We are now in the transition from the Information Age to the Shift Age.  In recent columns I have positioned the recent financial melt down and global economic collapse as the beginning of a painful transitional restructuring between ages.  Just as the 1970s with all its stagflation and unprecedented turmoil was the transitional period between the Industrial Age and the Information Age, so is this time a transitional period between the Information Age and the Shift Age.

The election of Barack Obama, predicted by this observer over a year ago, is the political manifestation of this transition to the Shift Age.  In just one week, there has been a palpable shift in America.  On several deeply significant levels there is the beginning of a sense of something new taking root across the country.  The immediate point, made universally by all observers, and most poignantly represented by the tears streaming down the face of Jesse Jackson- who witnessed Dr. King’s death – in Grant Park on election night, was that a black man has just been elected President. [As someone who attended Dr. King's funeral, and actually marched part of the way to the cemetery with Bobby Kennedy and for whom Dr. King was a great hero, I too wept at this triumph begun more than 40 years ago in the South] Maybe, just maybe America, after more than two centuries of racial trauma is beginning to move on as we move into this new century and this new Age.  That in …

Barack Obama is now the President Elect of the United States.  For all the reasons that have been mentioned across all the TV channels and in all the newspapers around the world, that is an incredible statement.

I am thrilled by this historic and transformational event.  It is nothing less than that.  I have much to say about this event and will do so in subsequent columns.  There are shifts in consciousness, politics and perception that have already happened in the U.S. and around the world..  There are many more that will take place due to Obama’s victory on November 4, 2008.  I will write about them in subsequent columns.

As a futurist, as I have often written here, there are two experiences I regularly have. The first is that people often ask me about predictions or forecasts I have made that have come true, and that is fair to ask.  The second experience is often a type of déjà vu experience, when something I have forecast actually happens.  It feels as though I am reliving it.  This historic victory by Barack Obama provides me with an answer to the question and the experience of reliving a prediction.

In the Fall of 2007 I started predicting in speeches and conversations that Barack Obama would be the next President of the United States.  On January 1, 2008, in this column I finally put that in writing in this column, before the Iowa caucuses.   Then, on July 24, 2008 I wrote:

“On election night the headlines …

Recently, people have been asking me a lot of questions about the fluctuating price of oil

“What is the price of oil going to be?”  “Was the recent price spike of $147 a barrel an all-time high that we won’t see again?”  And “Will the global economic slowdown drive the price of oil back down below $100?”

These are just some of the questions I have been asked in recent weeks.  The reason of course, as long time regular readers of this blog know, is that I have been consistently accurate in my predictions about the price of oil.   In 2006 I predicted $125 barrel oil in 2008 and $137 in 2009.  In the past year I predicted that oil would have a near term trading range of $95 – 135 per barrel but that while there would be little downward pressure below $95, there are many scenarios that would provide upward pressure above $135.  All of this price predictions flow from my view that we have entered the time …

There have been many cultural changes so far in 2008.  Some of these changes are in response to the rapid increase in the price of oil and other commodities.  Some of these changes have been due to technological innovations.  In both cases new behavior patterns are being established that will, to some degree become permanent and will create new dynamics in certain industries.  Today we take a look at some of the predictions made here last January.

Shopping

The predicted shopping trends predicted were written with a long term view.  What is interesting is that the high price of gasoline has accelerated the speed of implementation of some of the forecasts.  On shopping, this column forecast:

“Shopping behavior will noticeably change……purchases will go down per capita. This will due to belt tightening but also due to the effect of the explosive growth that on-line sales will now have on off-line sales.”

This forecast was based both upon the long term up trend of on-line shopping but also upon the short term pessimism felt about the economy.  When people feel uncertain about their economic future they cut back on major expenses.  This explains the significant decline in auto sales this year and the bankruptcies of several retail chains.  What has been interesting is the reality that much of the growth in on-line sales at the expense of off-line sales is due to $4. a gallon gasoline.  When one can order on-line and have the merchandise delivered with low cost or free shipping, it is cheaper …

The economy has clearly become the primary subject today in America.  It has become so not only because of all the issues discussed in the prior column, but also because it has also become the number one issue for voters in this significant election year.

In the “Forecast for 2008″ column on January 9^th of this year I wrote:

“The U.S. Economy will not go into a recession as it has been traditionally defined.  There will be a bumpy ride, particularly in the first six months of the year. The traditional conversation will be an either/or discussion:  will there be a recession or not.  While there will most certainly be economic indicators that will point to recession, there will be others that do not.  The problem is not whether there is or is not a recession but rather the symptoms of a reorganization that is going on due to the flow to a global economy.  The view of the economic landscape is still too often looked at through traditional, increasingly less valid historical national measurements that seem to no longer apply. There will be pockets of recession, such as in the state of Michigan, but the economic bumps in the road in 2008 will not fit into traditional national recessionary measurements”

There are a couple of points to be made here.  First I was clearly underestimating the severity of the economic upheavals and equally importantly the negative mindset that would descend, courtesy of the media, upon the general sense of danger and risk.  …