latest posts

Forecasts – Part Three

[This column was first published in the Shift Age Newsletter #27 ]

This is the third and final of columns that look at the forecasts I have made relative to things that might happen through 2013.  As pointed out in the first two columns, the real purpose is to analyze why forecasts were correct and if not why not and what this might mean looking forward.

As stated in the first column:

“..most people, and certainly people who lead institutions and companies, are interested in what will happen six months to five years out as that is what is their primary …

Forecasts – Part Two

This is the second of three columns where I look at all the forecasts I have made about things that might happen through the end of 2013.  As I wrote in the first column here this is not an exercise in self-congratulation.  It is an opportunity to look back not just on forecast accuracy but to analyze why or why not trends developed, things happened and perhaps what that might suggest going forward.

Almost all of my forecasts about specifics are on the forecast page of my web site

Date of Forecast

September 2008

Forecast

Complete genetic mapping for individuals …

Almost three years ago, on 01-01-10 I wrote a column called “The Transformation Decade”.  On this digital date I suggested that this decade would be shaped by massive transformation.  The dictionary definition of transformation is “a change in nature, shape, form or character”.   This means that this ten-year period will be a decade when most of humanity’s institutions will do exactly that.

Since that date, in columns and speeches around the world I have found that not only was this forecast correct, but that this definition helps people to better contextually understand the ever greater amount and accelerating speed …

Revisiting Some Forecasts

[ This first appeared a week ago in my Shift Age Newsletter.  ]

In the first eight months of 2011, I made some economic forecasts relative to the global economic landscape.  As a futurist, that is part of what I do, as people always ask me about the future, particularly economics.  It is only fair to be accountable in this regard.

Here are some of the forecasts I made, with current commentary:

In January of 2011 I said that the growth rate of the US GDP would be 2% for the year. Well I got that one right.  In …