Beijing 2008: The Not Quite Ready for Primetime Olympics
March 27th, 2008
[Note to readers: this column was written a number of weeks ago, but was in holding as I wrote columns about some more immediate travel related subjects. With the turmoil in Tibet this past week, it is clearly a topic in the news. I have updated the prior column to include the recent upheavals.]
When countries or cities submit bids for hosting the Olympics it is usually done with a great sense of pride and boosterism. The governments and economic vested interests all look to hosting the Olympics as a way to showcase their “world class city”. In the case of the upcoming Olympics in Beijing, it is clearly the goal of the Chinese government to make clear to the world that the formerly communist country is now a major player on the world stage. The world has recognized and accepted the growing economic might of the country. The Chinese government wants to make a further impression on the world that they are culturally and architecturally a world class nation.
I have written here about what has occurred in China over the last 20 years. Basically they have collapsed the 200 year timeline of the U.S. to move from an agricultural economy to an information economy to a period one tenth in length. This has never been done on such a magnitude, and as a result there have been many problems, as written here. I think that this will be the reason that the 2008 Beijing Olympics may turn out …
Optimism About the Future
January 29th, 2008
There is a lot of pessimism in the air. As we come to the end of the first month of 2008 it seems that many are in a negative, hunker down state of mind. The stock markets are being fueled by fear. The commentators are speaking as though a major recession has begun. Casualties continue at too high a level in foreign combat, and of course it is cold and dark outside for much of the country. All this in a country that seems to have optimism in its national fiber.
The Pew Research Center just published a study that basically states that people are more pessimistic than usual coming into 2008. The Pew Center has consistently polled Americans in December about whether they think the following year will be better or worse that the year just ending. The numbers for December 2007 were that 50% of the people thought 2008 would be better, and 34% thought it will be worse. This compares to 57% and 28% in December 2006. In December 1998 the numbers were 59% and 25%. Finally, in the middle of the Internet bubble, 66% thought that 2000 would better than 1999 while only 19% thought it would be worse (in spite of the looming Y2K fear that was rampant that month).
Fear seems to spread virally …
Forecast for 2008
January 9th, 2008
This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008. The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year. In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end.
We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age. The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age. This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.
General Trends and Dynamics
1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering its’ global stage of evolution. Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary. The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic. This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on. It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right. Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..
2. The Flow to Individual …
2007/2008
January 1st, 2008
Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time. May 2008 be a happy year for everyone. I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard. I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks. Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008.
As I have stated here several times, a fundamental aspect of being a futurist is to look for patterns to discern the dynamics that will shape our collective future. Events, inventions, social, cultural and economic developments, trailblazing efforts by individuals and small groups, when looked at collectively can reveal underlying patterns and trends, both macro and micro. Here are some notable developments that point into our future, some of which will be looked at in greater detail in future columns.
Writers’ Strike
The writers’ strike in the entertainment business is now two months old. Its’ length, the animosity it has engendered and the immediate consequences of it are significant. It has within it the seeds of structural and permanent change in the entertainment business. The annual …









