Book Expo America is the large annual convention of the book publishing industry.  For the past few days, thousands of people descended on the Javits Center in New York for the annual ritualistic gathering of the tribes of this 500 year old business.  As regular readers know, this year I have attended the Consumer Electronic Show, the NATPE television convention and the Chicago Auto Show.  Once again I found myself navigating an annual convention of a business that targets the consumer [BEA is primarily for the ‘trade’ or consumer part of the book publishing industry].  I look to see what the industry trends are, and how the business is reflecting and adapting to the radical changes going on in society today. Finally, as a futurist, I look at the business through my own filter of what I see the future to be to gauge whether the business is doing what might be necessary to expand and thrive in this new age we live in. 

The book business is a mature business, which would be expected since Gutenberg initiated it more than 550 years ago.  It is certainly not a growth business.  I attended a Trends 2007 presentation which provided a detailed snapshot of the industry today.  Year to year revenue growth, current and projected out to 2011, is in the 2-3.5% range, but year to year unit sales over all is less than 0.5%.  In other words, any growth is due to increased prices.  Factoring in population growth, …

Last week it was reported that the ratings board of the motion picture industry is now going to factor in cigarette smoking as part of the overall rating of a film.  Films with excessive smoking will now certainly get a PG-13, if not an R rating.  The goal is to cut down on the influence on teen smoking behavior.  There is clear correlation between the glamorization of cigarette smoking on screen and people smoking.

While this development is certainly to be applauded from a public health point of view, it does seem to be off the mark if the goal is to lessen unhealthy behavior in young Americans. Excessive drinking, use of guns, corporate theft and deceit, physical and sexual violence are also bad for this country’s health and they are also widely depicted on the big screen.  It is absurd to think that a scene depicting gun violence or a robbery might get a less restrictive rating if the actors are not smoking. There is no need for me to dwell on this aspect of the topic, as Marshall Herskovitz, the accomplished Hollywood producer, has written a great piece on this development.

This news story did get me to thinking about cigarette smoking, but from a more historical point of view. It could be argued that, in the United States, cigarette smoking is a habit largely contained in a single century.  At the beginning of the 20th century, cigarette smoking was not widespread.  In the middle of the century it …

It is often valuable to have a grasp of history when looking to the future.  Too often those that don’t have a historical perspective think that everything is new when in many cases what is new is a refurbished version of a past success model. 

The other day Clear Channel Communications announced that a station it owns in Dallas, KZPS, was going to stop airing 30 and 60 second commercials.  Instead of running lots of commercials, the station will have advertisers sponsor an hour of programming.  During each hour the DJ will spend about two minutes speaking about the sponsor or the sponsors products in a personal, conversational way.  This compares to the usual commercial load on radio stations of 12 to 16 minutes of 30 and 60 second spots.  In addition, sponsors will have category exclusivity.  The station has sold four sponsors, Southwest Airlines, AT&T, Coors and Guitar Center, and will therefore not have any other airlines, phone companies, breweries or music retailers on their air.
The impetus for this major change is the radical changes in the media landscape that have occurred in the past few years.  Radio has long been an out of home medium, listened to predominately in cars – that’s why radio stations call their version of prime time, drive time.  Radio was serving a captive audience of people stuck in traffic.  Now with the advent of commercial free satellite radio, CDs and iPods, drivers have commercial free choice.  Whenever I drive …

In my post on predictions for 2007, I made a specific prediction that the current Internet 2.0 boom would continue and that eyeballs, dollars and influence would migrate from old media to the Internet.  Now this isn’t crystal ball stuff.  Media and advertising professionals live this reality every day.  Just look at your own life.  How much more time do you spend on-line that you did 10, 5 or even 2 years ago?  The debate is around how fast and how much, not if or when.

I read a news item the other day that was, for me, a historically and hugely symbolic underscoring of this flow of power to the Internet.  The world’s oldest newspaper announced that it was ceasing publication on paper and would be only available on-line.

The Swedish newspaper PoIT – which stands for Post och Inrikes Tidningar – is the world’s oldest newspaper still in publication.  It has been continuously published since 1645.  1645!  That is just 90 years after Gutenberg printed his first bible.  The paper was founded by the Swedish Queen Christina and her chancellor during the Thirty Years War.

The Editor, and only employee of PoIT,  Roland Haegglund,   was quoted as saying “The change in format is, of course a major departure for some, possibly a little sad, but is also a natural step”.  Evidently PoIT, had long ago ceased to be a real newspaper, and had become an announcement vehicle for financial. legal and corporate institutions.  When it published its final print version …