As a futurist I often feel as though I live in a déjà- vu world. I write about something and then months or years later it occurs or becomes something that is on the minds of a lot of people.

This is the first of what may be occasional columns from years past written here that, for one reason or another, are relevant to what is currently going on in the world.  As a futurist I try to write “ahead of the curve” or to take a “future look at today”. Sometimes old columns resonate today.  This is one of them.

The recent – and ongoing – flap about privacy settings on Facebook is just the latest incident that makes us think about our privacy in this age of connectivity and social media.  When we are confronted with this issue, predictably we seem to recoil and speak about invasion of privacy.  We get upset that our personal data is or could be shared with people we don’t know.

Facebook, with  almost too numerous to count privacy settings, is clearly a conflicted company when it comes to privacy.  It has a culture, purpose and business model that is completely about sharing, or sharing completely.  A complete surrender of privacy is the ideal.

To focus on Facebook and other social media as a place of concern for privacy is myopic.  We all long ago gave up privacy for the sake of convenience.  In the larger scheme of things we have willingly, if not fully consciously, ...]]>

As a futurist I often feel as though I live in a déjà- vu world. I write about something and then months or years later it occurs or becomes something that is on the minds of a lot of people.

This is the first of what may be occasional columns from years past written here that, for one reason or another, are relevant to what is currently going on in the world.  As a futurist I try to write “ahead of the curve” or to take a “future look at today”. Sometimes old columns resonate today.  This is one of them.

The recent – and ongoing – flap about privacy settings on Facebook is just the latest incident that makes us think about our privacy in this age of connectivity and social media.  When we are confronted with this issue, predictably we seem to recoil and speak about invasion of privacy.  We get upset that our personal data is or could be shared with people we don’t know.

Facebook, with  almost too numerous to count privacy settings, is clearly a conflicted company when it comes to privacy.  It has a culture, purpose and business model that is completely about sharing, or sharing completely.  A complete surrender of privacy is the ideal.

To focus on Facebook and other social media as a place of concern for privacy is myopic.  We all long ago gave up privacy for the sake of convenience.  In the larger scheme of things we have willingly, if not fully consciously, given up our privacy over the past few decades.

The recent privacy flap at Facebook has caused many people in audiences I address to ask about privacy as it relates to social media.  I end up referring to a column I wrote almost four years ago and simply say:  “As technology advances, privacy declines”

Below is that slightly tongue in cheek column, written in 2006.

Technology Advances, Privacy Declines

One of the trade offs we seem to have accepted during the past 20 years is a loss of privacy.  None of us say we approve of that, but we have embraced technology in such a way that a diminished sense of privacy has occurred.  The portability of storage and computing, as discussed on this blog in earlier posts, is a major reason.  The easier small storage devices and laptops are to carry, the higher probability of theft.

It was revealed the other day that a laptop, with personnel records for 382,000 Boeing employees was stolen.  This was the third time in 13 months that this has occurred with Boeing.  Of course Boeing is not the only company where this has happened.  Laptops are portable and easy to put into a briefcase or bag.  Someone goes up for another cup of coffee at Starbucks or leaves their desk to go to the bathroom and in a few seconds the laptop and all the data on it is stolen.  We all enjoy the fact that we can have a computer with us wherever we are.  The freedom to work wherever and whenever we want is a very empowering thing, something that didn’t exist 20 years ago.

In the 1960s and 1970s, computing equaled mainframe computing.  Companies and universities all had these large machines that were in air conditioned, controlled access environments.  Access was highly monitored, records were kept for all activities and people even dressed in white coats.  It looked and felt like the religion of the main frame.  Yes, you could probably steal a computer tape, but you would have to have another main frame computer to access the data.  This is so different than today when every desk has a PC and laptops are everywhere.

The other key development of course is the Internet and the fact that all these computers are connecting to it.  This connectivity allows remote access from practically anywhere.  Firewalls become challenges to hackers.  Identities stolen from computers via the Internet can be almost instantaneously monetized.  It seems like every day there is an article or story in the media about identity theft.  So our highly connected lives open us up to risk.  This also opens us up to tracking.  What web sites we visit on the Internet.  What we buy.  Who we communicate with and what we say.  Of course, now with massive use of wireless we have grown accustomed to using public wireless hot spots for our most personal communications and transactions.  We learned a decade ago that cell phones were less secure than land lines, yet that certainly didn’t compel us to stop using them.  In fact, cell phone usage has exploded.

Entire new security businesses such as consumer virus protection software, and security gurus have emerged to help companies protect their data and confidential information.  We all want to be connected and protected at the same time.  If you truly want to keep your communications private, think back on all the mafia movies you have seen.  To avoid being bugged at home or at the office, or being wiretapped via the phone, mafia dons would meet on a park bench or take a walk on a construction site to discuss ‘business’.  Once you move to most electronic communications you increase the risk of intrusion, observation or theft.  Hey, what’s so bad about sitting on a park bench on a sunny day?

I have written extensively about humanity being in transition between the Information Age and the Shift Age.  Those who have heard me speak or read my writings come to understand and accept this.  That said, this is a higher concept than the simple reality of the calendar.  No one can dispute the numerical fact that we are 10% into the 21^st Century, unless you want to debate whether the scientific concept of linear time verses the older concepts of cyclical time or chaotic time.

Once you start to look at the world, its’ institutions and both business categories and specific companies, through this 20^th versus 21^st century filter, things become clearer.

Here are some examples:

I could go on for pages, but the lists above should both provide clarity and food for thought.

A very simple way to look at the world is through this filter as it will bring clarity as to what will last and what won’t, to what will be significant and what will not be.  It is clear that companies created in the 20^th century that ...]]> In the past year I have found that framing conversations about certain topics with the context of being of the 20^th century or of the 21^st century to be clarifying for most people.

I have written extensively about humanity being in transition between the Information Age and the Shift Age.  Those who have heard me speak or read my writings come to understand and accept this.  That said, this is a higher concept than the simple reality of the calendar.  No one can dispute the numerical fact that we are 10% into the 21^st Century, unless you want to debate whether the scientific concept of linear time verses the older concepts of cyclical time or chaotic time.

Once you start to look at the world, its’ institutions and both business categories and specific companies, through this 20^th versus 21^st century filter, things become clearer.

Here are some examples:

I could go on for pages, but the lists above should both provide clarity and food for thought.

A very simple way to look at the world is through this filter as it will bring clarity as to what will last and what won’t, to what will be significant and what will not be.  It is clear that companies created in the 20^th century that do not transform themselves are at high risk.  While going from good to great, searching for excellence or re-engineering corporations were all good for 20^th century businesses, only transformation and on-going re-invention will keep companies competitive in these next ten years.

People, societies and businesses can often get stuck in a context largely created in the past.  The ‘as long as it seems to be working, let’s keep doing it’ mindset hasn’t served large 20^th century industries or companies very well these past few years.

On 01/01/10  I suggested  here that the 2010-2020 decade would be the Transformation Decade.  The definition of transformation is “a change in nature, shape, form or character of something”.  Any company, any business that does not do this in the next ten years will likely not be around in 2020.  This of course is particularly true of anything created in the 20^th century.

Start to look at the world through this filter of is something 20^th century or 21^st century and you will start to suddenly see the future separating itself from the past as the past quickly falls away.

Vermont is one of twelve states where the state government is going to court to gain the right to institute lower emission standards.  Most of these initiatives are patterned after a policy already signed in California. This points to the continued lack of any leadership whatsoever regarding energy in Washington D.C.  The states are where the leadership is to do what is necessary regarding energy.  Neither the Federal government nor the auto makers are leading the way toward lower emissions in any meaningful way.  This case precedent will most likely affect the court battles in the other states.  [Note: since the Vermont decision, there was a court decision in California where a suit blaming automakers over emissions and requesting damages was thrown out.  In that case, the judge ruled that it was not a proper task for the courts to rule in this area, therefore sending it back to the other two branches of state government to institute laws regarding damages due to greenhouse gas emissions].

The long term trend in oil prices is up.  In early 2006 and again at the beginning of 2007 I predicted that ...]]> There were three reported news stories last week that taken together point to clear trend lines.  In a court ruling, the state of Vermont won the right to set auto emissions and MPG standards that are stricter than those of the Federal government.  The dollar reached an all time low against the Euro and oil crossed over the $80 a barrel price barrier.  

Vermont is one of twelve states where the state government is going to court to gain the right to institute lower emission standards.  Most of these initiatives are patterned after a policy already signed in California. This points to the continued lack of any leadership whatsoever regarding energy in Washington D.C.  The states are where the leadership is to do what is necessary regarding energy.  Neither the Federal government nor the auto makers are leading the way toward lower emissions in any meaningful way.  This case precedent will most likely affect the court battles in the other states.  [Note: since the Vermont decision, there was a court decision in California where a suit blaming automakers over emissions and requesting damages was thrown out.  In that case, the judge ruled that it was not a proper task for the courts to rule in this area, therefore sending it back to the other two branches of state government to institute laws regarding damages due to greenhouse gas emissions].

The long term trend in oil prices is up.  In early 2006 and again at the beginning of 2007 I predicted that oil would continue to climb in price and could in fact approach or exceed $100 a barrel in the not too distant future.  $80 a barrel oil is just the latest marker or sign post on this path.  No surprise there at all.    We are going through peak oil, global demand is increasing and the price will continue to rise.

The dollar reaching a new low against the Euro is just the latest new low and part of a trend that has been going on for the past 5 years.  Now that the Fed has lowered the interest rate, the dollar will drift even lower.  Since oil is priced against the dollar, that means that oil will be relatively more expensive in the U.S. than in Europe.  

So let’s think about this.  The dollar is losing value when measured against other currencies, the price of oil is and will continue to rise, and it is the state governments that are showing leadership in energy policy since the federal government cannot seem to do so.  We are entering a perfect storm of non-action and stupidity and the consequences will be painful for the U.S. 

Regular readers of this column know that I have been very supportive of the auto companies’ efforts to introduce cars with lower emissions, particularly GM and their commitment to their electric car the Chevrolet Volt.  Saturn is doing a great job of expanding their hybrid offerings.  These efforts and those by other companies, notably Toyota and Honda are addressing the clear need for more fuel efficient cars.  The problem the companies have is that it takes time to bring new technology to market.  They are, in effect saying that they want to be green sometime in the future but don’t make us do so before we are ready.  What they need to do is anything they can to lower emissions and perhaps offer carbon offset credits until the new battery technology for cars is in place.  If they want to continue to make large profits on SUVs and trucks, then provide an offset for them.  

The companies are not the only ones that need to change their ways, it is time for the consumer to end their love affair with monstrous vehicles they don’t need to drive.  If we refuse to buy gas guzzlers, it will affect the market.  If you buy one then buy a carbon offset from a company like Planktos so that you have a carbon neutral footprint.

We need leadership in Washington D.C. that will see the near future landscape of ever higher priced oil that we need to import and pay for with ever cheaper dollars.  The citizens are speaking through their state governments.  Who is listening?

2006 will be looked back upon as the year where a tipping point of sorts was reached regarding alternative energy and global warming.  Twenty years ago, global warming was a high level concept that only committed environmentalists understood.  Now, in 2006 it has become a personal experience for us all.  Record heat waves in the summer?  Global warming. Warm weather in December?  Global warming.  At year end the term is even used to discuss the stock market and what companies and industries will benefit from global warming.  Sure Al Gore helped us develop this perception with “An Inconvenient Truth”, but we have all felt, and many of us have seen the effects of this warming.

This sense of global warming combined with record high gasoline prices and the now widely understood connection between our addiction to oil and the funding of terrorism has really helped to bring about the early tipping point in the US regarding alternative energy.  Daily and weekly news ...]]> This was a very interesting year from this futurist’s point of view.  It felt like a year of transition, of new beginnings and of breakthroughs.  New and clear trend lines were started in several areas that will continue next year and beyond.  Starting next week I will take a predictive look forward to 2007 and suggest trends and dynamics that will help shape the months and years ahead.  This post however will take a look back to point out developments that occurred as a preamble for the predictive look forward.

2006 will be looked back upon as the year where a tipping point of sorts was reached regarding alternative energy and global warming.  Twenty years ago, global warming was a high level concept that only committed environmentalists understood.  Now, in 2006 it has become a personal experience for us all.  Record heat waves in the summer?  Global warming. Warm weather in December?  Global warming.  At year end the term is even used to discuss the stock market and what companies and industries will benefit from global warming.  Sure Al Gore helped us develop this perception with “An Inconvenient Truth”, but we have all felt, and many of us have seen the effects of this warming.

This sense of global warming combined with record high gasoline prices and the now widely understood connection between our addiction to oil and the funding of terrorism has really helped to bring about the early tipping point in the US regarding alternative energy.  Daily and weekly news stories about wind power, solar power, electric cars, ethanol, and conservation all increased dramatically in 2006.  So many terms have now moved from the green movement to the mainstream that it does represent a shift in awareness that will only accelerate and will lead to innovation and changes in behavior in the years ahead.  For those of you new to this blog, you can read my comments and predictions on this here, and here, and here.

The Internet fueled power of disintermediation was certainly felt by many industries in 2006.  Clearly media and video transmission was changed forever with the fantastic popularity and influence of sites such as YouTube.  This not only changed the world of media but also the world of politics as everything politicians say and do can now be uploaded for the world to see.  It also further delivered the power of influence and creativity to the individual and away from the corporations.  This was discussed here and here.

Disintermediation also gained force in the real estate business as long held business practices and pricing were challenged.  This also started in the insurance business.  Think back on the disintermediating power of the Internet on the travel industry and stock brokerage during the past decade to get an idea of what might lie ahead for these and other industries.

Technological innovation continued in 2006.  Breakthroughs in speed, miniaturization, and connectivity all pointed the way to coming change in many areas of life.

The cultural phenomenon of coffee seemed to cross over into a critical mass in 2006.  Starbucks accelerated its store openings and cultural influence. McDonalds improved and promoted its new higher quality coffee.  Dunkin’ Donuts became a much more aggressive player.  All these places offered wireless connections to allow people to stay around getting jacked up on caffeine as they worked on their laptops.  This new ‘third place’ became even more entrenched in our social and work culture as an alternative to home or office.  Not surprisingly, there were many more stories about sleep deprivation and people working in an always on world of high speed digital connectivity and rapid change.

These are just a few of the major things that occurred and were covered in this blog in 2006.  This was the year that this blog actually came into existence.  I want to thank all of you that have become regular readers, and participants, of www.evolutionshift.com .  As the readership and influence of this blog has grown, I am extremely grateful to each and every reader.  Thank you.  2006 was the year to create a credible, respected blog that would provide people with “A Future Look at Today”. A number of you have made it a favorite and linked to us here.  Now that credibility and a loyal readership have been established, in the year ahead it is the goal to greatly grow and expand the readership here.  To that end, if you do enjoy this blog, please enthusiastically tell even one friend to check us out.  Thank you.  Happy New Year!