parties | Democratic
Republican |
??? |
| Energy | fossil fuels | alternative energy of all sorts |
| Organizations | hierarchical | flat |
| Transaction costs | significant | moving toward free |
| Production | mass | micro |
| Authority | vertical | horizontal |
I could go on for pages, but the lists above should both provide clarity and food for thought.
A very simple way to look at the world is through this filter as it will bring clarity as to what will last and what won’t, to what will be significant and what will not be. It is clear that companies created in the 20th century that …
The Electric Car – An Update on the Mass Market
May 26th, 2008
When I wrote my first column on the electric car early in 2007 it was triggered by the announcement that GM was going to bring the Chevrolet Volt to market in 2010. As stated then, this was a significant event in that this was going to be the first plug-in car produced in significant volume and at an affordable price. GM was underscoring this by putting the Chevrolet name plate on the car. Plug-in cars are important as they have the potential for transportation with no heat and emission generating combustion. Significant volume is important because anything less will not lessen use of fossil fuels and resultant greenhouse emissions.
The reason that the Volt cannot be produced prior to 2010 is that there is no current battery technology that will work for the consumer auto market. The drive train battery must be able to last for 5,000 charges, not generate excessive heat, be able to function from -10 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit, and have a charge last for a minimum of 40-50 miles. Since the battery technology of choice for GM is lithium ion, the type of battery used in laptops, the challenge is clear to anyone experiencing the heat and short length of use of a laptop on battery power. Think of bundling a hundred such batteries to power a car. I have written two columns in this space and in my new book “The Shift Age†about the quest for the …
The Revolution in Storage
May 12th, 2008
One of the technological innovations I have written about here and here in this column has been the reduction in size and cost of computer storage. It is one of the more significant developments in computing over the past two decades. It is part of the foundation that has allowed the explosion in mobile computing to occur. It is an integral part of the massive media files we can all now assemble and of course in the ability for all of us to become ever more productive as individuals.
Seagate, the largest producer of hard drives recently announced that it had just shipped its’ one billionth hard drive. In 1979 the company was an early trailblazer in the manufacturing of hard drives small enough for the early PC’s that were just being produced. Their first product was the ST506 which held just 5MB of storage, was 5.5 inches wide and weighed 5 pounds. This was revolutionary compared to the 14 inch and 8 inch drives that were standard at the time. This first innovation of size reduction has, of course continued to this day. A similar sized external hard drive today would hold not 5MB of storage, but 500 Gigabytes of storage, an increase of 100,000% in terms of capacity to weight and size.
What is even more revolutionary is the reduction in cost of hard drive storage. The ST506 was priced at $1,500 for a cost of $300 per megabyte. The most recent Seagate hard …











