China was struck by a historically unprecedented snow storm last week.  Just the sheer amount of snow completely paralyzed all types of transportation, ground and air.  Power lines were snapped, cutting power to tens of millions of people.  Power was cut so that a significant portion of China’s railroad system was powerless to move people and supplies.  What made this even worse was the timing, which coincided with the major holiday of the year, the Chinese New Year.  More than 200 million people travel on this holiday.  When a large percentage of these people finally reached the train stations they found them without power and without trains.

There were many images that made me think of Katrina. Pictures of vast amounts of people jammed together in large numbers, shivering in the cold with no place to go made me think of vast amounts of people clinging to high ground or crowded into shelters..  Thousands of people, mostly military actually using snow shovels to clear major highways as there is no large snow removal equipment made me think of small boats with outboard motors rescuing people and animals from flood waters.  Leaders of the country, fearful of rioting and unrest actually found their way to train stations to try to calm the teeming millions with megaphones.

I do not have enough information to determine whether the government reacted with appropriate speed and compassion.  They probably did.  That is where the comparison between this snow storm and Katrina in not appropriate. The incompetence of …

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3.  During these past two days I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year.  

A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that point.  

As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead.  I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.  It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it.  When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that.  My reaction?  Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?
The long term trend in oil and gas prices is ever upward.  I do think that the trading range for oil for the next year at least will be $80-125.  …

As a futurist, I look at long term trends and waves of history.  The three waves of history we know have been the Agricultural Age, the Industrial Age and the Information Age.  The first age began some 10,000 years ago when man first began to literally put down roots.  The second age began some 250 years ago with the invention of the steam engine.  The third age began some 30 years ago with communications satellites, computers, the explosive growth of the white collar work force and the birth of the electronic global village envisioned by Marshall McLuhan.

We are now entering a new age, the Shift Age.  In the months ahead I will write in some detail about this age because – shameless plug here – it is a name I have coined and is also the title of my book that will be published in the first quarter of 2008.  For this column however I will focus on just one of the distinguishing characteristics of the Shift Age.  The Shift Age marks humanity’s last, at least on this planet, stage of evolution, the global stage.  Humanity has ultimately and finally entered this global stage and there is no turning back.

In 1974, around the beginning of the Information Age, humanity reached 4 billion in number.  We are now at 6.7 billion which means that our species has grown 66% in the last 33 years, an astonishing fact.  This is one of the two primary drivers of global warming, the shear growth …

Thanksgiving is, in many ways, the truest of holidays.  It is not connected to a religion or to a national political event.  It is about giving thanks and sharing life’s abundance, manifested by a large meal to be shared by friends and family.  Giving thanks for all the wonderfulness of this planet.

On Thanksgiving day in 2030, I hope my then middle aged son will be sharing this day with loved ones hopefully including me.  I hope that they all will be able to give thanks for what those of us alive today did between 2007 and 2015 to mobilize humanity to slow and start to reverse global warming.  That is the window we have to allow those of us still living and our descendents to have some semblance of a Thanksgiving that might be similar to the one we celebrate in 2007.

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change issued its’ final, synthesis report this past weekend.  The fact that it had recently won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Al Gore gives the I.P.C.C. an amplified voice for this, its’ fourth and final report.  The report is stunning in its conclusions and recommendations. It puts in stark relief the fact that urgent and global action must be taken immediately to avoid almost unimaginable consequences.

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