“While in many areas it might be difficult to see into the future, in the area of technology the future can be readily seen.  The speed of technological invention and innovation moves so quickly that we have barely assimilated a recent breakthrough when another shows up to knock us back on our heels again.  While these innovations do provide a glimpse of our future, they can be disorienting in that they show us that the Present that we are struggling to accept and assimilate will soon be outdated.”

Cloud computing is the name given to the rapidly growing movement of software and storage onto the web. Rather than having all of ones’ software, documents, pictures and email files stashed on the hard drive of a desk top or notebook computer, it will soon be possible to have all of ones digital life reside on a secure place on the web.  While on-line back-up has been around for a while, the breakthrough for cloud computing is that the software one uses will be on the web, not in the computer.  This is the high level battleground between the decades’ old PC model of Microsoft and the more recent Net-centric vision of Google.

Perhaps Bill Gate’s most famous quote is his founding vision for Microsoft:  “A PC on every desktop”.  The manifestation of that vision is the world domination of the Microsoft Empire.  Whether one likes Microsoft or not, this manifested vision helped ...]]> To quote from one of the four prior posts with this title:

“While in many areas it might be difficult to see into the future, in the area of technology the future can be readily seen.  The speed of technological invention and innovation moves so quickly that we have barely assimilated a recent breakthrough when another shows up to knock us back on our heels again.  While these innovations do provide a glimpse of our future, they can be disorienting in that they show us that the Present that we are struggling to accept and assimilate will soon be outdated.”

Cloud computing is the name given to the rapidly growing movement of software and storage onto the web. Rather than having all of ones’ software, documents, pictures and email files stashed on the hard drive of a desk top or notebook computer, it will soon be possible to have all of ones digital life reside on a secure place on the web.  While on-line back-up has been around for a while, the breakthrough for cloud computing is that the software one uses will be on the web, not in the computer.  This is the high level battleground between the decades’ old PC model of Microsoft and the more recent Net-centric vision of Google.

Perhaps Bill Gate’s most famous quote is his founding vision for Microsoft:  “A PC on every desktop”.  The manifestation of that vision is the world domination of the Microsoft Empire.  Whether one likes Microsoft or not, this manifested vision helped to fuel one of the great technological transformations in history.  There is more computing power in my  condo building than NASA had available to support the initial trip to the moon and my laptop has more computing power than was on the spacecraft.  There were more computers sold in the world last year than existed on the entire planet in 1981 when the PC was launched.

Of course the Internet has altered that vision.  Many people now spend more time on the Internet than they do on the contents of their hard drive.  First there was the dissemination of computers to desks, then they got connected by the Net and now the connectedness is becoming more important than what is on the computer.  The next step is that the computer just becomes a connecting device.  Exponentially increasing bandwidth and traffic on the Internet backbone combined with rapidly expanding wireless access and expanding wireless bandwidth has now prepared us for the next step in mobile computing.

All that will be needed for a mobile computing device will be a keyboard, a screen, as ISB port and wireless connectivity.  If one wants to download a file from the Net, then a flash drive with one or more gigabytes of storage can be plugged into the device.  The weight can be less than a pound, the power needs will drop dramatically so the image of road warriors seeking power outlets at airports, or leaning into the weight of their computer bags will become a thing of the past.  Taking it a step further, perhaps all one will need is a lightweight, collapsible keyboard as the screens on airplane seatbacks or flat screen panels every where will have connectivity to the Net.  No longer will there be a fear of losing a laptop or of a computer crash.  The hardware problems of computing will dramatically lessen.

The business ramifications of Cloud computing will be astounding.  The entire economic models of the software business will change.  The entire economic model of the hardware business will change.  Shareware, freeware and connectivity will rule the day.  There will be merging of the hardware, software and connectivity businesses.  In this world it is easy to see Google producing a “Cloudbook” device or Microsoft renting rather than selling its’ Net based software.

Cloud computing will certainly not replace the existing landscape of computing, but it will alter it.  Whenever there is a paradigm shift in some market or area it always alters the usage patterns, protocols and economics of that space. We are moving toward the science fiction visions of William Gibson and Neal Stephenson where people “jack-in” to the Cyberspace parallel reality.

Connectivity

We are rapidly moving to total connectedness. Whether you are in the office, in the home, on the road, or anywhere in the world you can be connected to information, data and billions of people.    Bill Gates spoke of the fact that the home is soon going to be completely connected.  Computers, televisions, phones, everything in the home will be connected.  Ed Zander, Chairman of Motorola spoke about the home as being a hub of “seamless technology” and that mobile devices provide “seamless mobility” wherever we are in the world.  Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, CEO of Nokia speaks of “a world where everyone can be connected” and of “mobility, interconnectivity, community and convenience” 

Compare how much more connected you are now than you were 10 years ago. That is how much more you will be connected in 3-5 years than you are today.  How we use that connectivity is up to us and is the human variable in the equation.  Technology is providing us with connectivity that twenty years ago was only imagined in science fiction and in the minds of a few visionary futurists.

Availability

We are moving toward a world where practically every type of ...]]> This week at the Consumer Electronics Show there are hundreds of companies touting new gadgets that are “revolutionary” “innovative” “at the cutting edge” and “totally cool”.  I will leave the descriptions of all these to the mainstream media as they already excessively cover this convention.  Instead I will give you some view on the larger trends that are clear.

Connectivity

We are rapidly moving to total connectedness. Whether you are in the office, in the home, on the road, or anywhere in the world you can be connected to information, data and billions of people.    Bill Gates spoke of the fact that the home is soon going to be completely connected.  Computers, televisions, phones, everything in the home will be connected.  Ed Zander, Chairman of Motorola spoke about the home as being a hub of “seamless technology” and that mobile devices provide “seamless mobility” wherever we are in the world.  Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, CEO of Nokia speaks of “a world where everyone can be connected” and of “mobility, interconnectivity, community and convenience” 

Compare how much more connected you are now than you were 10 years ago. That is how much more you will be connected in 3-5 years than you are today.  How we use that connectivity is up to us and is the human variable in the equation.  Technology is providing us with connectivity that twenty years ago was only imagined in science fiction and in the minds of a few visionary futurists.

Availability

We are moving toward a world where practically every type of information and entertainment will be available to us not just when we want it, but where we want it.  First there was time shifting, now add to that place shifting and device shifting.  Whenever, wherever and on what device is now or will soon be up to us.

Multi-functionality

It used to be that phones were for making calls, television sets for watching TV programs, music players for listening to music, cameras for taking pictures, GPS devices for finding out where we are or how to get to where we are going and PDA for our schedules and contact information.  There are now a multitude of devices that provide you with the capability to do all of these activities on a single device.  It used to be an axiom that ‘combo’ devices compromised on everything.  That is no longer the case.  We are rapidly moving to phones that play music as well as music players, and handheld computers that can replace laptops and televisions.  We will have an incredible amount of choice as to what devices and how many we own and carry with us.

Style and Interface

This is the next step after providing functionality.  Many companies are now focusing on style and feel.  How cool does a device look?  How easy is it to use?  How ‘low-tech’ can it be made, so that ‘anyone’ can use them?  This is the new point of differentiation in electronics today, along with price.

Price

Price always declines as technologies develop and gain acceptance.  This seems to be accelerating across the board.  Remember when flat screen televisions cost more than $5,000 or a desk top computer more than $2,000 or a smart phone more than $500?  Those days are long gone.

Choice

The consumer is in control.  We now have practically unlimited choice in almost any area of electronics.  If there is any area where that is not true, wait, it will be.  Congratulations, you have the power.

Embrace the future, it is here, and it is yours.

The Transition into the Information Age

When Gates founded Microsoft with Paul Allen in 1975, the United States was just starting to make the transition from being an Industrial Age country to being an Information Age country.  The personal computer, communications satellites, cable television and the Internet were all just beginning.  Alvin Toffler, in his landmark   1970 book, “Future Shock”, called this coming the “Third Wave”; following the First Agricultural Wave  and the Second Industrial Wave of  human history.  The values and structures in 1975 were all Industrial Age.  Thirty years later, in 2005, the structures and values in the United States, and in all developed countries around the world, was Information Age. So, the “Gates Era” coincided with the transformation of the world from Industrial Age, Second Wave, to Information Age, Third Wave.  When history books are written about this time Gates will be one of several prominent people who will be linked to, and therefore given some credit for enabling this fundamental historical shift.

I see it this ...]]> The announcement last week that Bill Gates would, over the next two years, relinquish day to day oversight of Microsoft made me think about history and the future.  The first thought of course was that in some way it was the end of an era. The second thought was, well, what era, where does that fit historically, and how will it be described in history books in the future? The third thought was that there might be some precedent to Gates’ decision worth investigating.

The Transition into the Information Age

When Gates founded Microsoft with Paul Allen in 1975, the United States was just starting to make the transition from being an Industrial Age country to being an Information Age country.  The personal computer, communications satellites, cable television and the Internet were all just beginning.  Alvin Toffler, in his landmark   1970 book, “Future Shock”, called this coming the “Third Wave”; following the First Agricultural Wave  and the Second Industrial Wave of  human history.  The values and structures in 1975 were all Industrial Age.  Thirty years later, in 2005, the structures and values in the United States, and in all developed countries around the world, was Information Age. So, the “Gates Era” coincided with the transformation of the world from Industrial Age, Second Wave, to Information Age, Third Wave.  When history books are written about this time Gates will be one of several prominent people who will be linked to, and therefore given some credit for enabling this fundamental historical shift.

I see it this way because I am currently writing a book about the future and I also give speeches on the subject.  One of the speeches I give is called “The Threshold Decades 1985-2005:  When the World Changed”.  I see the last twenty years as a time when society reorganized itself.  There were a lot of dynamics at play, but one of the most significant was the personal computer and the fact that Gate’s vision of a personal computer on every desktop was essentially realized.  It was an idea whose time had come, but Gates and his total focus on making it a reality was a key ingredient.  There are now almost 250 million PCs in the United States, which represents about 25% of the PCs in the world.  Microsoft has a presence on the vast majority of them.  Sure, people can complain about the Microsoft products, but the larger reality is that Gate’s company was and is one the most significant influencers in the growth of computers worldwide.  That is historically significant.

Bill Gates and Andrew Carnegie

Almost a century before Bill Gates helped create the age of the PC; Andrew Carnegie helped create the age of steel.  Before Gates, and of course Steve Jobs, there was no PC age.  Likewise, before Andrew Carnegie, life was basically agricultural and there was no steel age.  Andrew Carnegie was one of the dominant creators of the US steel industry in the last part of the 1800s which helped transform the US and the world.  Bill Gates was one of the dominant creators of the PC industry in the last part of the 1900s which helped transform the US and the world.  During each of their lifetimes, Carnegie and Gates were called the “Worlds Richest Man”.  Carnegie sold his company to J.P. Morgan, who used it as the cornerstone for U.S. Steel.  Carnegie then took his money and set up the Carnegie Foundation, one of the early foundations created by the robber barons of that age to fund good works in society.    Gates has already set up the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which in total endowment dwarfs those foundations set up by Carnegie, Ford, Rockefeller and the other robber barons of a century ago.

Anyone reading these words that have ever checked a book out of a public library owes a debt of gratitude to Andrew Carnegie as he made libraries a focus of his giving.  He wanted to provide free books to a reading public.  Many people in the United States that have used a computer in a public library owe a debt of gratitude to Bill Gates, as he provided computers and computer software for free to a computing public.

Gates is stepping down from day to day executive oversight of Microsoft to focus the majority of his time on his foundation.  Bill and Melinda Gates, along with Bono, were the Time Magazine People of the Year for 2005 because of the work they do to help the poor and sick in Africa.  The three of them, and the organizations and causes they lead are doing more to put an end to human suffering in that part of the world that anyone else.  Bill Gates has given tens of billions of dollars, the bulk of his Microsoft fortune to his foundation.  He is now going to give the bulk of his time to it.  Pick your superlative, any one will work.  A commitment of money and time to the goal of ending human suffering is as noble as it gets.

Carnegie showed that robber barons could be compassionate.  Gates is showing that geeks can be even more so.  Historians in the future will most certainly write about Bill Gates as one of the prime movers of the computer age.  I only hope that it might pale to what they write about his success in ending disease and human suffering.  That is a future I want to be part of. Bill thanks for the first act.  Make the second one even better.