When I wrote my first column on the electric car early in 2007 it was triggered by the announcement that GM was going to bring the Chevrolet Volt to market in 2010. As stated then, this was a significant event in that this was going to be the first plug-in car produced in significant volume and at an affordable price. GM was underscoring this by putting the Chevrolet name plate on the car. Plug-in cars are important as they have the potential for transportation with no heat and emission generating combustion. Significant volume is important because anything less will not lessen use of fossil fuels and resultant greenhouse emissions.

The reason that the Volt cannot be produced prior to 2010 is that there is no current battery technology that will work for the consumer auto market. The drive train battery must be able to last for 5,000 charges, not generate excessive heat, be able to function from -10 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit, and have a charge last for a minimum of 40-50 miles. Since the battery technology of choice for GM is lithium ion, the type of battery used in laptops, the challenge is clear to anyone experiencing the heat and short length of use of a laptop on battery power. Think of bundling a hundred such batteries to power a car. I have written two columns in this space and in my new book “The Shift Age” about the quest for the …

Well, it finally has happened. The price of gasoline has increased enough to cause pain to Americans so that they are changing behavior. The approach of $4 a gallon gasoline has, in the last month produced two positive results. First, after gasoline consumption increased 1.4% in March over the same month last year, it declined 0.6% in April. Second, ridership is up on mass transit systems around the country, in some cases by double digit amounts. The Minneapolis-St.Paul light rail line has increased ridership of 16% year to date over last year, and the Miami rail ridership is up 13% year in first quarter but an impressive increase of 28% in April

As regular readers of this column know, I have long predicted current oil prices. In April 2006 I predicted $125 a barrel price for February 2008, so I was off by two months. Also in that month I predicted $137 a barrel price for April 2009. I now think that might be low. In a recent column I predicted that the trading range for oil for the next 18 months would be an unlikely low of $95 and an elastic upper range of $135. I see many trends and market conditions that point to a trading range of $125-175 between now and the end of 2009. In other words, get used to today’s prices being the normal or the low normal.

America has 5% of the worlds’ population but consumes 25% of its energy. The numbers are even worse when …

In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains could operate in the highly populated corridors mentioned in the last post.  These are mostly on a north-south axis.  Utilization of these trains would alleviate congestion in the air and at airports.  Airlines, using ever more fuel efficient planes, could be the primary transcontinental and east-west transport.  Airports in cities served by high speed trains could have direct local trains connect to the central train station.

By 2015 a significant percentage of cars on the road can be plug-in hybrids or pure plug-in vehicles.  Both GM, with their Chevrolet Volt, and now Toyota have promised mass production of plug-ins by 2010-2011.  Currently Americans keep their cars for an average of 8 years.  Hybrids are already being sold.  This means that by 2015 50% or more of the cars on the road in the country can be either pure electric or hybrids.  The benefits of this are obvious:  much lower consumption …

High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider. A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline. Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

In Europe and Japan, high speed trains have been a way of life for decades. Comfortable, fast, environmentally sound and connecting the central city centers, high speed trains have become the backbone of convenient transportation. …