There is a lot of pessimism in the air.  As we come to the end of the first month of 2008 it seems that many are in a negative, hunker down state of mind.  The stock markets are being fueled by fear.  The commentators are speaking as though a major recession has begun. Casualties continue at too high a level in foreign combat, and of course it is cold and dark outside for much of the country.  All this in a country that seems to have optimism in its national fiber. 

The Pew Research Center just published a study that basically states that people are more pessimistic than usual coming into 2008.  The Pew Center has consistently polled Americans in December about whether they think the following year will be better or worse that the year just ending.  The numbers for December 2007 were that 50% of the people thought 2008 would be better, and 34% thought it will be worse.  This compares to 57% and 28% in December 2006.  In December 1998 the numbers were 59% and 25%.  Finally, in the middle of the Internet bubble, 66% thought that 2000 would better than 1999 while only 19% thought it would be worse (in spite of the looming Y2K fear that was rampant that month).

 Fear seems to spread virally …

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3.  During these past two days I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year.  

A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that point.  

As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead.  I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.  It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it.  When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that.  My reaction?  Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?
The long term trend in oil and gas prices is ever upward.  I do think that the trading range for oil for the next year at least will be $80-125.  …

Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time.  May 2008 be a happy year for everyone.  I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard.  I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks.  Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008. 

As I have stated here several times, a fundamental aspect of being a futurist is to look for patterns to discern the dynamics that will shape our collective future.  Events, inventions, social, cultural and economic developments, trailblazing efforts by individuals and small groups, when looked at collectively can reveal underlying patterns and trends, both macro and micro.  Here are some notable developments that point into our future, some of which will be looked at in greater detail in future columns.
Writers’ Strike
 
The writers’ strike in the entertainment business is now two months old. Its’ length, the animosity it has engendered and the immediate consequences of it are significant.  It has within it the seeds of structural and permanent change in the entertainment business. The annual …

There were three reported news stories last week that taken together point to clear trend lines.  In a court ruling, the state of Vermont won the right to set auto emissions and MPG standards that are stricter than those of the Federal government.  The dollar reached an all time low against the Euro and oil crossed over the $80 a barrel price barrier.  

Vermont is one of twelve states where the state government is going to court to gain the right to institute lower emission standards.  Most of these initiatives are patterned after a policy already signed in California. This points to the continued lack of any leadership whatsoever regarding energy in Washington D.C.  The states are where the leadership is to do what is necessary regarding energy.  Neither the Federal government nor the auto makers are leading the way toward lower emissions in any meaningful way.  This case precedent will most likely affect the court battles in the other states.  [Note: since the Vermont decision, there was a court decision in California where a suit blaming automakers over emissions and requesting damages was thrown out.  In that case, the judge ruled that it was not a proper task for the courts to rule in this area, therefore sending it back to the other two branches of state government to institute laws regarding damages due to greenhouse gas emissions].

The long term trend in oil prices is up.  In early 2006 and again at the beginning of 2007 I predicted that …