This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008.  The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year.  In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end. 

We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age.  The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age.  This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.

General Trends and Dynamics

1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering its’ global stage of evolution.  Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary.  The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic.  This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on.  It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right.  Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..

2. The Flow to Individual …

Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time.  May 2008 be a happy year for everyone.  I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard.  I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks.  Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008. 

As I have stated here several times, a fundamental aspect of being a futurist is to look for patterns to discern the dynamics that will shape our collective future.  Events, inventions, social, cultural and economic developments, trailblazing efforts by individuals and small groups, when looked at collectively can reveal underlying patterns and trends, both macro and micro.  Here are some notable developments that point into our future, some of which will be looked at in greater detail in future columns.

Writers’ Strike

The writers’ strike in the entertainment business is now two months old. Its’ length, the animosity it has engendered and the immediate consequences of it are significant.  It has within it the seeds of structural and permanent change in the entertainment business. The annual …

Google has now made the long awaited announcement that it would be entering the wireless arena.  It was not a product, or “Google Phone” roll-out, but rather the announcement of OHA, or the Open Handset Alliance.  OHA(my choice to come up with an acronym as the full name sounds a bit too bureaucratic and almost Orwellian for me to type it a lot) is the next step in the globalization of connectivity and something I have anticipated and expected for a couple of years.

On this blog, and at conferences I point to the fact that it is the cell phone that is the true global technology. I have written about the explosive growth and sheer numbers of devices, of the technological innovation and how the cell phone has found a seat at the table of major media.  OHA takes the logical next step which is to break up the walled gardens of carriers and software suppliers.  Incompatibility is at odds with a world of  ever increasing connectedness.  Universality is one of the touch stones of our wireless future.  Another is the ongoing commoditization of the entire business pushing costs ever lower for the consumer.  OHA will facilitate both of these inevitable trends.

Google of course is doing this for business reasons.  They hope to dominate the mobile advertising marketplace the way they currently dominate the on-line one.  In addition, they seem to have a strong desire to attack the business constructs of Microsoft and other companies that sell …

In prior columns, here and here I have written about the transformative power of the cell phone.  Currently there are more than 2.1 billion cell phone accounts in the world and more than 220 million in the US.  More people have cell phones than have computers or use the Internet.  Globally, there are some 15 to 20 million news cell phone accounts opened up every month.

The cell phone has obviously changed the way we communicate.  We are all available all the time no matter where we are.  Text messaging is a new form of communication that did not exist before the cell phone.  We have all experienced altered communication and behavior patterns as a result of this great technology.  What is now becoming clear is that the cell phone is dramatically changing how we view and use the land line phone.

Mediamark Research just released a study that reported that 14% of U.S. adults now live in households with one or more cell phones but no landline phone.  That is an impressive statistic.  What makes it a milestone is that it was also reported that 12.3% of adults live in a household with a landline phone, but no cell phone.  For the first time in the U.S., there are now more cell phone only households than landline only households.  That is significant as the cell phone has moved from being something that was used outside the house to being the only phone.  Conversely, land …

People started using computers outside the corporate research lab in the 1950s.  The early computers created in garages were brought to market in the mid 1970s.  The PC came out in 1981.  The 1990s saw the early explosive growth of the laptop and the current decade is when the PDA and other wireless devices took off.  This 50 year history is punctuated by various breakthroughs in the computer human interface.  Each one of these breakthroughs changed usage, behavior and ultimately society.

Mainframe computing of the 1950s looked like a technological religion.  Well lit, air conditioned rooms housed large computers that were run by systems analysts and operated by trained computer operators.  Access was highly restricted.  It felt like one was entering the church of computer.  The output was printed on reams of computer paper (remember?) that was largely illegible to the average person.  Interpretation was provided by professionals. 

When the Apple, and later the PC came out humans could interact directly with small computers that sat on desktops with keyboards and screens.  The screens were largely monochromatic and filled with alphanumeric language that needed some training to understand.  Later the mouse was added which allowed windows, screens and scrolling.  Color and high resolution screens soon followed.  It was no longer necessary to have training to run a computer.  This increasing ease of use, as much as small size, portability and lowered cost is what drove the incredible explosion in computer sales.  When using a computer became easy and fun, sales took off.  …