“The chances further down the road seem to me better on the fuel-cell side than on the battery-electric side”

There are a number of readers of this blog and members of the audiences when I speak that just seem to think that hydrogen fuel cell autos are a pipe dream that has no chance of becoming a reality in the next decade.  Comments like the quote above provoke a general dismissal as not being realistic.

During the last three years, I have forecast that 2010-2015 would begin the age of the electric automobile and that 2015-2020 would begin the age of the hydrogen fuel cell automobile.  People accept the first part of that forecast but somehow can’t seem to allow themselves to believe that hydrogen fuel cell cars will ever get to scale.  There is no question that scalability is a problem for hydrogen fuel cell technologies.  There are not enough fueling stations to warrant the production of fuel cell autos and there aren’t enough fuel cell autos to warrant the construction of hydrogen fueling stations.  Joseph Heller’s classic “Catch 22″ in full display..

Here and in speeches I have suggested that now is one of those times when the federal government needs to step up and invest in critically needed infrastructure.  In the 1930’s  FDR had the government fund massive projects that created the hydro-electric industry in the U.S.  In the 1950s Eisenhower signed the Interstate Highway bill, creating the national highway system that we all rely for personal transport and the …

The year 2008 will obviously go down as one of the most eventful years in recent history.  It was the year that Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.  It was the year that the Internet replaced print and TV as the driving force in a presidential election. It was the beginning of the end of 15 years of divisive cultural politics in America.

2008 was the year of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.  This collapse was the first one since the beginning of the new global economy and thus showed how humanity and all of its nation states are financially interconnected in a historically unprecedented way.  This global financial collapse is historically significant for several reasons.  First it did show that money and finance knows no national boundaries, and that nation states can no longer individually deal with major financial crises.  Second it is the start of the process to cleanse the global and particularly U.S economy from over leveraged, debt oriented mindless growth and consumption that has been a result of the mindless support of unlimited growth without thought of personal, national and global consequences.  Third it represents a clear albeit disruptive and painful part of the transition that humanity is now making from one age, the Information Age, to the new age, the Shift Age.

2008 was the year when people around the world, and most strikingly Americans, make a sudden and profound switch from consumption, debt and spending to, thrift, saving and shedding …

Recently, people have been asking me a lot of questions about the fluctuating price of oil

“What is the price of oil going to be?”  “Was the recent price spike of $147 a barrel an all-time high that we won’t see again?”  And “Will the global economic slowdown drive the price of oil back down below $100?”

These are just some of the questions I have been asked in recent weeks.  The reason of course, as long time regular readers of this blog know, is that I have been consistently accurate in my predictions about the price of oil.   In 2006 I predicted $125 barrel oil in 2008 and $137 in 2009.  In the past year I predicted that oil would have a near term trading range of $95 – 135 per barrel but that while there would be little downward pressure below $95, there are many scenarios that would provide upward pressure above $135.  All of this price predictions flow from my view that we have entered the time …

Regular readers know that I have long predicted the current price of oil and that we are now moving through Peak Oil These subjects were included in my “Forecast for 2008″

To quote from that January 9, 2008 column:

“In 2008, gas will, for a period of time reach $4 on the national level. A year ago I predicted that oil would rise above $80. Three months ago I predicted that the price would rise to $100 and that the trading range for oil will be $80 – 125 a barrel for the next year…but there could be several situations that could drive the price above $125.”

Well sure I was right about the rapid run up in the price of oil and the price of a gallon of gas. At the time I was one of the few voices with this forecast. The interesting thing is that when I made the predictions they seemed outrageous to many people and yet they have turned out to be conservative. In a follow up column on April 27 titled “The Short and Long Term Price of Oil”, I revised my price predictions upward:

“I now think that the core trading price range of oil for the next 18 months will be $95 – 135. I seriously doubt it will ever dip below the lower price, and if it does, it will be temporary. I do however think that that there are any number of scenarios that could provoke a rapid price run up …

Two weeks ago I said that I would be writing several columns about transportation in the U.S. This is the final one of that series, at least for now. In the life of this blog I have written about the future of transportation and what it will and should look like. I am sure I will revisit the topic again as it is one of the most critical transitions this country will have to make over the next ten years.

In January, I wrote about high speed trains with the recommendation that they become a cornerstone in the new foundation of U.S transportation. That column was followed up by suggesting a vision of what transportation in the U.S. could look like in 2015. Since that time of course oil has continued its price climb, and the pain at the pump has translated into significant changes in behavior, noted here and here. It is now a fact that $4 a gallon gasoline was the pain threshold needed. As citizens of the U.S. and the world we need to act with certainty that this will be the price floor for gasoline long-term.

In the above referenced columns I wrote about a new vision for transportation in this country. In the North – South corridors of the country that are highly populated, such as the Boston – Miami corridor, the Minneapolis – Indianapolis corridor, the Denver – Houston corridor and …