I am back after taking the longest hiatus in the 16 month life of this blog.  I would like to think this futurist was missed, but this is August and I would imagine most readers would be either be languidly lying about on vacation or keeping a nervous eye on the stock markets, both activities with a decidedly short term focus.  The happy reason for my absence is that I was married to and then took a mini-honeymoon with my lovely new wife Victoria.  Married in a Rose Garden, we metaphorically promised that to each other for the rest of our lives and of course will always stop to smell the sweet fragrance along the way.

There is much to write about in the weeks ahead as there have been many recent developments that are early snapshots of what lies ahead for us all. Later this week I want to comment on the turbulence of the financial markets that has been triggered by the crisis in mortgage backed securities and the subsequent tightening of credit.  As a preface to that I am republishing one of the very first columns that ever appeared here.  Published in March of 2006 it suggests that Fed Chairman Bernanke would be the first person in his position to face truly global financial issues.   I always try to suggest to you what might be around the corner or down the road.  In this case I was somewhat successful in that effort. 
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As mentioned in the last column I have had the opportunity to attend several conventions this year.  In January I attended the Consumer Electronic Show and the NATPE television conference, both in Las Vegas and in February the Chicago Auto Show.  This past weekend I was in New York attending the BEA book publishing convention.  I have attended a number of NATPE conventions, having been in the television business, but the other three were new to me to attend as both a futurist and as a member of the press.  Inevitably I spent a bit of time thinking comparatively on all four conventions. 

The CES show is a reflection not only of what is going on in the world, but was also what will be going on.  Given the speed and high level of innovation that technology and particularly the technology that people use for communication, entertainment and work, this convention has become a directional sign post on the future of the world. The media covers this convention excessively, telling its readers and viewers what they will be seeing, buying and using in the months and years ahead. [The comparison of the press rooms of these four conventions was startling.  At any one time there were 50-75 people furiously typing on keyboards in the press rooms of the CES, NATPE and Auto Shows.  I never saw more than 4 or 5 people doing so in the small press room at the BEA].
The NATPE convention is widely …

The writings here are about the future. I take a look at the Present through a futuristic filter. This means that of course to some degree, I am predicting what might happen in the future. Even knowing that, it was thrilling to find that already, in the very short life of this new blog, something written here as a prediction has already been validated.

The very first entry to Evolution Shift was written in early February and, as you can see from the list under Archives was entitled: ‘Exit Greenspan the Economist’s Rock Star”. In it I commented on the huge deal that was made about the great Greenspan stepping down from the Fed and the general report that his successor, Ben Bernanke had huge shoes to fill. The thrust of the entry was that Greenspan was the ‘last great Fed Chairman’ in the traditional sense, that Bernanke was the first Fed Chairman to step into that position with the Global Economy in place. To quote from that entry of early February:

“I believe that Greenspan was the last, great Fed Chairman in the traditional mold. The definition of success has changed. Bernanke, and those that will follow him, have a new dynamic that will be part of the effectiveness and measurement of the job: the success they have in the area of global cooperation as it affects monetary supply and other Fed instruments.”

I went on to say that this analysis was based on the fact that though the Fed and Greenspan …

This past week, Alan Greenspan stepped down after 18 years as Fed Chairman. This was not only a story that was on the front page of the business sections, it was on the front page of the newspapers and one of the lead stories on the nightly newscasts. The Great Greenspan had steered the country through crises, and was now riding off into his emeritus sunset, a true economic hero.

I believe that Greenspan was the last, great Fed Chairman in the traditional mold. The definition of success has changed. Bernanke, and those that will follow him, have a new dynamic that will be part of the effectiveness and measurement of the job: the success they have in the area of global cooperation as it affects monetary supply and other Fed instruments.

This first popped into my mind during the run up in short term interest rates that Greenspan led in the last three years. When the constant quarter point raises in the Fed rate was underway, the consensus, based on history, was that, after a lag time, the long term interest rates would also rise. The primary focus was the mortgage market, as historically those rates went up.

Something happened: they didn’t really move up that much. What was going on? Greenspan himself stated that he was surprised. When he couldn’t put the skids on the heated housing market by waving the raising interest rate wand he started to sputter about the ‘housing bubble’ in a way similar to his ‘frothy exuberance’ …