January 9th, 2008
This is the second year for Evolution Shift to present you with a general forecast and somewhat more specific predictions for 2008. The forecast for 2007 is here for those wanting to check out the accuracy of what was predicted for last year. In addition I made some transitional 2007/2008 predictions last week, tying up the year end.
We are now leaving the Information Age and entering the Shift Age. The transition between these two ages began in 2006, gathered speed last year and will be even more fully felt in 2008 and 2009 when it will generally be understood that we in fact are living in a new age. This is the underlying dynamic that is shaping most of the general trends and some of the specific trends and predictions below.
General Trends and Dynamics
1. The Flow to Global will continue to accelerate. Humanity is now entering itsâ€™ global stage of evolution. Ultimately the only boundary will be planetary. The global economy is the first stage of this dynamic. This flow is the underlying force of many of the changes, disruptions and reorganizations that are going on. It is also why many of the traditional terms, measurements and definitions used for the past few decades no longer seem quite right. Barometers and cause and effect relationships of the recent past seem less valid year by year. We are no longer in the 20th century or the Information Age, therefore new terminology and reference points are needed..
2. The Flow to Individual …
November 30th, 2007
Amazonâ€™s introduction of the Kindle electronic book reader feels momentous. It is the first time that the long anticipated, much debated future of the â€˜ebookâ€™ feels ready to begin in a meaningful way.
During the past ten years there has been great debate about the ebook. Generally speaking there have been three points of view on the subject. The first one comes from the true believers that the ebook is inevitable and that it would ultimately gain a noticeable and then sizable market share of publishing. The second viewpoint is that while there would be a market for the ebook it would never really capture more than a marginal market share. The third viewpoint was that the physical experience of reading an actual book is such an integral part of the reading experience that the ebook would never really catch on. I am one of those that hold the first point of view.
In a column here last summer I wrote:
â€œe-books will ultimately gain significant market share. This will occur when there is an â€˜iPod momentâ€™; when a device comes out that is low priced, wonderful to use and perceived to be cool or hip. Once this occurs there will be a rapid increase in the percentage of books sold digitally, probably leveling off around 40 â€” 50% by 2025. Impulsive buys, such as at airport book stores will become â€œpurchase, plug-in and downloadâ€™. While those of us who have grown up with the wonderful tactile experience of â€˜curling up with …