In the past year I have found that framing conversations about certain topics with the context of being of the 20^th century or of the 21^st century to be clarifying for most people.

I have written extensively about humanity being in transition between the Information Age and the Shift Age.  Those who have heard me speak or read my writings come to understand and accept this.  That said, this is a higher concept than the simple reality of the calendar.  No one can dispute the numerical fact that we are 10% into the 21^st Century, unless you want to debate whether the scientific concept of linear time verses the older concepts of cyclical time or chaotic time.

Once you start to look at the world, its’ institutions and both business categories and specific companies, through this 20^th versus 21^st century filter, things become clearer.

Here are some examples:

I could go on for pages, but the lists above should both provide clarity and food for thought.

A very simple way to look at the world is through this filter as it will bring clarity as to what will last and what won’t, to what will be significant and what will not be.  It is clear that companies created in the 20^th century that …

“The chances further down the road seem to me better on the fuel-cell side than on the battery-electric side”

There are a number of readers of this blog and members of the audiences when I speak that just seem to think that hydrogen fuel cell autos are a pipe dream that has no chance of becoming a reality in the next decade.  Comments like the quote above provoke a general dismissal as not being realistic.

During the last three years, I have forecast that 2010-2015 would begin the age of the electric automobile and that 2015-2020 would begin the age of the hydrogen fuel cell automobile.  People accept the first part of that forecast but somehow can’t seem to allow themselves to believe that hydrogen fuel cell cars will ever get to scale.  There is no question that scalability is a problem for hydrogen fuel cell technologies.  There are not enough fueling stations to warrant the production of fuel cell autos and there aren’t enough fuel cell autos to warrant the construction of hydrogen fueling stations.  Joseph Heller’s classic “Catch 22″ in full display..

Here and in speeches I have suggested that now is one of those times when the federal government needs to step up and invest in critically needed infrastructure.  In the 1930’s  FDR had the government fund massive projects that created the hydro-electric industry in the U.S.  In the 1950s Eisenhower signed the Interstate Highway bill, creating the national highway system that we all rely for personal transport and the …

In the last column we looked at the general dynamics underlying the reality and need to create an automotive industry in the U.S for the 21^st century. We now take a look at what this industry might look like. An analysis of trends, developing technologies and the role that the federal government can and should play, makes it is clear that this industry will be substantially different than that of the 20^th century.

At the beginning of the 20^th century there were dozens of car companies.  The story of the last century is one of consolidation so that by the 1990s there were only the Big Three and a few foreign companies producing vehicles in the U.S.  These companies from the last century will continue as the scale part of the business for the next 5-10 years.  They will be joined by smaller, more nimble companies that will bring innovation to the marketplace.  Tesla and Aptera, mentioned in the last column are just two examples.  There is a real possibility that there will be dozens of companies by 2015.  The new companies will not provide scale, at least initially, but they will lead the market with innovation.  Some companies may produce hundreds of vehicles, others thousands, others tens of thousands.  These companies will successfully compete with the big companies on the playing field of innovation.

Clearly the cars produced in the next 10-15 years will be generally smaller, much more fuel efficient and will use less and less gasoline.  The first stage …

In the last column I wrote about the National Hydrogen Association annual conference and that it was both informative and generated unprecedented attendance from the public.  One of the most exciting aspects of the conference was the opportunity to drive hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, a first for me.  I drove three vehicles, and the experience was, in a word spectacular.

The first vehicle was the Daimler A-Class F-Cell from Mercedes.  A small, compact car, the driving experience was incredible smooth, responsive and of course very quiet as there was no motor that needed muffling.  It was unnerving to accelerate with no sound.  The car handling was very tight and responsive.  It handled like a dream and was the most fun I have had driving a compact car.

The second car to drive was the Equinox Fuel Cell small SUV from GM.  While I am not a fan of SUVs this vehicle is wonderful. I pressed ‘pedal to the metal’ and the acceleration was immediate and silent.  All aspects of handling, braking and acceleration were superb.  When my test drive was over, I asked to have the hood lifted so I could actually see the fuel cell.  Where the engine usually is in an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), there is a fuel cell about the size of a large beverage cooler.  There are many fewer moving parts than an ICE vehicle which of course will, when the vehicle goes on sale, dramatically cut down on repairs and maintenance.

Currently the Equinox Fuel …

The discussion about bailing out the Big Three has been couched in terms that imply that the Big Three represent the complete future of the automotive business in the U.S.  As I have suggested, if they are to be bailed out they should be given money based upon measurable metrics.  I have also suggested that they represent thinking from the 20^th century, the century of the internal combustion engine, which is not the future of automotive transportation this century.

I am for providing help for the Big Three assuming they come up with an intelligent plan for spending tax payer money. As stated in a prior column any such plan would include rapid conversion to selling a fleet that has an average 45 mpg and the developing of electric plug-in vehicles. What I would like to suggest is that if there is some $25 billion on the table, that the American taxpayer be given either alternative or additional ways to invest for America’s automotive future.

As I said in a prior column, at the beginning of the 20^th century there were dozens of car companies and by the end there were three standing.  That is a good metaphor for what is going in the electric car business today.  There are numerous small companies that manufacturing electric cars, converting internal combustion engine cars to also run on battery power and many other companies working flat out to create new types of batteries that might power our cars in the …