Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier. In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction. Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100. This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country.

Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 – 125 for the foreseeable future. The current global marketplace is such that it is hard to imagine the price dipping below $80 but there are a lot of scenarios that could ultimately drive it above $125. The actual trigger for the recent price increase is an explosion in a Texas refinery that processes 70,000 barrels a day, which is less that one half of one percent of the daily U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels a day. That is how tight the oil market is. There is little or no excess refining capacity in the world.

Demand is and will consistently outstrip supply in the oil market. Any perceived fall off in U.S. consumption due to an economic slow down will be more than offset by the increased demand from China and India and other developing countries. This will be a constant for the foreseeable future. When one …

In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains could operate in the highly populated corridors mentioned in the last post.  These are mostly on a north-south axis.  Utilization of these trains would alleviate congestion in the air and at airports.  Airlines, using ever more fuel efficient planes, could be the primary transcontinental and east-west transport.  Airports in cities served by high speed trains could have direct local trains connect to the central train station.

By 2015 a significant percentage of cars on the road can be plug-in hybrids or pure plug-in vehicles.  Both GM, with their Chevrolet Volt, and now Toyota have promised mass production of plug-ins by 2010-2011.  Currently Americans keep their cars for an average of 8 years.  Hybrids are already being sold.  This means that by 2015 50% or more of the cars on the road in the country can be either pure electric or hybrids.  The benefits of this are obvious:  much lower consumption …

High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider. A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline. Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

In Europe and Japan, high speed trains have been a way of life for decades. Comfortable, fast, environmentally sound and connecting the central city centers, high speed trains have become the backbone of convenient transportation. …

This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008.  The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year.  In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end. 
We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age.  The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age.  This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.
General Trends and Dynamics
1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering its’ global stage of evolution.  Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary.  The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic.  This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on.  It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right.  Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..
2. The Flow to Individual …