In my last column I wrote that humanity is in transition from one Age to another and that the global financial collapse is a painful part of that transition.  This occurs during any major historical transition period.  In addition I wrote:

“There are four words that keep coming back to me as I view the landscape of what lies ahead in 2009 and beyond.  They are contraction, cleansing, reorganization and transformation.  It is these four words to keep in mind as you read the forecasts here and look around you”

I repeat that because most of the economic predictions below are about contraction and cleansing.  However I am not a pessimist as I believe that we are in a process of reorganization that can lead to transformation.  Please keep that in mind as you read on.

The U.S. economy has been in a recession for close to a year, with the fourth quarter being one of the worst quarters on record.  During this fourth quarter the global economy joined the U.S.  When all the numbers come in for this quarter they will show a major contraction probably in the range of 4-7%.  In a column in mid-October, I wrote:

“We will witness one of the worst holiday retail seasons in history on a year to year comparison basis.  People who feel that they have no control over the performance of their investments will realize that the only control they have is in the area of spending which they will …

This is not a column about Cole Porter, the great Broadway composer who wrote the wonderful song “Night and Day”.  This column is about climate change and the urgent need for humanity to dramatically alter its’ energy equation.

At a recent global climate change summit in Poland, John Kerry, the ranking U.S. representative told the world community that the difference  on the issue of climate change between the incoming Obama administration and the soon to be history Bush administration will be like “night and day”.  He emphasized the commitment that Obama will have for facing global warming, creating alternative and renewable energy businesses and working closing with nations of the world in this area.  He compared that to the horrendous, head in the sand, petroleum loyal and anti science Bush administration and promised the world that America is ready to again join the rest of the world in facing these key issues.

There is no doubt that Kerry’s words will be proven to be true.  It is hard to imagine a less committed administration in the area of alternative energy, and all the complexities of the climate change issue than the Bush administration.  History will not be kind to the Bush administration in the area of energy and climate change.  In the next 15 years the global transportation, construction, production and land use market sectors will undergo incredible transformation.  There is more change in front of us for the next 15-20 years in these areas than in the last 50 years.

Historians in …