Regular readers know that I have often written about Intellectual Property in this space.  IP is increasingly important in the valuation of all enterprises.  I provided a historical context to this trend here, and later talked about Ocean Tomo, one of the companies that is helping to create the IP marketplace.

As mentioned in one of the earlier columns, the percentage of the aggregate value of the S&P 500 companies that is IP has gone from 17% in 1975 to 80% in 2005. The transactional process of IP, until very recently, has largely been the same as it was 20 years ago. This inevitably means that a more fluent, liquid and transparent marketplace for IP must develop.  One of the initial developments over the past two years has been the IP auction.  While there are a number of these auctions, I have been privy to the Ocean Tomo auctions and using the results from these auctions alone the trend lines are very clear. 

Two weeks ago, Ocean Tomo had its’ spring auction in San Francisco.  Once again record prices for IP portfolios were reached.  One of the lots up for auction sold for $6,600,000, setting a new world record for a patent lot at a multi-lot live auction. The lot was for processing digital data in bit streams In addition there were three other lots that resulted in seven figures sales.  What is interesting about these numbers is they are solidly going upward.  Each auction sets a new world …

Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier.  In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction.  Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100.  This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country. 

Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 – 125 for the foreseeable future.  The current global marketplace is such that it is hard to imagine the price dipping below $80 but there are a lot of scenarios that could ultimately drive it above $125.   The actual trigger for the recent price increase is an explosion in a Texas refinery that processes 70,000 barrels a day, which is less that one half of one percent of the daily U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels a day. That is how tight the oil market is.  There is little or no excess refining capacity in the world.

Demand is and will consistently outstrip supply in the oil market.  Any perceived fall off in U.S. consumption due to an economic slow down will be more than offset by the increased demand from China and India and other developing countries.  This will be a constant for the foreseeable future.  When one layers on top of that supply/demand tension such things as …

There is a lot of pessimism in the air.  As we come to the end of the first month of 2008 it seems that many are in a negative, hunker down state of mind.  The stock markets are being fueled by fear.  The commentators are speaking as though a major recession has begun. Casualties continue at too high a level in foreign combat, and of course it is cold and dark outside for much of the country.  All this in a country that seems to have optimism in its national fiber. 

The Pew Research Center just published a study that basically states that people are more pessimistic than usual coming into 2008.  The Pew Center has consistently polled Americans in December about whether they think the following year will be better or worse that the year just ending.  The numbers for December 2007 were that 50% of the people thought 2008 would be better, and 34% thought it will be worse.  This compares to 57% and 28% in December 2006.  In December 1998 the numbers were 59% and 25%.  Finally, in the middle of the Internet bubble, 66% thought that 2000 would better than 1999 while only 19% thought it would be worse (in spite of the looming Y2K fear that was rampant that month).

 Fear seems to spread virally …

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3.  During these past two days I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year.  

A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that point.  

As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead.  I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.  It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it.  When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that.  My reaction?  Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?
The long term trend in oil and gas prices is ever upward.  I do think that the trading range for oil for the next year at least will be $80-125.  …