In the last column here, I suggested that any bailout of the Big Three include alternative energy metrics against which the three companies compete for better loan repayment terms.  In the week since that column was published there has been much discussion about whether America can afford to allow its’ auto industry to go down the tubes.  This implies that the Big Three represent the totality of America’s automotive production.

Of course there are the U.S. based factories of the German and Japanese manufacturers, which, while they produce cars here, are controlled and largely owned by other countries.  These factories have nothing to do with the Big Three except they are producing cars here but are making a profit.  Even beyond these companies, I would like to suggest is that the future of the automotive industry in the U.S. may well lie largely outside the Big Three.

In the early part of the 20^th century there were initially dozens of companies that produced automobiles.  Up until Henry Ford created mass production, Americans purchased cars from numerous producers that supplied limited scale but provided a great variety of internal combustion engine vehicles.  The history of the automobile business through the 20^th century is essentially one of consolidation so that by the last decade there were three standing.  During this last decade these three companies were exclusively focused on selling big vehicles with internal combustion engines that produced big profits. Prisoners of legacy thinking, all three of these companies were content to enter this …

Recently, I wrote about the Big Three Auto companies and how they need to change, and change their product lines if they wanted to stay “big”.   Since those columns there has been even more evidence that these companies are struggling to keep up with current realities.  Additional plants have closed, the production of trucks has been dramatically lowered, the projected number of vehicles to be sold this year has been lowered and now Chrysler has gotten out of the leasing business because the resale value of the big vehicles leased has plummeted.

Earlier in the year I wrote several columns about Brazil and how it will be one of the countries leading the world with economic growth, vision and innovation.  It is a country that leads the world in smart use of ethanol.  It is a country that has a sustained rate of economic growth and a country that seems to be finally realizing its potential as being the country of the future.

A good friend sent me a video about a Ford plant in Brazil that shows what the new and future auto manufacturing plants of the world can and will look like.  It is interesting that this Ford plant is in Brazil and not in the U.S.    Brazil is in the stage of becoming a new model country for manufacturing while the U.S. is stuck in institutional constructs of the last century.  The good news is that Ford has found a new way to …

Two weeks ago I said that I would be writing several columns about transportation in the U.S. This is the final one of that series, at least for now. In the life of this blog I have written about the future of transportation and what it will and should look like. I am sure I will revisit the topic again as it is one of the most critical transitions this country will have to make over the next ten years.

In January, I wrote about high speed trains with the recommendation that they become a cornerstone in the new foundation of U.S transportation. That column was followed up by suggesting a vision of what transportation in the U.S. could look like in 2015. Since that time of course oil has continued its price climb, and the pain at the pump has translated into significant changes in behavior, noted here and here. It is now a fact that $4 a gallon gasoline was the pain threshold needed. As citizens of the U.S. and the world we need to act with certainty that this will be the price floor for gasoline long-term.

In the above referenced columns I wrote about a new vision for transportation in this country. In the North – South corridors of the country that are highly populated, such as the Boston – Miami corridor, the Minneapolis – Indianapolis corridor, the Denver – Houston corridor and …

GM, Ford and Chrysler represent to a large degree the Industrial Age legacy of manufacturing in the U.S. “What was good for General Motors was good for the United States” was, for decades in the 20^th century a very true statement. The manufacturing might of America post WWII was an economic miracle and the apotheosis of the Industrial Age. Supported by the explosive growth of television and the American advertising business, the consumer market of wondrous new goods exploded. The Big Three auto companies rode this wave to unprecedented success.

Every year, there were the exciting new model introductions of all the auto makes in the Fall. Families became conditioned to buying new cars every few years just to keep up with the styling – and their neighbors.. Planned obsolescence was part of the business plan of the U.S. auto industry. The oil embargo of 1973-74 was a major hiccup and it provided a market opportunity for Japanese auto makers to enter the market with small cars that provided higher MPG than those provided by the Big Three. Once the price of oil collapsed after the Iranian revolution the next two decades of cheap oil allowed the Big Three to manufacture ever bigger SUVs and trucks which they sold the American public with their powerful marketing efforts.

The problem was that the leadership of the Big Three never adjusted to the post-9/11 world. Oil has increased in price by 1400% since 1998 and …

The fact that you know what I mean when I write the two words “Big Three” points to the power of Detroit and U.S. automotive marketing in the last half of the 20^th century. The fact that they are no longer the big three in terms of sales in the U.S. points to the reality of the 21^st century.

This year Toyota will finally top GM in sales in the U.S. In 2005 GM’s market share was twice that of Toyota’s. Think Prius and fuel economy. GM recently announced the closing of four manufacturing plants in North America and Mexico. Guess what they made there? Trucks and SUVs. Think $4 and soon $5 gallon gasoline. Since 1991, the Ford F-150 pick-up truck was the number one selling vehicle every year in the U.S. Not this year. 2007 will be the last year that a pick up truck will ever be the best selling vehicle in the country. Chrysler, while still getting plenty of style points for their vehicles, has been sold twice and, like Ford and GM is losing billions of dollars. Wall Street is downgrading Big Three stocks. The early 20^th century phrase: “What is good for General Motors is good for America” is no longer operative because GM lost their view on what was good for America.

Now, long time readers of this column know that I have written positively about GM in past columns. …