In January, I wrote about high speed trains with the recommendation that they become a cornerstone in the new foundation of U.S transportation. That column was followed up by suggesting a vision of what transportation in the U.S. could look like in 2015. Since that time of course oil has continued its price climb, and the pain at the pump has translated into significant changes in behavior, noted here and here. It is now a fact that $4 a gallon gasoline was the pain threshold needed. As citizens of the U.S. and the world we need to act with certainty that this will be the price floor for gasoline long-term.

In the above referenced columns I wrote about a new vision for transportation in this country. In the North – South corridors of the country that are highly populated, such as the Boston – Miami corridor, the Minneapolis – Indianapolis corridor, the Denver – Houston corridor and ...]]> Two weeks ago I said that I would be writing several columns about transportation in the U.S. This is the final one of that series, at least for now. In the life of this blog I have written about the future of transportation and what it will and should look like. I am sure I will revisit the topic again as it is one of the most critical transitions this country will have to make over the next ten years.

In January, I wrote about high speed trains with the recommendation that they become a cornerstone in the new foundation of U.S transportation. That column was followed up by suggesting a vision of what transportation in the U.S. could look like in 2015. Since that time of course oil has continued its price climb, and the pain at the pump has translated into significant changes in behavior, noted here and here. It is now a fact that $4 a gallon gasoline was the pain threshold needed. As citizens of the U.S. and the world we need to act with certainty that this will be the price floor for gasoline long-term.

In the above referenced columns I wrote about a new vision for transportation in this country. In the North – South corridors of the country that are highly populated, such as the Boston – Miami corridor, the Minneapolis – Indianapolis corridor, the Denver – Houston corridor and the Seattle – San Diego corridor there should be frequent high speed train service. With air travel being what it is these days, any journey less than 300 miles is more comfortable, affordable and less environmentally damaging on a high speed train that on a plane. Have these high speed trains that run North and South connect at airports for the longer East-West air routes. Also have these high speed train routes connect to networks of regional and local transport systems, running on electricity, solar and other forms of alternative energy.

It is wireless technology that will allow this to happen with ease. Along all these high speed train routes and regional and local transport systems there is cellular and WiFi connectivity. This means that one can travel on trains and be productive. It is no longer time lost. On the Acela there are quiet cars for those that want that and other cars for those that want to talk or be on the phone. I have had several very productive NY – Washington DC train trips working digitally while be transported in the analog world.

It will become essential for America to adapt to more work being done at home. Telecommuting will increase. Companies that can will restructure work weeks so that employees have days to interact with each other physically and days when they interact electronically. The ever increasing sophistication of on-line video interactivity will also start to cut down on business travel as the costs and time saved will be well worth it as the cost of flying continues to rise.

Airplane travel will no longer be inexpensive and there will be less of it. There is no alternative because of the price of oil. This means that while there might be less congestion in the skies, there will be many smaller cities that will have dramatically lessened airline service or none at all. The negative economic consequences may well be severe. This points to high speed rail and regional transportation systems that connect to it.

The personal transportation part of this of course is the automobile. The Big Three, as written about in the prior two columns must rapidly adapt from big to small vehicles and from gasoline powered to electric and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles. What is wonderful to see are the start-up companies that are emerging with viable high mileage vehicles that will come to market soon. The Aptera is a space age looking electric gasoline hybrid. The Aptera prototype, the Mk-0 got 230 miles per gallon at a constant 55 miles per hour. In addition, it has tested at a 40-60 mile range on a single battery charge. That is the average driving per day for the great majority of Americans. They are now taking orders at an estimated price of $30,000. Tesla Motors has received a lot of publicity for its’ roadster, which can go from 0-60 mph in 3.9 seconds, is completely electric, has a 220 mile range per charge and is now in production. It is a high performance two-seater at a high $100,000 price. These cars represent the current low and high ends of the market.

What I find most interesting about this new entrepreneurial industry of low cost electric and electric hybrid vehicles is that they show that 100 MPG is achievable. This has been the vision that drives such entrepreneurs, to get triple digit miles per gallon. As gasoline continues to climb in price 100+ MPG will become a new standard of measurement in America. These entrepreneurial companies are showing the way. While Detroit was resisting legislation raising fleet averages from 25 to 35 MPG, these new companies were providing true perspective on what is possible. The Big Three will hopefully get on track and will start to bring scale to the marketplace starting in 2010. If they don’t, some other auto companies will step in, pure and simple.

Of course a key ingredient in this new transportation vision is the need to convert the landscape from one of filling stations to one of filling/charging stations. Roadside restaurants and shopping centers will offer fast charge-ups while one eats or shops. Imagine life in America where the only time you use gasoline is when you fly or you go on long car trips and will need to use a few gallons of gas between battery charges. In ten years it will be truly possible that the average American will spend less on gasoline in a year than she now spends in a month or a week, even if the price of gas doubles or triples. Imagine that!

The recent news that SUV and pick up truck sales had plummeted compared to last year is worthy of comment. The obvious reason is the price of gasoline. As I wrote here recently, $4 a gallon gas is finally inflicting enough pain to change behavior. All the cars that showed the greatest sales growth year to year were small cars that get good gas mileage. For the first time in 17 years, a car, rather than a truck was the best selling vehicle. It is about time.

Decades ago trucks used to be ...]]> This will be the first of several columns on the state of transportation in the U.S. Regular readers of this column know that for years I have predicted the current high price of oil, the sales collapse of the truck and SUV markets and the need for electric cars. In addition it has been stated here that the future of U.S. transportation must include high speed trains, and a better integration of airplane, train and local mass transit. Finally it should start being clear to anyone paying attention [still too few of the population] that the now permanent high price — relative to prices since the mid 1980s – of gasoline will have a profound effect on behavior and our perceptions of where to live and work and how to live. Our culture, our society, our economy and the landscape of this country are about ready to undergo significant and massive change.

The recent news that SUV and pick up truck sales had plummeted compared to last year is worthy of comment. The obvious reason is the price of gasoline. As I wrote here recently, $4 a gallon gas is finally inflicting enough pain to change behavior. All the cars that showed the greatest sales growth year to year were small cars that get good gas mileage. For the first time in 17 years, a car, rather than a truck was the best selling vehicle. It is about time.

Decades ago trucks used to be vehicles that were used for business or professional reasons. Then in the 1980s they crossed over to the consumer private vehicle market. I never fully understood why a man living in a city would drive to and from work and around town in a huge pickup truck. It was one of the more absurd manifestations of big is better that is rampant in America. Huge trucks, jacked up on big tires must be compensating for something. In the 1960s if a man wanted to be a manly cowboy he smoked Marlboros. In the 1990s he drove a truck or a big SUV.

It is funny how quickly these big pickup trucks and big SUVs now look dated and seem so out of place. The “small is the new big” state of mind from what used to be called the environmental movement has taken root in the automotive market. Hollywood stars and power brokers used to drive around in Hummers and other big SUVs, now they drive hybrids and get on waiting lists for electric and hydrogen cars. Suburban mommies who still drive massive SUVs now speak apologetically about driving them, when just a few years ago they thought of them as status symbols. Anyone who has tried to trade in a big vehicle for a smaller, more gas efficient car in the last two months has found that the trade in value has plummeted, in some cases close to zero as dealers know they won’t be able to sell them.

I have been certain for 3-4 years that this fundamental change in the vehicle market would occur. Peak oil and the explosive growth of developing economies assured that oil would reach current price levels and that these price levels would cause a radical shift in vehicle purchasing behavior. Psychologists and sociologists for decades have known that sometimes behavior will not change unless pain, in some cases severe pain was experienced. This economic pain at the pump is changing behavior at last. It is this pain that is and will forever change the vehicles that Americans drive. The world has changed and Americans are actually accepting as fact that gasoline will never again be cheap.

The personal self indulgence that was represented by driving wasteful vehicles and the total lack of an energy policy on the part of the U.S government for the last eight years, is now causing a lot of pain all the way around. The long term good news is that pain is often the first step toward transformation.

]]> http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/06/23/keep-on-trucking-%e2%80%93-not/feed/ 7 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/01/21/what-transportation-in-the-us-could-look-like-in-the-year-2015/ http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/01/21/what-transportation-in-the-us-could-look-like-in-the-year-2015/#comments Mon, 21 Jan 2008 20:08:39 +0000 david http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/01/21/what-transportation-in-the-us-could-look-like-in-the-year-2015/ In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains could operate in the highly populated corridors mentioned in the last post.  These are mostly on a north-south axis.  Utilization of these trains would alleviate congestion in the air and at airports.  Airlines, using ever more fuel efficient planes, could be the primary transcontinental and east-west transport.  Airports in cities served by high speed trains could have direct local trains connect to the central train station.

By 2015 a significant percentage of cars on the road can be plug-in hybrids or pure plug-in vehicles.  Both GM, with their Chevrolet Volt, and now Toyota have promised mass production of plug-ins by 2010-2011.  Currently Americans keep their cars for an average of 8 years.  Hybrids are already being sold.  This means that by 2015 50% or more of the cars on the road in the country can be either pure electric or hybrids.  The benefits of this are obvious:  much lower consumption ...]]> In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains could operate in the highly populated corridors mentioned in the last post.  These are mostly on a north-south axis.  Utilization of these trains would alleviate congestion in the air and at airports.  Airlines, using ever more fuel efficient planes, could be the primary transcontinental and east-west transport.  Airports in cities served by high speed trains could have direct local trains connect to the central train station.

By 2015 a significant percentage of cars on the road can be plug-in hybrids or pure plug-in vehicles.  Both GM, with their Chevrolet Volt, and now Toyota have promised mass production of plug-ins by 2010-2011.  Currently Americans keep their cars for an average of 8 years.  Hybrids are already being sold.  This means that by 2015 50% or more of the cars on the road in the country can be either pure electric or hybrids.  The benefits of this are obvious:  much lower consumption of oil, perhaps alleviating the need for importing oil altogether, much lower CO2 emissions, lower transportation costs and lowered noise levels (electric cars are quiet).

The gaps between long distance travel and city travel are the regional areas around major cities that have grown up in the last 20 years.  Exurbia as it is called was a land use vision based upon cheap oil and cheap energy in general.  Exurbia now seems to be at risk of becoming a dinosaur-like anachronism and monument to developer greed and short term planning.  The transportation solution here is to connect these distant suburbs to the city via high speed electric trains. (Simultaneous to this of course is increasing the bandwidth of high speed internet access to lessen the need for those living in exurbia to commute into the central city.  Simply reducing the number of days that someone needs to commute from five to three will obviously help in the reduction of energy consumption and stress on the transportation system.)  Suburbs could be easily connected with electric buses that have exclusive use of lanes to allow for higher speed transport than currently possible.

Amidst all this high tech, electric, intelligent and energy efficient reconfiguration of America’s transportation system must be added a centuries old invention, the bicycle. The country has come a long way in the last 20 years in creating bicycle paths and bicycle right of ways in cities.  However, all one needs to go is go to most central and northern European countries to see how far America can go in integrating bicycles into the transportation mix.  As we have vast parking lots for cars at commuter train stations, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands have large, covered areas to store one’s bicycle before getting on the electric train to commute to work.  Not an ounce of gas is used for the day’s round trip commute.  This might also help is lowering our comparatively higher rates of heart disease and diabetes. 

All of this can happen.  The technology is either in place or, as in the case of battery innovation being developed at a furious pace. What is needed are two things.  First, there needs to be true visionary and committed leadership in Washington D.C. and state capitols to mandate and support this vision.  Second, the citizenry needs to decide that this vision is motivational enough to over come laziness, bad habits, and self-centered  convenience.  What could prompt both of these things to occur?  $125 barrel oil combined with spot shortages so that gas can only be purchased on designated days.  Add on to this a promoted awareness that our country is sending two billion dollars a day to countries that don’t necessarily like us except for the fact that we are addicted to the product they are happily selling us.  In addition, the ever increasing inconvenience of air travel, commuting gridlock and the perceived consequences of global warming will move us to wake up. 

As a nation we are starting to move in the right direction, but that movement is not nearly committed or fast enough.  We might need the perfect storm of negative experiences and perceptions described above to prompt us to react.  The certainty of that increases every day we continue down our current path.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline. Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

In Europe and Japan, high speed trains have been a way of life for decades. Comfortable, fast, environmentally sound and connecting the central city centers, high speed trains have become the backbone of convenient transportation. ...]]> High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider. A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline. Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

In Europe and Japan, high speed trains have been a way of life for decades. Comfortable, fast, environmentally sound and connecting the central city centers, high speed trains have become the backbone of convenient transportation. Recently, the French national railroad, SNCF, set a new speed record of 575kph/345mph. [Check out the video of that speed trial here]. While that speed was reached on a special speed test, high speed trains in Europe and Japan routinely exceed 200 mph. At these or even slower speeds, for distances under 500 miles, it takes the same amount of time to travel with trains as with planes. When one flies, one usually has to travel for half an hour to get to the airport, get to the airport an hour before departure, go through security and then hope the plane leaves on time or is not cancelled. Upon arrival one must use ground transportation for another amount of time to get to one’s destination. When taking the train in Europe, one arrives at the central city train station 15-20 minutes before departure and then getting off the train at a train station close to your specific destination. Trains might be delayed, but they are never cancelled.

The only experience similar to this in the U.S. today is the Acela Express train that runs from Boston to Washington D.C at speeds ranging from 75 to 150 mph. As anyone who has taken it from New York to Boston or from Washington to New York. knows, it takes about the same amount of time as flying between those cities but with a lot less hassle. One can read, work and eat on the train. If in the quiet car there is no conversation or use of cell phones. In other cars, one can use the cell phone almost the entire way. And you don’t have to take off your shoes at all if you don’t want to.

The consistent argument historically against trains in the U.S. is that the country is so much bigger than Japan or EU countries. That is true. However, there are several population corridors in the U.S. that would be well served by high speed trains. In addition to the Boston — D.C. route, we could have the Atlanta-Birmingham-New Orleans-Houston-San Antonio route, the Kansas City-Oklahoma City-Dallas-Houston route, the Minneapolis-Milwaukee-Chicago-Indianapolis-Cincinnati route, the Denver-Albuquerque route, the Seattle-Portland route and of course the San Francisco — San Diego route. If all these routes were in place and served with high speed trains, a significant amount of the dangerous air traffic congestion would diminish, greenhouse gases would diminish and reliance upon foreign oil could be lowered.

When comparing trains to cars, trains look good. They are more energy efficient, contribute less to global warming, use less land, are much safer, allow riders to be productive in transit and allow the rider to arrive more happy and relaxed. When the high speed train network is connected to the local train networks, it is possible to travel between two cities and never use an internal combustion vehicle at all. Thousands of people regularly do this with the Acela between N.Y. and D.C., taking the N.Y. subway to the Acela and then taking the Metro in D.C. to their destination.

It is time for the U.S. to learn from, buy from and take lessons from the EU and Japan in their use of high speed trains and regular trains to provide safe, energy efficient, hassle free and reliable transportation.