To quote from one of the four prior posts with this title:

“While in many areas it might be difficult to see into the future, in the area of technology the future can be readily seen.  The speed of technological invention and innovation moves so quickly that we have barely assimilated a recent breakthrough when another shows up to knock us back on our heels again.  While these innovations do provide a glimpse of our future, they can be disorienting in that they show us that the Present that we are struggling to accept and assimilate will soon be outdated.”

Cloud computing is the name given to the rapidly growing movement of software and storage onto the web. Rather than having all of ones’ software, documents, pictures and email files stashed on the hard drive of a desk top or notebook computer, it will soon be possible to have all of ones digital life reside on a secure place on the web.  While on-line back-up has been around for a while, the breakthrough for cloud computing is that the software one uses will be on the web, not in the computer.  This is the high level battleground between the decades’ old PC model of Microsoft and the more recent Net-centric vision of Google.

Perhaps Bill Gate’s most famous quote is his founding vision for Microsoft:  “A PC on every desktop”.  The manifestation of that vision is the world domination of the Microsoft Empire.  Whether one likes Microsoft or not, this manifested vision helped …

The New York Stock Exchange was founded in 1817.  This was some 50 years after the beginning of the Industrial Age.  The need for the NYSE was, in part, a result of the transition of the U.S. economy from one that was completely agricultural to one that was rapidly becoming industrial.  During the course of the 1800s the NYSE became increasingly important to the economy as a financial market that could provide both financial liquidity to listed companies and as a way to establish valuation and worth of all companies traded. 

In the 20th century the NYSE was joined by many other exchanges such as the AMEX and the NASDAQ.  All these exchanges served to create liquidity, valuation and a way that investors could own and trade in shares of companies.  These markets therefore became central to the miracle that was the U.S. economy of the past 100 years.

Some 30 years ago however, the Industrial Age started to give way to the Information Age and something interesting began to happen.  The value of the hard assets as a percentage of total corporate value started to decline.  As I have written here, in 1975 16.8% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 was from intangible assets.  By 1995, that number had grown to 68.4%, and in 2005 it was up to 79.7%, where I imagine it will level off in the years ahead.  Another way of stating this is that intellectual property, or intellectual capital has become the dominant value …

Fifteen years ago, when Americans went shopping and came across the  phrase “Made in China” it usually was on small, inexpensive trinkets, toys and souvenirs.  Ten years ago we started to see these words on apparel.  Five years ago we started to see these words seemingly everywhere.  During the last five months, if we saw these words it might have meant the death of our pets, food borne illness or perhaps poisoning. [My favorite editorial cartoon on this subject showed two people holding the same product.  One was saying “A great dessert topping!”  The other saying “Cleans even the toughest stains”].

The Chinese government of course has taken this issue very seriously as the avalanche of billions of dollars of exports is being put at risk.  Doing what they have historically done, they executed the former government official who had been the head of the State Food and Drug Administration for taking bribes and looking the other way on issues of safety and product production. In the last week they have also closed down the companies that have shipped poisonous products overseas. We certainly need to hold the Chinese accountable for any and all defective and life threatening products that make it to the U.S.  The historical levels of government oversight in the production of goods, be it labor conditions or product quality is much lower in China, and many other developing countries for that matter, than in the U.S.

The larger context through which this issue must be viewed is that …

People started using computers outside the corporate research lab in the 1950s.  The early computers created in garages were brought to market in the mid 1970s.  The PC came out in 1981.  The 1990s saw the early explosive growth of the laptop and the current decade is when the PDA and other wireless devices took off.  This 50 year history is punctuated by various breakthroughs in the computer human interface.  Each one of these breakthroughs changed usage, behavior and ultimately society.

Mainframe computing of the 1950s looked like a technological religion.  Well lit, air conditioned rooms housed large computers that were run by systems analysts and operated by trained computer operators.  Access was highly restricted.  It felt like one was entering the church of computer.  The output was printed on reams of computer paper (remember?) that was largely illegible to the average person.  Interpretation was provided by professionals. 

When the Apple, and later the PC came out humans could interact directly with small computers that sat on desktops with keyboards and screens.  The screens were largely monochromatic and filled with alphanumeric language that needed some training to understand.  Later the mouse was added which allowed windows, screens and scrolling.  Color and high resolution screens soon followed.  It was no longer necessary to have training to run a computer.  This increasing ease of use, as much as small size, portability and lowered cost is what drove the incredible explosion in computer sales.  When using a computer became easy and fun, sales took off.  …