As a futurist, I think, speak, and write about the future. A large part of what I do is to make forecasts on the future and what might happen. This forecasting is based upon analysis of trends and the underlying forces and flows that create and shape these trends. The more specific the forecast or the further out the forecast, the higher probability of error in the forecast. When I look 5, 10 or 20 years out I look at the macro forces at play in the world to predict the overarching changes and reorganizations that will occur. Here in this column the future focus is 3 months to 3 years and is much more specific and news related.

In both the long term and short term forecasting, the value provided to the marketplace and to humanity is two fold. First it is to act as a catalyst to get people to think about the future and to do so with intelligence. Second, it is to deliver as high degree of accuracy as possible so that I can provide value to my readers, audiences and clients.

To the first point may I direct you to the video commentaries I have on my YouTube channel. Please click on the large image at the top first. Viewing this video will help you decide which of the three general buckets you are in as it pertains to viewing the future. The videos on …

The two trend lines are the decline in gasoline consumption and the decline in miles driven.  These two are obviously connected and are obviously caused by the price of oil.  For the first time in close to 30 years, we have something to be proud of when it comes to our driving behavior.

Two different reports last week documented this profound turnaround.  A report by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates documented that, should recent behavior continue, gasoline demand will likely decline in 2008 for the first time in 17 years. Over the course of the last 25 years gasoline demand in the U.S. increased by 40% due to the popularity of SUVs, minivans, increasing number of vehicles per household and the ever lengthening distance of driving commutes. All subsidized by cheap oil. This growth slowed significantly in the last two years and then in the first quarter of 2008, actually dropped 1.3 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007.  While this percentage drop is slight, this observer believes it will be a historic turning point that, in just a few years will be seen as the turning point from the constant increase in gasoline consumption to the constant decrease that will the reality from now on.

The second report, from the Transportation Department stated that in the month of April, Americans drove 1.8 percent fewer miles that the same month a year ago.  This was the sixth consecutive month of driving decline.  This trend, also a reaction to the price of …

Two years ago in this blog, I wrote a futuristic column from April 20, 2009. The title of the column was “Remember When Gas Was Cheap?” At that time I predicted that the price of oil in early 2008 would reach $125 and that in April 2009 it would be $137.
In January of 2007 I was invited on the “First Business” syndicated business program to discuss the price of oil for the remainder of the year. At the time the price was $53 a barrel. I basically told the flabbergasted reporter that I thought the price of oil would most definitely cross $80 a barrel and would approach, but not reach the $100 a barrel price. The counterbalancing view was some “oil industry expert” who said the price range for the year would be $50-70 a barrel. Of course we know what happened.

Last fall I wrote a column predicting that the trading range for the price of oil would be $80-125 for the next two years. I now want to revise that forecast. When I made that prediction, the price has recently crossed $80, charting new territory. While obviously not surprised, I did let all the disbelief I had been subjected to in my predictions to give me a sense of caution. Since $80 was the new high, and I was saying that it would be the price floor for the foreseeable future I thought it would be a correct floor. I did say in that column that …

[Note to readers:  this column was written a number of weeks ago, but was in holding as I wrote columns about some more immediate travel related subjects.  With the turmoil in Tibet this past week, it is clearly a topic in the news.  I have updated the prior column to include the recent upheavals.] 

When countries or cities submit bids for hosting the Olympics it is usually done with a great sense of pride and boosterism.  The governments and economic vested interests all look to hosting the Olympics as a way to showcase their “world class city”.  In the case of the upcoming Olympics in Beijing, it is clearly the goal of the Chinese government to make clear to the world that the formerly communist country is now a major player on the world stage.  The world has recognized and accepted the growing economic might of the country.  The Chinese government wants to make a further impression on the world that they are culturally and architecturally a world class nation.

I have written here about what has occurred in China over the last 20 years.  Basically they have collapsed the 200 year timeline of the U.S. to move from an agricultural economy to an information economy to a period one tenth in length.  This has never been done on such a magnitude, and as a result there have been many problems, as written here.  I think that this will be the reason that the 2008 Beijing Olympics may turn out …