Evolution Shift - David Houle, Futurist, Disintermediation, Future Trends, Future of Energy » science fiction http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog A Future Look at Today Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:41:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 en hourly 1 Moving Toward the Ultimate Interface http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/08/18/moving-toward-the-ultimate-interface/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/08/18/moving-toward-the-ultimate-interface/#comments Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:12:10 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=263 The human creation of content and the human interface with computers has, for a century, been based upon the use of keyboards. Typewriters, then electric typewriters were used for all forms of written documents be it letters or books. This was used as the data entry for computers in the early days of mainframes.

When the first PCs came along in the 1970s, the keyboard was the method of interface. This was expanded with the introduction of the mouse. What followed was the obvious need to make the human-machine interface more appealing and accessible, so the graphic user interface (GUI) became the next development. Screens with letters and numbers and blinking dots gave way to icons, pictures and animation. This, along with rapidly dropping prices, made the PC and its subsequent family members the laptop and the notebook computers a consumer product with annual sales in the hundreds of millions.

We are now moving to touch and voice interface. This was what was so revolutionary about the iPhone as was discussed here. It points to the touch interface of computers now coming to market. Voice recognition software has now enabled us to speak names for automatic dialing on our phones or in our luxury cars. “Phone home”, famously spoken by ET is now spoken by hundreds of thousands of people every day in this country.

Humanity is now entering the voice and touch phase of interaction with all technology. In speeches I give ...]]> The human creation of content and the human interface with computers has, for a century, been based upon the use of keyboards. Typewriters, then electric typewriters were used for all forms of written documents be it letters or books. This was used as the data entry for computers in the early days of mainframes.

When the first PCs came along in the 1970s, the keyboard was the method of interface. This was expanded with the introduction of the mouse. What followed was the obvious need to make the human-machine interface more appealing and accessible, so the graphic user interface (GUI) became the next development. Screens with letters and numbers and blinking dots gave way to icons, pictures and animation. This, along with rapidly dropping prices, made the PC and its subsequent family members the laptop and the notebook computers a consumer product with annual sales in the hundreds of millions.

We are now moving to touch and voice interface. This was what was so revolutionary about the iPhone as was discussed here. It points to the touch interface of computers now coming to market. Voice recognition software has now enabled us to speak names for automatic dialing on our phones or in our luxury cars. “Phone home”, famously spoken by ET is now spoken by hundreds of thousands of people every day in this country.

Humanity is now entering the voice and touch phase of interaction with all technology. In speeches I give around the country I tell audiences that their grandchildren will look at them with incredulity and say “You actually used keyboards?” or even “Keyboards, what are those?” Today, there are many children who when they see an old typewriter don’t know what it is.

What will the next step be? It will be brainwaves, the electrical impulses of the brain that are the physical manifestation of thought. Thought will be the next and probably ultimate interface.

Look no further than a product that will come to market by the end of the year. A company called Emotiv will be introducing a headset that transfers thoughts to the computer screen. This headset, called the EPOC, has electrodes in strategic places that, when worn properly, will transmit the brainwaves of thoughts to the computer. The headset is customized to the user by the establishment of a baseline of response. The software asks the user to imagine 11 different cognitive actions such as “lift” “pull” and “push”, each for a few seconds. This teaches the system to better read such thoughts. The next step is to have the user look at a screen with an image, such as a cube. The computer program, in game form using an oriental sensei, asks the user to “lift” the cube, or “push” the cube. Evidently, with user concentration, there is a rapid ability to actually lift or push the cube on the screen. This of course creates a positive feedback loop, giving the user greater confidence and ability to concentrate.

The ultimate potential of this takes one into the area of brain to computer interface, and ultimately brain to brain communication. The closer-in potential in technology will be the ability to surf the net by concentrated thinking and the creation of video games that have only headsets with electrodes for gamers to use instead of a hand held controller.

The potential application for humans to focus their thinking, change their behavior and ultimately to tap into the unlimited potential of the human brain and its connection with emotion and intention is transformational and unlimited. What only the highest evolved gurus have been reportedly able to do will start to become common practice. In the year 2020, the Emotiv EPOC headset will be looked upon within this realm as the mid-1970s arcade game of Pong is now looked at within the context of video gaming. It is the beginning of a technological, social and cultural phenomenon.

As Thomas Watson the legendary CEO of IBM, and one of the most important figures in the creation of the computer market once famously said: “Think!”.

]]> http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/08/18/moving-toward-the-ultimate-interface/feed/ 4 Another Cell Phone Milestone http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/02/13/another-cell-phone-milestone/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/02/13/another-cell-phone-milestone/#comments Wed, 13 Feb 2008 14:56:23 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/02/13/another-cell-phone-milestone/ I have written several columns about cell phones in the past. Each one was due to milestones of growth. The speed of growth in the use of cell phones continues to be astounding. It was announced last week by the International Telecommunication Union that the number of total global cell phone subscribers will exceed the number of non-subscribers for the first time in 2008.

When you stop and think about it, this is nothing less than amazing. This means that more than half of all human beings alive today have cell phones. That includes all children, all the elderly, all the people living in poverty around the world, all the people living in underdeveloped countries and all those living in remote areas of the world where there is no cell phone use. Of course there are a number of people in the U.S. and elsewhere that have more than one cell phone, but that is a very small percentage of total users.

In 2006, when doing research on my forthcoming book and for speeches I deliver, the latest projections at that time suggested that this 50% threshold would not be crossed until 2010 at the earliest. This time compression of projected growth of electronic connectedness has become a familiar experience to me. In addition to cell phone subscriber projections there has been an almost constant upward estimation of Internet users and terabytes of content coursing through the Internet. Research conducted ...]]> I have written several columns about cell phones in the past. Each one was due to milestones of growth. The speed of growth in the use of cell phones continues to be astounding. It was announced last week by the International Telecommunication Union that the number of total global cell phone subscribers will exceed the number of non-subscribers for the first time in 2008.

When you stop and think about it, this is nothing less than amazing. This means that more than half of all human beings alive today have cell phones. That includes all children, all the elderly, all the people living in poverty around the world, all the people living in underdeveloped countries and all those living in remote areas of the world where there is no cell phone use. Of course there are a number of people in the U.S. and elsewhere that have more than one cell phone, but that is a very small percentage of total users.

In 2006, when doing research on my forthcoming book and for speeches I deliver, the latest projections at that time suggested that this 50% threshold would not be crossed until 2010 at the earliest. This time compression of projected growth of electronic connectedness has become a familiar experience to me. In addition to cell phone subscriber projections there has been an almost constant upward estimation of Internet users and terabytes of content coursing through the Internet. Research conducted on these growth projections has to be regularly revisited.

We get overwhelmed with this type of rapid growth so that we think that the hard to conceive speed of growth we are living through is as fast as it can get. We then take that rate and project it into the future. Two years later we find that we have underestimated how fast accelerated growth is. We always think that it has to slow down, but it never does. We are racing toward an ever more connected and immediate world.

I believe that this dynamic is moving us to a singularity in connectivity. We are literally erasing time and distance from human communication. If one had the appropriate calling plan from a cellular carrier and one had the phone numbers of the 3 billion people who have cell phones one could immediately connect with that many people at any time, wherever they are. That potential, that growing possibility is unlike anything that has ever existed in human history. In the short time since 1985, humanity has gone from place based phone connectivity for hundreds of millions to mobile connectivity for billions.

Cell phone technology, unlike most other technologies, is a leap frog technology. What that means is that it allows people and countries to leap over some of the historical infrastructure process of development experienced by the countries in the developed world that moved from agricultural, to industrial, to information age and now to shift age societies. Telephone growth was based upon the laying of cable and the stringing of wires; a geographical, wired growth. While the U.S., Europe and Japan went through this sequence of growth, developing countries such as India and China did not. In those two countries, a lot of the industrial to information age development was leap frogged.

Sure, the growth of the Internet has made the laying of cable imperative around the world, but now with the growth of broadband wireless, even that is being leap frogged. When you combine that development with the present and soon to be accelerated growth of Internet access via smart phones the future can be clearly seen. Ever more powerful hand held devices that start to resemble computers combined with ever growing wireless bandwidth creates something that has only been present in science fiction. Humanity has portable, fits in the pocket computing power that also allows us to be all connected.

We all get caught up in the convenience, speed, always available aspect of this development as we talk, type and view content. However, as Marshall McLuhan said, “The medium is the message”. What he meant was that the fact that tens of millions of people were watching television at one time was a more important reality than whatever it was they were watching. This is now true with cell phones and wireless devices. The fact that 3 billion people are now connected with always on connectivity is a fact that is more significant that what they are communicating. It changes the environment in which we live. It is a new environment.

Cell phones are transformative. The cell phone is the global technology. It is one of the key forces that have brought us to the global stage of human evolution. We have created cell phones and they are now one of the forces creating our new world.

]]> http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/02/13/another-cell-phone-milestone/feed/ 3 Sputnik: 50 Years Later http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/10/03/sputnik-50-years-later/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/10/03/sputnik-50-years-later/#comments Wed, 03 Oct 2007 14:02:05 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/10/03/sputnik-50-years-later/ It was 50 years ago this week that the Russians launched Sputnik, the first man made satellite to orbit the earth. It changed the world.  In fact, there are few, if any events of the last 50 years that had such a global impact on just about every aspect of humanity. I can still remember the night that, as a young boy standing in the front yard with my parents; we looked up at the starry sky waiting for Sputnik.  There it was, a slow man-made star moving across the sky. We listened to its’ beeping on the radio. It filled me with wonder.  I did not see it as Russian but rather as man made, that we humans had done this.  The phrase “The sky’s the limit” was now a phrase of the past. This was space!

The launch of Sputnik caused great consternation in the United States.  We had fallen behind the Russians.  We were no longer the only player at the center of the stage of human dreams and aspirations.  It has been universally acknowledged that this event triggered the space race and jump started a decades’ long emphasis on the teaching of science at all levels in the United States.  Within the context of the cold war, ...]]> It was 50 years ago this week that the Russians launched Sputnik, the first man made satellite to orbit the earth. It changed the world.  In fact, there are few, if any events of the last 50 years that had such a global impact on just about every aspect of humanity. I can still remember the night that, as a young boy standing in the front yard with my parents; we looked up at the starry sky waiting for Sputnik.  There it was, a slow man-made star moving across the sky. We listened to its’ beeping on the radio. It filled me with wonder.  I did not see it as Russian but rather as man made, that we humans had done this.  The phrase “The sky’s the limit” was now a phrase of the past. This was space!

The launch of Sputnik caused great consternation in the United States.  We had fallen behind the Russians.  We were no longer the only player at the center of the stage of human dreams and aspirations.  It has been universally acknowledged that this event triggered the space race and jump started a decades’ long emphasis on the teaching of science at all levels in the United States.  Within the context of the cold war, this country felt threatened, vulnerable and challenged.  That history has been well documented, so I will look at other developments that flowed from this event 50 years ago that suggest how truly significant it really was.

Sputnik took space out of science fiction into reality, from what if to now. A manmade object had left the planet which in turn lowered the perceptual wall of limitation to show a field of unimaginable possibility.  It became a reference point and a metaphor of potential as in “Hey, if the Russians can put a satellite into space we can do________(whatever was the dream was being discussed).  It was this type of thinking that led to President Kennedy’s great speech in 1961 about landing a man on the moon and bringing him home safely before the end of the decade.  Thinking opened up.

The seeds of thinking globally were first strewn with Sputnik. When John Glenn and then others orbited the planet, the world listened as one to the human communications from space.  We all watched it on TV.  One of us, a human, was up there. Then there were two of us, then three at a time.  Every launch into space became the dominant news story for the duration of the flight.  It led the newscasts and was always on the front page. Eleven years after Sputnik, on Christmas Eve, 1968, the famous “earth rise” photo was broadcast from Apollo 8.  We all saw the Earth as a beautiful blue planet surrounded by infinite blackness.  Our planetary home seemed so fragile and alone in the universe.

This was the first time in the history of humanity that we could all see a photograph of our planet from space.  This single image, more than any other, launched the environmental movement. It was clear that the planet was precious and finite. The first Earth Day was in 1970, 13 years after the launch of Sputnik.   In some long and winding way, our current global environmental consciousness has grown from the launch of Sputnik.  Marshall McLuhan’s great environmental quote was based in space terminology:  “There are no passengers on Planet Earth, we are all crew”. 

The possibility of space that we all started to live with after Sputnik helped to shape the tumultuous decade of the 1960s.  While Viet Nam, Civil Rights, rock music and drugs are most often sourced as the change agents of this decade, space exploration was also a major influence.  Astrology, a practice of prediction based upon planets became quite popular — Age of Aquarius anyone?  As mentioned above, thinking opened up.  Equal rights?  Why not!  Make love not war?  Yes!  If man can go into space he can solve terrestrial problems.

Sputnik also started something that was quite significant in the United States.  In WWII, the country had been completely mobilized to win the Great War.  What the country accomplished in those few short years had no historical precedence.  After the war, and up until Sputnik, the United States took a much needed prosperity break.  This was the time of Television, suburbia and the car culture.  We had won and we enjoyed the fruits of our winning.  Sputnik triggered a mobilization in the country.  America showed itself to be able to mobilize around a goal, a mission of great historical magnitude.  In 12 short years we went from a small sphere beeping its way around the planet, to actually walking on the moon.  The government, NASA, business and the citizenry all coalesced around this incredibly inspiring mission.

We need to do this again today.  This time not just as a nation but as one of many nations that need to collaborate to solve the global energy problem.  Now, as in 1957, we are threatened, vulnerable and challenged; only now it is all of humanity that faces a massive problem.  Today it is the challenge of finding completely renewable energy and as fast as we can.  Once again the solution is space. A number of the great scientists that have been interviewed here in this blog have supported an “Apollo-like” program to launch and build massive orbital solar space stations.  Kilometers across, these massive ‘solar panels in space’ can provide almost all the energy needs of humanity before the end of this century.  Called Space Solar Power (SSP) or Space Solar Energy (SSE) it is the single best big solution for the planet.

All energy on Earth comes through one process or another from the sun. The sun is the source of all energy in our solar system.  By putting several large solar panels in geo-synchronous orbit around the planet and transmitting the solar energy captured back down to earth we can provide energy to Earth for as long as there is the sun.  The technology is all available and, during the course of the 20 years it will take to put the first  SSP satellite in orbit, it can be further refined.  The good news is that the entrepreneurial space companies in the private sector are fast approaching the time when they can create a business of shuttling back and forth into space, delivering all the materials needed for these massive satellites.  A true partnership of government direction and funding, supported by for profit companies and a vision of hope, unity and survival on the part of all global citizens

It is clear that this goal needs to be set. The citizens of the world and their governments need to come together around another space based vision that will not only solve the most pressing problem of the time but would also, through the effort, forge the beginning of a new global era of cooperation.  Why not!  Look what we did after Sputnik.

 

 

]]> http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/10/03/sputnik-50-years-later/feed/ 2 Sometimes it is Easy to See the Future – 5 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/09/13/sometimes-it-is-easy-to-see-the-future-5/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/09/13/sometimes-it-is-easy-to-see-the-future-5/#comments Fri, 14 Sep 2007 03:52:00 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/09/13/sometimes-it-is-easy-to-see-the-future-5/ To quote from one of the four prior posts with this title:

“While in many areas it might be difficult to see into the future, in the area of technology the future can be readily seen.  The speed of technological invention and innovation moves so quickly that we have barely assimilated a recent breakthrough when another shows up to knock us back on our heels again.  While these innovations do provide a glimpse of our future, they can be disorienting in that they show us that the Present that we are struggling to accept and assimilate will soon be outdated.”

Cloud computing is the name given to the rapidly growing movement of software and storage onto the web. Rather than having all of ones’ software, documents, pictures and email files stashed on the hard drive of a desk top or notebook computer, it will soon be possible to have all of ones digital life reside on a secure place on the web.  While on-line back-up has been around for a while, the breakthrough for cloud computing is that the software one uses will be on the web, not in the computer.  This is the high level battleground between the decades’ old PC model of Microsoft and the more recent Net-centric vision of Google.

Perhaps Bill Gate’s most famous quote is his founding vision for Microsoft:  “A PC on every desktop”.  The manifestation of that vision is the world domination of the Microsoft Empire.  Whether one likes Microsoft or not, this manifested vision helped ...]]> To quote from one of the four prior posts with this title:

“While in many areas it might be difficult to see into the future, in the area of technology the future can be readily seen.  The speed of technological invention and innovation moves so quickly that we have barely assimilated a recent breakthrough when another shows up to knock us back on our heels again.  While these innovations do provide a glimpse of our future, they can be disorienting in that they show us that the Present that we are struggling to accept and assimilate will soon be outdated.”

Cloud computing is the name given to the rapidly growing movement of software and storage onto the web. Rather than having all of ones’ software, documents, pictures and email files stashed on the hard drive of a desk top or notebook computer, it will soon be possible to have all of ones digital life reside on a secure place on the web.  While on-line back-up has been around for a while, the breakthrough for cloud computing is that the software one uses will be on the web, not in the computer.  This is the high level battleground between the decades’ old PC model of Microsoft and the more recent Net-centric vision of Google.

Perhaps Bill Gate’s most famous quote is his founding vision for Microsoft:  “A PC on every desktop”.  The manifestation of that vision is the world domination of the Microsoft Empire.  Whether one likes Microsoft or not, this manifested vision helped to fuel one of the great technological transformations in history.  There is more computing power in my  condo building than NASA had available to support the initial trip to the moon and my laptop has more computing power than was on the spacecraft.  There were more computers sold in the world last year than existed on the entire planet in 1981 when the PC was launched.

Of course the Internet has altered that vision.  Many people now spend more time on the Internet than they do on the contents of their hard drive.  First there was the dissemination of computers to desks, then they got connected by the Net and now the connectedness is becoming more important than what is on the computer.  The next step is that the computer just becomes a connecting device.  Exponentially increasing bandwidth and traffic on the Internet backbone combined with rapidly expanding wireless access and expanding wireless bandwidth has now prepared us for the next step in mobile computing.

All that will be needed for a mobile computing device will be a keyboard, a screen, as ISB port and wireless connectivity.  If one wants to download a file from the Net, then a flash drive with one or more gigabytes of storage can be plugged into the device.  The weight can be less than a pound, the power needs will drop dramatically so the image of road warriors seeking power outlets at airports, or leaning into the weight of their computer bags will become a thing of the past.  Taking it a step further, perhaps all one will need is a lightweight, collapsible keyboard as the screens on airplane seatbacks or flat screen panels every where will have connectivity to the Net.  No longer will there be a fear of losing a laptop or of a computer crash.  The hardware problems of computing will dramatically lessen.

The business ramifications of Cloud computing will be astounding.  The entire economic models of the software business will change.  The entire economic model of the hardware business will change.  Shareware, freeware and connectivity will rule the day.  There will be merging of the hardware, software and connectivity businesses.  In this world it is easy to see Google producing a “Cloudbook” device or Microsoft renting rather than selling its’ Net based software.

Cloud computing will certainly not replace the existing landscape of computing, but it will alter it.  Whenever there is a paradigm shift in some market or area it always alters the usage patterns, protocols and economics of that space. We are moving toward the science fiction visions of William Gibson and Neal Stephenson where people “jack-in” to the Cyberspace parallel reality.

]]> http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/09/13/sometimes-it-is-easy-to-see-the-future-5/feed/ 1 A New Cell Phone Milestone http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/08/28/a-new-cell-phone-milestone/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/08/28/a-new-cell-phone-milestone/#comments Tue, 28 Aug 2007 23:48:37 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2007/08/28/a-new-cell-phone-milestone/ In prior columns, here and here I have written about the transformative power of the cell phone.  Currently there are more than 2.1 billion cell phone accounts in the world and more than 220 million in the US.  More people have cell phones than have computers or use the Internet.  Globally, there are some 15 to 20 million news cell phone accounts opened up every month.

The cell phone has obviously changed the way we communicate.  We are all available all the time no matter where we are.  Text messaging is a new form of communication that did not exist before the cell phone.  We have all experienced altered communication and behavior patterns as a result of this great technology.  What is now becoming clear is that the cell phone is dramatically changing how we view and use the land line phone.

Mediamark Research just released a study that reported that 14% of U.S. adults now live in households with one or more cell phones but no landline phone.  That is an impressive statistic.  What makes it a milestone is that it was also reported that 12.3% of adults live in a household with a landline phone, but no cell phone.  For the first time in the U.S., there are now more cell phone only households than landline only households.  That is significant as the cell phone has moved from being something that was used outside the house to being the only phone.  Conversely, land ...]]> In prior columns, here and here I have written about the transformative power of the cell phone.  Currently there are more than 2.1 billion cell phone accounts in the world and more than 220 million in the US.  More people have cell phones than have computers or use the Internet.  Globally, there are some 15 to 20 million news cell phone accounts opened up every month.

The cell phone has obviously changed the way we communicate.  We are all available all the time no matter where we are.  Text messaging is a new form of communication that did not exist before the cell phone.  We have all experienced altered communication and behavior patterns as a result of this great technology.  What is now becoming clear is that the cell phone is dramatically changing how we view and use the land line phone.

Mediamark Research just released a study that reported that 14% of U.S. adults now live in households with one or more cell phones but no landline phone.  That is an impressive statistic.  What makes it a milestone is that it was also reported that 12.3% of adults live in a household with a landline phone, but no cell phone.  For the first time in the U.S., there are now more cell phone only households than landline only households.  That is significant as the cell phone has moved from being something that was used outside the house to being the only phone.  Conversely, land line phones can only be used in homes and in offices, they cannot encroach on the portable marketplace of cell phones.

 

Clearly this milestone is caused by two dynamics, the rapid growth of cell phones over the past 15 years and the slow decline of landline phones in the last 5 years.  These two trends will continue. One of the reasons they will continue, is that a disproportionate amount of the landline only households are older demographic households.  I don’t know any senior households that are cell phone only but I do know a lot of twenty or even thirty something households that are. 

In addition to households, businesses are increasingly moving to the cell phone being the primary number.  Most of us still have landlines for our business, but they are increasingly being listed second on business cards and rarely left on voicemail messages.  They are beginning to feel almost as outdated as fax numbers in this age of email and electronic attachments.

The larger context is the move toward wireless for all communications and electronic devices.  Cell phones, PDAs, laptops, wireless networks all make us less in need of being connected with wires and cords for communication and increasingly entertainment.  Please take a step back and reflect on the fact that the wireless state of affairs we now take for granted only existed in science fiction and in the vision of futurists [oh yes, and Dick Tracy] just 30 years ago.  The always available, always connected, always portable, ever smaller and ever more powerful wireless world that is our Present was only in the Future a couple of decades ago.  See how easy we can adapt to the Future when it suits us?

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