In my last column I wrote that humanity is in transition from one Age to another and that the global financial collapse is a painful part of that transition.  This occurs during any major historical transition period.  In addition I wrote:

“There are four words that keep coming back to me as I view the landscape of what lies ahead in 2009 and beyond.  They are contraction, cleansing, reorganization and transformation.  It is these four words to keep in mind as you read the forecasts here and look around you”

I repeat that because most of the economic predictions below are about contraction and cleansing.  However I am not a pessimist as I believe that we are in a process of reorganization that can lead to transformation.  Please keep that in mind as you read on.

The U.S. economy has been in a recession for close to a year, with the fourth quarter being one of the worst quarters on record.  During this fourth quarter the global economy joined the U.S.  When all the numbers come in for this quarter they will show a major contraction probably in the range of 4-7%.  In a column in mid-October, I wrote:

“We will witness one of the worst holiday retail seasons in history on a year to year comparison basis.  People who feel that they have no control over the performance of their investments will realize that the only control they have is in the area of spending which they will …

The year 2008 will obviously go down as one of the most eventful years in recent history.  It was the year that Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.  It was the year that the Internet replaced print and TV as the driving force in a presidential election. It was the beginning of the end of 15 years of divisive cultural politics in America.

2008 was the year of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.  This collapse was the first one since the beginning of the new global economy and thus showed how humanity and all of its nation states are financially interconnected in a historically unprecedented way.  This global financial collapse is historically significant for several reasons.  First it did show that money and finance knows no national boundaries, and that nation states can no longer individually deal with major financial crises.  Second it is the start of the process to cleanse the global and particularly U.S economy from over leveraged, debt oriented mindless growth and consumption that has been a result of the mindless support of unlimited growth without thought of personal, national and global consequences.  Third it represents a clear albeit disruptive and painful part of the transition that humanity is now making from one age, the Information Age, to the new age, the Shift Age.

2008 was the year when people around the world, and most strikingly Americans, make a sudden and profound switch from consumption, debt and spending to, thrift, saving and shedding …

We are coming to an end of the greatest financial age of sports in history.  The twelve years between 1996 and 2008 were years when the money around sports exploded beyond any precedent era.  This also means that, going forward, the economics around sports in general will decline, at least for the next 5-8 years if not longer.

The bookends for these 12 years of explosive financial growth are the Atlanta Olympics in 1996 and the Beijing Olympics of 2008.  The Atlanta Olympics were the first post-cold war Olympics and, being held in the U.S. created a huge marketing platform.  The Beijing Olympics was the coming out party for the most populous country in the world and gave  recognition to China as a major player on the world’s geopolitical and financial stages.

In 1996 cable television had become a dominant media force in the U.S.  ESPN, and all of its networks, was beginning to take its’ place as the behemoth of sports television.  Regional sports networks, TBS and TNT soon joined the party and it seemed that sports were everywhere on TV.  The broadcast networks and all of these cable entities competed for the rights of all major sports.  The fees paid to the NFL, MLB, the NBA, and the college football conferences exploded.  This led to dramatically increased player salaries, advertising rates and, for the consumer, rapidly increasing cable bills.  Of course it also led to much lower ratings as nothing was special any more.  Even though Monday Night Football on …

A global shift in consciousness has occurred during October.  Trust and confidence have given way to fear and uncertainty. Plans and expectations have been completely altered or dashed altogether.  Governments, entire industries, equity markets and the majority of the adult populations in the developed countries of the world are staring into a financial abyss that has no correlation to anything any of them have experienced (unless they are 80 years or older).

Governments separately, and then in consort struggle to stay ahead of a financial catastrophe they can’t quite fathom.  Hundreds of millions of people feel as thought they have been punched in the gut.  Standing on solid ground becomes a metaphor desperately longed for rather than a reality.  For every theory about what to do with one’s money there is an opposite one put forth.  Financial volatility seems omnipresent.   All of this has produced a shift in consciousness that is palpable.

When belief systems come under attack or are shown to be false, when institutional reliability becomes highly questionable,  when what used to work no longer does,  when it feels that events point to not just change but disruption, then it is time to do two things.

First, one must change one’s behavior.  As I have written here, it is clear that consumerism will take a severe hit and that the next two years will be a time of a massive economic downturn.  Thrift will become a dominant value in countries around the world.  Risk and debt will become four letter words …

More than a year ago, I wrote a column about two damaged brands. One damaged brand was the “Made in China” brand and the other was the well respected financial brand of Wall Street.  At that time China was dealing with the fact that pet food produced in China was killing pets all over the world and that toys produced in China had extremely unsafe levels of lead.  Also at that time Wall Street was beginning to deal with the meltdown of the mortgage backed securities market.

This column immediately came to mind last week.  In the same week that the $700 billion bail out was being discussed in Washington, China was basically shutting down its’ dairy business due to criminal negligence and bribery.  More than 50,000 Chinese infants have been stricken with life threatening kidney ailments due to the addition of melamine to most baby formula and milk products.  There are two things that are similar to both these crises.  First, the dairy industry in China and the mortgage backed securities market in the U.S. were woefully under regulated.  Second, those in power made firm assurances that changes would be made and that consumers and investors did not have to worry, that the worst was over.   Lack of oversight combined with outright fraud in both cases now results in two brands that will need years to resurrect themselves. They both made me think of the man standing in the alley opening up his overcoat to reveal stolen …