latest posts

Revisiting Some Forecasts

[ This first appeared a week ago in my Shift Age Newsletter.  ]

In the first eight months of 2011, I made some economic forecasts relative to the global economic landscape.  As a futurist, that is part of what I do, as people always ask me about the future, particularly economics.  It is only fair to be accountable in this regard.

Here are some of the forecasts I made, with current commentary:

In January of 2011 I said that the growth rate of the US GDP would be 2% for the year. Well I got that one right.  In …

In my last column I wrote that humanity is in transition from one Age to another and that the global financial collapse is a painful part of that transition.  This occurs during any major historical transition period.  In addition I wrote:

“There are four words that keep coming back to me as I view the landscape of what lies ahead in 2009 and beyond.  They are contraction, cleansing, reorganization and transformation.  It is these four words to keep in mind as you read the forecasts here and look around you”

I repeat that because most of the economic predictions below …

In my columns of forecasts for 2008 I made clear and distinct predictions about debt, the housing market and the stock market.

Debt

On January 1 I wrote:

“The key economic word for 2007 and even more so for 2008 will be “debt”.  It is debt that is the true economic issue for the individual, the company, the state, the country, the world.  How all of these economic entities deal with debt will be one of the two key economic issues we will face in the coming years.  Energy of course is the other.”

On    in a subsequent detailed column on debt, …

Debt, Debt, Debt, Debt

Debt is one of the primary underpinnings of the economic turbulence we are now experiencing.  In the last 50 years debt has gone from something occasional to something universal, embraced and now endemic. Borrow against the future to pay for today.  Debt, debt, debt, debt is like the drip, drip, drip, drip of a faucet that slowing fills up a sink and overflows.  The four debts referred to here are personal, corporate, city and state and federal.  All of them feel as though they are beginning to come home to roost and the outlook, if not faced and dealt with, …