Last November, I wrote a column here about the future of cable television.  In that column from last November I forecast:

“Cable television subscriptions will experience noticeable percentage declines in the next three to five years.”

Last week it was announced that for the first time in history paid television subscriptions dropped 216,000 with cable taking the greatest hit.

The conventional wisdom of course is that this is due to the bad economic conditions of today.  Of course that is a factor, but the times have been bad for the past two years.  The new dynamic is what I touched upon in last year’s column; that the video viewing marketplace is fundamentally changing, that disintermediation is entering the living room with televisions with internet connectivity and that people have become increasingly comfortable with alternative screens.  In addition, people have come to accept paying for what they watch.  The cable television model is based upon having people pay for all the channels they don’t watch.  Why would people who willingly pay for what they watch any longer except paying for channels they don’t watch?

Of course, a decline of 216,000 subscribers is nowhere near a “noticeable percentage decline”, but I believe that this first ever downturn will be looked back upon as the early indicator of the trend I forecast last year.  As for the rest of that forecast from last years’ column:

“This decline will only be slowed if they [cable operators] accept unbundling and price per channel. This will cause a variety …

As a futurist, it is imperative to be a student of history.  The macro trends, rhythms, and forces of the past can be of great assistance when trying to see ahead clearly.  In the case of the Massachusetts Senate Election I found myself understanding it within the context of American history.  So, Thomas Jefferson a little bit later in the column

What do we know at the blocking and tackling level in regards to the Brown victory?

First, the political “pundits” – and that word is always best in quotes – are back.  What did they have to say about Tiger Woods except to speak of a fallen idol?  What could they say about Haiti except to express what an unspeakably horrible tragedy it is?  Ah, but now there is blood in the water!  Political drama of the highest order!  It is so predictable what is going to be said on Fox News, on MSNBC and even CNN in the days, weeks and unfortunately months ahead.  Raised voices!  Pompous posturing and prognostications about the status of health care, the Democratic majority and the Obama Presidency.  How will the Republicans relate to the Tea Party folks?

It is clear that Brown ran a perfect pitch campaign.  Timing, image, message and package were all right on target.  Coakley ran perhaps the most lackluster campaign in recent memory.  What killed her, and is the point of this column is that her campaign, her demeanor reeked of entitlement.  This was a Democratic seat in a Democratic state …

In the last column we looked at the general dynamics underlying the reality and need to create an automotive industry in the U.S for the 21^st century. We now take a look at what this industry might look like. An analysis of trends, developing technologies and the role that the federal government can and should play, makes it is clear that this industry will be substantially different than that of the 20^th century.

At the beginning of the 20^th century there were dozens of car companies.  The story of the last century is one of consolidation so that by the 1990s there were only the Big Three and a few foreign companies producing vehicles in the U.S.  These companies from the last century will continue as the scale part of the business for the next 5-10 years.  They will be joined by smaller, more nimble companies that will bring innovation to the marketplace.  Tesla and Aptera, mentioned in the last column are just two examples.  There is a real possibility that there will be dozens of companies by 2015.  The new companies will not provide scale, at least initially, but they will lead the market with innovation.  Some companies may produce hundreds of vehicles, others thousands, others tens of thousands.  These companies will successfully compete with the big companies on the playing field of innovation.

Clearly the cars produced in the next 10-15 years will be generally smaller, much more fuel efficient and will use less and less gasoline.  The first stage …

We have all lived through a lifetime of technology changing the media and content landscape.  Satellites allowed cable television and later satellite television to erode and then eviscerate the traditional broadcast network business model.  Then the analog to digital transition eliminated the physicality of the product in the music industry.  Then the universal, immediate and free availability of news and information on the Internet has pushed news magazines and newspapers to the edge of the abyss.

It is now cable television’s turn to face the disintermediating power of the Internet and technology.  This is a trend I have forecast for the past two years.

Cable television has long had a strangle hold on the American household as it has been the “last 30 feet” of connectivity into the home.  Owning this connection has allowed cable television MSOs and operators to control a great deal of the media access to the home and, in many cases such as customer service and pricing, act as a monopoly.  First was the connectivity to the world of cable television.  This was followed by …

The current media and advertising recession will be more severe and more transformative than any one of the last 80 years.  This will be a time when it won’t be just about how far down ad spending goes, but also about what media entities and even business sectors will survive.

Historically, advertising recessions have been 1-2 years in length and have been about a contraction in ad spending on measured media.  Everyone hunkered down, altered pricing strategies, leaned on relationships and waited until the inevitable spending upsurge occurred.  The advertising recession of 2008 – 2010 will be different. This time, entire structures on both the buy and sell side will collapse.  The institutions that were developed and rigidified in the 20^th century are clearly not mirroring the dynamic changes of the media marketplace in this new century.  The advertising agency constructed in the second half of the last century no longer reflects the media reality of today.  The same can be said of the hierarchical distribution channel specific media sales organizations.  There are agencies and media properties that exist today …