Amazon’s introduction of the Kindle electronic book reader feels momentous. It is the first time that the long anticipated, much debated future of the ‘ebook’ feels ready to begin in a meaningful way.

During the past ten years there has been great debate about the ebook.  Generally speaking there have been three points of view on the subject.  The first one comes from the true believers that the ebook is inevitable and that it would ultimately gain a noticeable and then sizable market share of publishing.  The second viewpoint is that while there would be a market for the ebook it would never really capture more than a marginal market share.  The third viewpoint was that the physical experience of reading an actual book is such an integral part of the reading experience that the ebook would never really catch on.  I am one of those that hold the first point of view.

In a column here last summer I wrote:

“e-books will ultimately gain significant market share.  This will occur when there is an ‘iPod moment’; when a device comes out that is low priced, wonderful to use and perceived to be cool or hip.  Once this occurs there will be a rapid increase in the percentage of books sold digitally, probably leveling off around 40 — 50% by 2025. Impulsive buys, such as at airport book stores will become “purchase, plug-in and download’. While those of us who have grown up with the wonderful tactile experience of ‘curling up with …

The electronic media is a wonderful invention.  The forty year old vision of Marshall McLuhan of a global village where the electronic media connects us all and becomes an extension of our brains is now truly a reality. The power to educate, connect and inspire are all inherently available on radio, television and the internet.  That is why the television news coverage of this past Thanksgiving week was so incredibly disappointing.

There seemed to be only three news stories.  Whether I watched the network new programs, the cable news networks or the local news the stories were the same.

News story number one:  Airline travel over the Thanksgiving holiday. The anchor throws to one or more reporters live at the check in areas of major airports who breathlessly talks about how busy it might be, what the weather might do to flight schedules and what delays to expect. All of this reported within the context of the recent unfriendly skies of commercial aviation. This of course is accompanied by interviews with a few travelers and what they expected or had experienced.  It seemed like the only people traveling were mothers with young children.  Every single story had a mom with a young child in arms talking about going to grandma’s house.

News story number two:  The unusually high price of gas for November.  Segueing with, ‘for those that aren’t flying there is the problem of record gasoline prices’.  This usually is followed by an interview with a motorist at a gas pump or …

Google has now made the long awaited announcement that it would be entering the wireless arena.  It was not a product, or “Google Phone” roll-out, but rather the announcement of OHA, or the Open Handset Alliance.  OHA(my choice to come up with an acronym as the full name sounds a bit too bureaucratic and almost Orwellian for me to type it a lot) is the next step in the globalization of connectivity and something I have anticipated and expected for a couple of years.

On this blog, and at conferences I point to the fact that it is the cell phone that is the true global technology. I have written about the explosive growth and sheer numbers of devices, of the technological innovation and how the cell phone has found a seat at the table of major media.  OHA takes the logical next step which is to break up the walled gardens of carriers and software suppliers.  Incompatibility is at odds with a world of  ever increasing connectedness.  Universality is one of the touch stones of our wireless future.  Another is the ongoing commoditization of the entire business pushing costs ever lower for the consumer.  OHA will facilitate both of these inevitable trends.

Google of course is doing this for business reasons.  They hope to dominate the mobile advertising marketplace the way they currently dominate the on-line one.  In addition, they seem to have a strong desire to attack the business constructs of Microsoft and other companies that sell …

Book Expo America is the large annual convention of the book publishing industry.  For the past few days, thousands of people descended on the Javits Center in New York for the annual ritualistic gathering of the tribes of this 500 year old business.  As regular readers know, this year I have attended the Consumer Electronic Show, the NATPE television convention and the Chicago Auto Show.  Once again I found myself navigating an annual convention of a business that targets the consumer [BEA is primarily for the ‘trade’ or consumer part of the book publishing industry].  I look to see what the industry trends are, and how the business is reflecting and adapting to the radical changes going on in society today. Finally, as a futurist, I look at the business through my own filter of what I see the future to be to gauge whether the business is doing what might be necessary to expand and thrive in this new age we live in. 

The book business is a mature business, which would be expected since Gutenberg initiated it more than 550 years ago.  It is certainly not a growth business.  I attended a Trends 2007 presentation which provided a detailed snapshot of the industry today.  Year to year revenue growth, current and projected out to 2011, is in the 2-3.5% range, but year to year unit sales over all is less than 0.5%.  In other words, any growth is due to increased prices.  Factoring in population growth, …

Last week it was reported that the ratings board of the motion picture industry is now going to factor in cigarette smoking as part of the overall rating of a film.  Films with excessive smoking will now certainly get a PG-13, if not an R rating.  The goal is to cut down on the influence on teen smoking behavior.  There is clear correlation between the glamorization of cigarette smoking on screen and people smoking.

While this development is certainly to be applauded from a public health point of view, it does seem to be off the mark if the goal is to lessen unhealthy behavior in young Americans. Excessive drinking, use of guns, corporate theft and deceit, physical and sexual violence are also bad for this country’s health and they are also widely depicted on the big screen.  It is absurd to think that a scene depicting gun violence or a robbery might get a less restrictive rating if the actors are not smoking. There is no need for me to dwell on this aspect of the topic, as Marshall Herskovitz, the accomplished Hollywood producer, has written a great piece on this development.

This news story did get me to thinking about cigarette smoking, but from a more historical point of view. It could be argued that, in the United States, cigarette smoking is a habit largely contained in a single century.  At the beginning of the 20th century, cigarette smoking was not widespread.  In the middle of the century it …