The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3.  During these past two days I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year.  

A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that point.  

As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead.  I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.  It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it.  When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that.  My reaction?  Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?
The long term trend in oil and gas prices is ever upward.  I do think that the trading range for oil for the next year at least will be $80-125.  …

The dramatic increase in gasoline prices over the summer combined with the perception that oil revenues fund terrorism has created a new perception on the need for the U.S. to import oil. It is now becoming clear to a growing number of Americans that dependency on foreign oil compromises our security.

In a recent poll conducted by the Democracy Corps, a Democratic group, likely voters, were asked what they thought were the two most important national security priorities for the government over the next few years.  Coming in first, with 42% was reducing dependence on foreign oil. A distant second was combating terrorism at 26%.  Third was the war in Iraq at 25%.  Strengthening America’s military came in at 12%.  This is very interesting to say the least.  It means that the relatively clear connection between oil and terrorism, and the perception that America could at any time be brought to its knees by foreign oil producing states has become the greatest security fear of voters.

One thing that politicians pay attention to is voters.  Once again, the people are leading the politicians when it comes to a common sense view of oil and the world.  It has been clear that since 9/11, when the Bush administration told us that going shopping, instead of a patriotic conservation effort, was the correct reaction to the attack that this group of non-leaders had no stomach for an obvious, common sense energy policy.  Now that the voters say that energy independence is the number one security …

Modern man has moved through three different ages in the last 10,000 years. The Agricultural Age was from around 8,000 BC until the 1700s. The Industrial Age was from the 1700s to the last two decades of the 20th century, when the Information Age began. The great Alvin Toffler referred to these ages as the First Wave, Second Wave and Third Wave. Each wave or age had different economic characteristics. The dominant economic structure in Second Wave societies was a centralized hierarchy. The dominant structure in Third Wave societies are flat networks.

In speeches I give and in the book I am writing, I call the period from 1985-2005 “The Threshold Decades”, because it is the time that is between what was and what is and will be. In 1985, the values and institutions of the developed nations were still Second Wave or Industrial Age; by 2005 they had become Third Wave or Information Age. During this twenty year period we fully moved into the Information Age. Just think of all the things that came along or occurred during this time: cell phones, Cable TV, numerous communications satellites, the Internet, PC market saturation, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the beginning of the Global Economy and high speed broadband to name just a few significant things. Large organizations were down-sized and lost layers of management. Entrepreneurial companies sprang to life and …