This will be the first of several columns on the state of transportation in the U.S. Regular readers of this column know that for years I have predicted the current high price of oil, the sales collapse of the truck and SUV markets and the need for electric cars. In addition it has been stated here that the future of U.S. transportation must include high speed trains, and a better integration of airplane, train and local mass transit. Finally it should start being clear to anyone paying attention [still too few of the population] that the now permanent high price — relative to prices since the mid 1980s – of gasoline will have a profound effect on behavior and our perceptions of where to live and work and how to live. Our culture, our society, our economy and the landscape of this country are about ready to undergo significant and massive change.

The recent news that SUV and pick up truck sales had plummeted compared to last year is worthy of comment. The obvious reason is the price of gasoline. As I wrote here recently, $4 a gallon gas is finally inflicting enough pain to change behavior. All the cars that showed the greatest sales growth year to year were small cars that get good gas mileage. For the first time in 17 years, a car, rather than a truck was the best selling vehicle. It is about time.

Decades ago trucks used to be …

The last 50 years of humanity’s mindless consumption of fossil fuels has helped accelerate global warming. The total lack of a cohesive energy policy and program in America has given us $4 a gallon gasoline with $5 and $6 a gallon a practical certainty. There are millions of new riders on our mass transit systems at a time when many of these systems are in crumbling decline due to decades of neglect and total lack of strategic initiatives. Solar and wind power are extremely exciting and coming on line quickly. Globally, and nationally we have backed ourselves into an energy corner.

Nuclear energy is one of the sources that now must be better utilized in the U.S and around the world. Contrary to trailing popular perception, it is a relatively safe energy source. Fewer people have died working at and around nuclear power plants in the last 20 years than have died in coal mining accidents in the last three years. France obtains 50% of its energy from nuclear. Now that we are passing through Peak Oil we have only decades left of petroleum. All energy options must be explored, made safe, and made affordable if we are to avoid the tearing apart of the social, economic and cultural fabric.

When we think of the Middle East we think of petroleum. However, the rulers in that region know that the bonanza they are currently enjoying will be coming to an end by mid century. Even countries in the Middle East are looking …

Two years ago in this blog, I wrote a futuristic column from April 20, 2009. The title of the column was “Remember When Gas Was Cheap?” At that time I predicted that the price of oil in early 2008 would reach $125 and that in April 2009 it would be $137.
In January of 2007 I was invited on the “First Business” syndicated business program to discuss the price of oil for the remainder of the year. At the time the price was $53 a barrel. I basically told the flabbergasted reporter that I thought the price of oil would most definitely cross $80 a barrel and would approach, but not reach the $100 a barrel price. The counterbalancing view was some “oil industry expert” who said the price range for the year would be $50-70 a barrel. Of course we know what happened.

Last fall I wrote a column predicting that the trading range for the price of oil would be $80-125 for the next two years. I now want to revise that forecast. When I made that prediction, the price has recently crossed $80, charting new territory. While obviously not surprised, I did let all the disbelief I had been subjected to in my predictions to give me a sense of caution. Since $80 was the new high, and I was saying that it would be the price floor for the foreseeable future I thought it would be a correct floor. I did say in that column …

The magnitude of the energy crisis we now face in the U.S. cannot be overstated. It is not just about cutting the emission of greenhouse gases, the increasing price of petroleum or the fact that we are dependent for oil on countries that only hold us in high regard as customers. It is about the fact that our entire physical landscape and a large part of our social and economic interactions are predicated on the assumption of cheap petroleum, an assumption that is no longer valid.

Petroleum will continue to rise in price as I have consistently predicted in this column. We are most likely going through peak oil and when we accept responsibility for contributing to global warming we realize that all fossil fuels and the burning of them has incredibly dire unintended consequences. In addition we are a debtor nation with a crumbling and in need of repair infrastructure. Where is this leading us?

I have long been a fan of James Howard Kunstler’s book ‘The Long Emergency’ and have recommended it to many people. [In addition his blog is one I recommend in conversation and have recommended on my links page since the inception of Evolution Shift.]  This best selling book details in a persuasive manner the coming deconstruction of American society due to the converging crises mentioned above. Having read this non-fiction book from a novelist, it was no surprise to find that Kunstler was writing a novel about €˜post long emergency’ America. It is called ‘World Made …

Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier. In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction. Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100. This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country.

Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 — 125 for the foreseeable future. The current global marketplace is such that it is hard to imagine the price dipping below $80 but there are a lot of scenarios that could ultimately drive it above $125. The actual trigger for the recent price increase is an explosion in a Texas refinery that processes 70,000 barrels a day, which is less that one half of one percent of the daily U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels a day. That is how tight the oil market is. There is little or no excess refining capacity in the world.

Demand is and will consistently outstrip supply in the oil market. Any perceived fall off in U.S. consumption due to an economic slow down will be more than offset by the increased demand from China and India and other developing countries. This will be a constant for the foreseeable future. When one …