We have all lived through a lifetime of technology changing the media and content landscape.  Satellites allowed cable television and later satellite television to erode and then eviscerate the traditional broadcast network business model.  Then the analog to digital transition eliminated the physicality of the product in the music industry.  Then the universal, immediate and free availability of news and information on the Internet has pushed news magazines and newspapers to the edge of the abyss.

It is now cable television’s turn to face the disintermediating power of the Internet and technology.  This is a trend I have forecast for the past two years.

Cable television has long had a strangle hold on the American household as it has been the “last 30 feet” of connectivity into the home.  Owning this connection has allowed cable television MSOs and operators to control a great deal of the media access to the home and, in many cases such as customer service and pricing, act as a monopoly.  First was the connectivity to the world of cable television.  This was followed by …

The current media and advertising recession will be more severe and more transformative than any one of the last 80 years.  This will be a time when it won’t be just about how far down ad spending goes, but also about what media entities and even business sectors will survive.

Historically, advertising recessions have been 1-2 years in length and have been about a contraction in ad spending on measured media.  Everyone hunkered down, altered pricing strategies, leaned on relationships and waited until the inevitable spending upsurge occurred.  The advertising recession of 2008 – 2010 will be different. This time, entire structures on both the buy and sell side will collapse.  The institutions that were developed and rigidified in the 20^th century are clearly not mirroring the dynamic changes of the media marketplace in this new century.  The advertising agency constructed in the second half of the last century no longer reflects the media reality of today.  The same can be said of the hierarchical distribution channel specific media sales organizations.  There are agencies and media properties that exist today …

In my last column I wrote that humanity is in transition from one Age to another and that the global financial collapse is a painful part of that transition.  This occurs during any major historical transition period.  In addition I wrote:

“There are four words that keep coming back to me as I view the landscape of what lies ahead in 2009 and beyond.  They are contraction, cleansing, reorganization and transformation.  It is these four words to keep in mind as you read the forecasts here and look around you”

I repeat that because most of the economic predictions below are about contraction and cleansing.  However I am not a pessimist as I believe that we are in a process of reorganization that can lead to transformation.  Please keep that in mind as you read on.

The U.S. economy has been in a recession for close to a year, with the fourth quarter being one of the worst quarters on record.  During this fourth quarter the global economy joined the U.S.  When all the numbers come in for this quarter they will show a major contraction probably in the range of 4-7%.  In a column in mid-October, I wrote:

“We will witness one of the worst holiday retail seasons in history on a year to year comparison basis.  People who feel that they have no control over the performance of their investments will realize that the only control they have is in the area of spending which they will …

The year 2008 will obviously go down as one of the most eventful years in recent history.  It was the year that Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.  It was the year that the Internet replaced print and TV as the driving force in a presidential election. It was the beginning of the end of 15 years of divisive cultural politics in America.

2008 was the year of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.  This collapse was the first one since the beginning of the new global economy and thus showed how humanity and all of its nation states are financially interconnected in a historically unprecedented way.  This global financial collapse is historically significant for several reasons.  First it did show that money and finance knows no national boundaries, and that nation states can no longer individually deal with major financial crises.  Second it is the start of the process to cleanse the global and particularly U.S economy from over leveraged, debt oriented mindless growth and consumption that has been a result of the mindless support of unlimited growth without thought of personal, national and global consequences.  Third it represents a clear albeit disruptive and painful part of the transition that humanity is now making from one age, the Information Age, to the new age, the Shift Age.

2008 was the year when people around the world, and most strikingly Americans, make a sudden and profound switch from consumption, debt and spending to, thrift, saving and shedding …

This is not a column about Cole Porter, the great Broadway composer who wrote the wonderful song “Night and Day”.  This column is about climate change and the urgent need for humanity to dramatically alter its’ energy equation.

At a recent global climate change summit in Poland, John Kerry, the ranking U.S. representative told the world community that the difference  on the issue of climate change between the incoming Obama administration and the soon to be history Bush administration will be like “night and day”.  He emphasized the commitment that Obama will have for facing global warming, creating alternative and renewable energy businesses and working closing with nations of the world in this area.  He compared that to the horrendous, head in the sand, petroleum loyal and anti science Bush administration and promised the world that America is ready to again join the rest of the world in facing these key issues.

There is no doubt that Kerry’s words will be proven to be true.  It is hard to imagine a less committed administration in the area of alternative energy, and all the complexities of the climate change issue than the Bush administration.  History will not be kind to the Bush administration in the area of energy and climate change.  In the next 15 years the global transportation, construction, production and land use market sectors will undergo incredible transformation.  There is more change in front of us for the next 15-20 years in these areas than in the last 50 years.

Historians in …