January 29th, 2014
[This column was first published in the Shift Age Newsletter #27]
Eight years ago I first began to write and speak about the future full time. Then, as always, I was asked about what accurate forecasts I had made. This told me of course that my legitimacy to some degree would be based upon this. So I did start to make forecasts.
The second thing I realized was that most people, and certainly people who lead institutions and companies, are interested in what will happen six months to five years out as that is what is their primary …
September 1st, 2010
Last November, I wrote a column here about the future of cable television. In that column from last November I forecast:
“Cable television subscriptions will experience noticeable percentage declines in the next three to five years.”
Last week it was announced that for the first time in history paid television subscriptions dropped 216,000 with cable taking the greatest hit.
The conventional wisdom of course is that this is due to the bad economic conditions of today. Of course that is a factor, but the times have been bad for the past two years. The new dynamic is what I touched upon …
October 21st, 2009
To many, the absolute collapse of the magazine industry in 2009 may seem stunning. What is stunning to me is that the industry didn’t see it coming and take steps to avert this collapse. Once again, another industry can only see a year ahead and thinks that a down year – 2008 – would be followed by a flat or up year. Historically in the advertising business that has been the career experience of the senior executives, so why not look to the past for reassurance?
The Big Three auto companies had an insular culture that didn’t pay attention to outside …