There were three reported news stories last week that taken together point to clear trend lines.  In a court ruling, the state of Vermont won the right to set auto emissions and MPG standards that are stricter than those of the Federal government.  The dollar reached an all time low against the Euro and oil crossed over the $80 a barrel price barrier.  

Vermont is one of twelve states where the state government is going to court to gain the right to institute lower emission standards.  Most of these initiatives are patterned after a policy already signed in California. This points to the continued lack of any leadership whatsoever regarding energy in Washington D.C.  The states are where the leadership is to do what is necessary regarding energy.  Neither the Federal government nor the auto makers are leading the way toward lower emissions in any meaningful way.  This case precedent will most likely affect the court battles in the other states.  [Note: since the Vermont decision, there was a court decision in California where a suit blaming automakers over emissions and requesting damages was thrown out.  In that case, the judge ruled that it was not a proper task for the courts to rule in this area, therefore sending it back to the other two branches of state government to institute laws regarding damages due to greenhouse gas emissions].

The long term trend in oil prices is up.  In early 2006 and again at the beginning of 2007 I predicted that …

The past few weeks have not been good ones for products manufactured in China and financial instruments created in the United States.  The “Made in China” brand is now an un-trustworthy brand to millions of American consumers.  New, mortgage backed debt instruments, highly rated by U.S. bond rating agencies are now being questioned in financial capitols around the world.
In an earlier column entitled “Made in China” I discussed certain historical forces and timelines that are to some degree at cause for the recent rash of dangerous products being produced in China.  In a historically short period of 30 years, the country is moving from being a rural, agrarian economy to one of the largest industrial economies in the world.  In addition, in this same time period it is moving from being a secretive, xenophobic, communist state run by a central planning committee to a major player on the world economic stage that has standards of safety and openness.  This huge a transition in such a short time has never occurred, so a number of sizable bumps in the road are to be expected. 
This historical perspective notwithstanding, the Made in China brand is in serious trouble.  Most of the readers of this blog are probably either parents or pet owners.  If you are a parent, particularly of a young child, you will now look at all toy packaging and truly think twice before you buy a toy that has the words “Made in China” printed …

There are two future thinking filters through which I view the recent upheavals in the financial markets.  The first is that we are moving to a new and developing global society and that this can first be seen economically.  The second is that debt is something that must be looked with new perspective.  Today we look at the first filter.

Humanity has conclusively moved into the global stage of its evolution. There is no turning back.  There are more than six billion of us and that fact alone is enough to reorganize human endeavor to a global orientation. Human history shows us that economics usually leads the way with politics and culture following close behind.  Columbus ‘discovered’ America because he was looking for a trade route to India (at least now we refer to our indigenous people as Native Americans, no longer Indians) for the economic gain of Europe.  American politics and culture ultimately followed this initial economically driven endeavor.

BNP Paribas, the largest publicly traded bank in France suspended investors’ ability to withdraw money from funds that had invested in American mortgage securities.  When one of the largest financial institutions in Europe shuts down trading because of rising foreclosures in California it is clear that the financial marketplace is global.   Of course we have known this for years, particularly since the advent of electronic fund transfers.  Money flows electronically around the world without any regard to borders or time zones.  Now that money has lost much of its’ physical characteristics, it …

I am back after taking the longest hiatus in the 16 month life of this blog.  I would like to think this futurist was missed, but this is August and I would imagine most readers would be either be languidly lying about on vacation or keeping a nervous eye on the stock markets, both activities with a decidedly short term focus.  The happy reason for my absence is that I was married to and then took a mini-honeymoon with my lovely new wife Victoria.  Married in a Rose Garden, we metaphorically promised that to each other for the rest of our lives and of course will always stop to smell the sweet fragrance along the way.

There is much to write about in the weeks ahead as there have been many recent developments that are early snapshots of what lies ahead for us all. Later this week I want to comment on the turbulence of the financial markets that has been triggered by the crisis in mortgage backed securities and the subsequent tightening of credit.  As a preface to that I am republishing one of the very first columns that ever appeared here.  Published in March of 2006 it suggests that Fed Chairman Bernanke would be the first person in his position to face truly global financial issues.   I always try to suggest to you what might be around the corner or down the road.  In this case I was somewhat successful in that effort. 
 …