Recently, I have been struck by the number of anniversaries of significant events that have been acknowledged this year.  This past summer was the 40th anniversary of the “Summer of Love”.  August was the 60th anniversary of the independence of India and Pakistan.  This week marked the 50th anniversary of the desegregation of public schools in Little Rock Arkansas.  This year is also the 10th anniversary of the opening of the Guggenheim museum in Bilbao, Spain.  Next week is the 50th anniversary of the launch of Sputnik.  All of these events were very significant events.

Why is a column with the tag line “A Future Look at Today” taking a look back on significant events?  The accelerating speed of change is the reason.  It is clear that, in the past 200 years, the speed of change has been accelerating.  During the 1800s, the first full century of the industrial revolution, the rate of change was noticeably faster than the 1700s.  The amount of change that occurred in the 1900s dwarfed that of the prior century.  The speed of change coming into the current century is much faster than it was coming into the last century, perhaps ten times faster.    In the Shift Age we are now in, the speed of change has literally become part of our environment.

What all this means is that the next 10, 40, 50 and 60 years will all encompass more change, more innovation, more acceleration than in the same amounts of time looking back to the …

Fifteen years ago, when Americans went shopping and came across the  phrase “Made in China” it usually was on small, inexpensive trinkets, toys and souvenirs.  Ten years ago we started to see these words on apparel.  Five years ago we started to see these words seemingly everywhere.  During the last five months, if we saw these words it might have meant the death of our pets, food borne illness or perhaps poisoning. [My favorite editorial cartoon on this subject showed two people holding the same product.  One was saying “A great dessert topping!”  The other saying “Cleans even the toughest stains”].

The Chinese government of course has taken this issue very seriously as the avalanche of billions of dollars of exports is being put at risk.  Doing what they have historically done, they executed the former government official who had been the head of the State Food and Drug Administration for taking bribes and looking the other way on issues of safety and product production. In the last week they have also closed down the companies that have shipped poisonous products overseas. We certainly need to hold the Chinese accountable for any and all defective and life threatening products that make it to the U.S.  The historical levels of government oversight in the production of goods, be it labor conditions or product quality is much lower in China, and many other developing countries for that matter, than in the U.S.

The larger context through which this issue must be viewed is that …

Last Friday, June 15, 2007, a 1957 Plymouth Belvedere was lifted out of its’ underground vault near Tulsa Oklahoma.  It had been buried on June 15, 1957 to both commemorate the 50th anniversary of Oklahoma becoming a state, and to serve as a time capsule for the  100th anniversary in 2007.  This led me to immediately think about what might be put into the ground today that would be unearthed in 2057.

First however, some interesting facts about the unearthed Plymouth. The car had been buried in a structure that was built to withstand a nuclear blast.  When the car was unearthed, it was discovered that this structure was no barrier to ground water, which had seeped in and converted the dirt around the car into mud, making it look like a victim of a flood.  This of course made me think about all the nuclear fall-out shelters that were being built in the late 1950s and early 1960s when a nuclear war with the Soviet Union was a real perceived threat. An ever present threat far greater in scope than the terrorist events we are fearful of today. Well, since radiation moves quickly into water, it looks like the shelters that were going to save the survivors of a nuclear holocaust wouldn’t have done much good.  This suggests that our general perception of our ability to protect against bad events can be woefully over confident.

The time capsule aspect of the Plymouth was of obvious interest.  The car had been buried …

As mentioned in the last column I have had the opportunity to attend several conventions this year.  In January I attended the Consumer Electronic Show and the NATPE television conference, both in Las Vegas and in February the Chicago Auto Show.  This past weekend I was in New York attending the BEA book publishing convention.  I have attended a number of NATPE conventions, having been in the television business, but the other three were new to me to attend as both a futurist and as a member of the press.  Inevitably I spent a bit of time thinking comparatively on all four conventions. 

The CES show is a reflection not only of what is going on in the world, but was also what will be going on.  Given the speed and high level of innovation that technology and particularly the technology that people use for communication, entertainment and work, this convention has become a directional sign post on the future of the world. The media covers this convention excessively, telling its readers and viewers what they will be seeing, buying and using in the months and years ahead. [The comparison of the press rooms of these four conventions was startling.  At any one time there were 50-75 people furiously typing on keyboards in the press rooms of the CES, NATPE and Auto Shows.  I never saw more than 4 or 5 people doing so in the small press room at the BEA].
The NATPE convention is widely …