The current financial crisis is part of a larger realignment going on in the world.  There is a new Age that is beginning and with it comes a new restructuring of many facets of human life.  We are now entering the Shift Age, which is the global stage of human evolution.  This means that many aspects of humanity, certainly economics are being reorganized from the way they were during the Information Age and the earlier Industrial Age.

All year, in this column and in speeches given around the country, I have stated that the economic downturn we are going through must be looked at from a new perspective.  The ‘is it a recession or not’ and ‘is it a bear stock market or not’ is a far too narrow focus for insightful discussion.  There is something much larger that we are beginning to move through.

We are beginning to move into a new global reorganization of human society.  We have known for close to a decade that we are moving into a global economy.  However, the government, its regulatory branches, the mandated subsidies and tariffs that exist are all legacies of the 20^th century economic model of the nation state and what is going on is the first fundamental reorganization of this new century.  That reorganization is called the Flow to Global.  [Those of you who have read "The Shift Age" are familiar with this dynamic].

As mentioned in the last column, whenever a new age begins, the filters and the metrics of …

GM, Ford and Chrysler represent to a large degree the Industrial Age legacy of manufacturing in the U.S. “What was good for General Motors was good for the United States” was, for decades in the 20^th century a very true statement. The manufacturing might of America post WWII was an economic miracle and the apotheosis of the Industrial Age. Supported by the explosive growth of television and the American advertising business, the consumer market of wondrous new goods exploded. The Big Three auto companies rode this wave to unprecedented success.

Every year, there were the exciting new model introductions of all the auto makes in the Fall. Families became conditioned to buying new cars every few years just to keep up with the styling – and their neighbors.. Planned obsolescence was part of the business plan of the U.S. auto industry. The oil embargo of 1973-74 was a major hiccup and it provided a market opportunity for Japanese auto makers to enter the market with small cars that provided higher MPG than those provided by the Big Three. Once the price of oil collapsed after the Iranian revolution the next two decades of cheap oil allowed the Big Three to manufacture ever bigger SUVs and trucks which they sold the American public with their powerful marketing efforts.

The problem was that the leadership of the Big Three never adjusted to the post-9/11 world. Oil has increased in price by 1400% since 1998 and …

This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008.  The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year.  In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end. 

We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age.  The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age.  This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.

General Trends and Dynamics

1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering its’ global stage of evolution.  Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary.  The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic.  This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on.  It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right.  Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..

2. The Flow to Individual …

A recent column discussed the historical context for the emergence of intellectual property as the new and most important valuation of a company.  While this point of view is becoming more main stream every day the current problem is that there is no liquid market that can help determine actual valuations. Corporations and individuals can easily monetize their real estate holdings, their heavy and office equipment and just about any hard asset they have.  As stated in the prior column, 80% of the value of the S&P 500 companies is their Intellectual Property, or IP.  There are all kinds of markets to monetize the remaining 20%of a company’s assets, but what about the IP?   Last week I was witness to the beginning of the answer to this question.  If you believe, as I do, that IP is becoming the dominant asset in commerce in this new century, then last week’s activities in Chicago will be looked upon as significant.  The company mentioned in the earlier column, Ocean Tomo, had two days of meetings for IP specialists from around the world.  I attended two events that were of great interest and suggest the coming future of the IP marketplace.