A 21st Century City – Part One
May 16th, 2010
In recent columns, here and here, I have written about how looking at the world through a lens of centuries can help to clarify what is in ascendancy and what is in decline. Is something 20th Century or is it 21st Century?
I recently spent five days in Dubai. Dubai is truly a 21st Century City. It is a city built for and in this century. It is based entirely on a vision of the future. As a futurist I look into and think about the future. I look at trends, patterns, dynamics and directional energies to see what lies ahead. It is clear that many large entities and certainly most cities do not really focus on the future let alone the long term. Most are preoccupied with current problems, the next quarter or the next year. This is not the case with Dubai.
50 years ago Dubai was a small town of thousands resting of a couple of sandy spits of land and now it is a sprawling city of 1.5 million. Due to the benevolent and visionary leadership of three sheiks over the last 60 years a forward thinking city has been created. What this vision has manifested is truly remarkable.
Many of you have heard of the huge debt issues that surfaced last fall in Dubai. This is true, with many building sites idle. This is no different that all the building sites, vacant blocks and endless numbers of dark McMansions littering the landscape here in the U.S.
What I see in the U.S. is a result of blind over optimism driven by greed, fueled by lending fraud that was detached from underlying realities. What I saw in Dubai was a long term cohesive development vision that has been temporarily whacked by the 2008-2010 Global Great Recession.
Whenever a vision is brought into being, by definition it is out in front, ahead of its time and therefore subject to more risk and possibly ridicule than more traditional efforts. This is why Dubai’s current problems have been magnified as it is a large vision, ahead of its’ time that has suffered a significant but temporary setback. As a Chicagoan I am familiar with Daniel Burnham and am convinced that the sheiks were either aware of, or are channeling Burnham’s underlying philosophy which was “Make no small plans!” Dubai is a large visionary plan, temporarily slowed.
In the past 15 years literally dozens of high rises and skyscrapers have been built. As an ardent fan of modern architecture, I was stunned by the beauty of many of these buildings. It is as though the openness of the canvas and vision prompted architectural firms to be creative and leading edge in a way not allowed elsewhere. To see this architectural beauty and mass on a desert landscape at the edge of the Arabian Gulf was both disorienting and intoxicating. The feeling was that of looking at an urban desert oasis for the 21st century.
For the past four years I have thought that as a futurist, one of the places in the world that held both the greatest appeal and where I might offer the highest value professionally as a futurist was the U.A.E. (United Arab Emirates). This is because it is one of the few countries in the world that seems to be looking out several decades to what it wants to be in 20,30 and 40 years. Again, though the leaders of many countries speak to the future of their countries they are looking toward the next election and long term visions tend to be platitudinous and vague.
There are seven emirates that comprise the U.A.E., and only one, Abu Dhabi that has significant long term oil reserves. Dubai has oil reserves that are expect to be largely depleted by 2015-20. The other five emirates have no oil at all. This reality has prompted the U.A.E. led by Dubai, though largely funded by Abu Dhabi to look ahead into this century to plan for a vibrant economy in a post petroleum world. It seems to be the place in the Arab world that is dynamically and intentionally looking beyond the vast economic wealth created off of oil.
The vision, which can be clearly seen in development, is to create a global financial center that is geopolitically significant and extremely geographically important as the gateway from West to East and North to South.
I was in Dubai to deliver two speeches so I interacted with a lot of people at both gatherings. I was frequently asked if this was my first visit to Dubai and if so what did I think.. After being asked this so often, I distilled the answer down to the simple truth: “As a futurist I feel at home in Dubai”
In the second column on Dubai, I will look at some of the leading edge dynamics the city has put in place that could serve as guidelines and examples of what urban centers around the world could do to reinvigorate themselves for the 21st Century.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:30 am
David,
Dubai is a place of the future all right, but for not the reasons you specified.
It is a place of the future where the few elite rich live cloistered lives and the world’s poor are imported as near slaves to serve them. The rich have developed a lifestyle where they need to import everything including the management of EVERYTHING to skilled foreigners. Not exactly a formula for success.
It is a place where religious extremism is only held at check by the bread and circuses provided by the elite…that is, until the oil runs out.
You are from Chicago? Look to Detroit to see the future of Dubai once the oil runs out. With no government largess, there will be tumbleweeds in the streets in no time. This is already happening even with oil revenue at very high historical levels. Imagine if it hadn’t shot up a few years ago.
This is an unbelievably naive entry.
Steve
May 17th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Steve-
Your points are valid. Please keep in mind that there has never been a great city in human history where the rich did not utilize the poor to build the infrastructure.
It is smarter to import management talent of the highest caliber than to use significantly less competent locals who do not have the experience. The imported talent are, for the most part, training the locals in a way that will allow the native residents of Dubai to attain a world class competency faster than most other countries that prize things other than competency.
Finally, Dubai is doing exactly what you criticize in anticipation of running out of oil. That is why they are moving so quickly. Name one other member of OPEC that is doing this?
Thank you for your comment. Only time will prove if I am naive.
David
May 17th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
David:
Steve is dead on. This is your optimism gone into overdrive. Naive was exactly the word that I was going to use because of the debt crisis in Dubai. Steve beat me to it. Congratulations to Steve.
I also believe that this 20th century versus 21st century stuff is way overdone and way oversimplified. I know you and I believe that you are more insightful than that. It may be that you find it a good marketing tool and that explanation I can accept, grudgingly.
There are many talk show hosts who are very, very smart but you cannot tell it at all unless they are interviewed by a smart interviewer, at least as smart as Charlie Rose.
Jonathan
May 17th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
I dream of a Dubai-like community were the wealthy are imported to fulfill their passionate dream to create green, healthy, smart and meaningful lifestyles among the least of us… the poor …the uneducated.
By starting from scratch in a location with no out-dated infrastructure to replace….. with low or no tax burdens and with no over priced real estate…. technology companies could affordably establish a new sustainable green city. A prototype of a major social enterprise.
Built by real people, this city would have a heart and a soul. It would have authenticity like New Orleans, because it would call upon the artist abilities of residents…. not just the vision of architects and urban designers.
Idealistic? Dreaming? Yes, but isn’t dreaming one of a futurists best tools?
Meaningful lives is one of the most important goals sought after in this new age of shift.
The poor could immediately raise themselves from poverty as the workforce and become contributing members of this society…. proud citizens with dignity. Individuals reaching for greatness.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:42 am
Jonathan-
I appreciate your comments toward me, but wake up! The “debt crisis” in Dubai! Uh, take a drive around any suburb in Chicago and look at all the forclosures, dark McMansions, and oh yes, what was that company called? Lehman brothers. On a per capita basis Greece and Portugal and the UK and Spain have far greater debt issues than Dubai.
Another question: have you been to Dubai?
As for the 20th/20st century issue, I speak to audiences several times a week and it does help them to understand that “too big to fail” might just be “outdated business from the last century that is done”. GM/Tesla makes that point. What is polluting the Gulf is a 20th century energy source; time for a 21st century energy source.
How about Republican party and Democratic party. Both feel so 20th century to me, holding onto legacies that block them from facing the true issues of the 21st century.
End of rant.
David
May 18th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
Dubai offers a model of inspiring architecture but leaves a big hole in it’s sole.
Authenticity of culture is key to place. Leave out diversity of people, class, social status and individual contributions ….what do you have?
New Orleans gets my vote as the model city for the future…. that is unless BP kills all the wonderful seafood
May 21st, 2010 at 12:55 am
David:
David, I understand the real estate market. For three to five years, the three most important words in real estate were: fraud, fraud, fraud.
The financial problems in Europe are PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.
No opportunity for international travel. From what you wrote, it seems that it was important for the people you met in Dubai to sell you their vision. Reading what you wrote, they succeeded.
The two party system is not great but it seems to me that it provides some more stability than all of the fragile coalitions in other countries with larger numbers of political parties. Personally, I try to stay in the middle of the road politically. It is the hardest place to be in the United States.
As far as 20th century energy source versus 21st century energy source, that’s a “duh” to me. I look back at the 1973 and 1979 oil shortages and view them as harbingers of things to come. Except for the family minivan (better gas mileage than an SUV), it is the only vehicle with more than four cylinders that I have acquired since 1980.
By the way, do not be too enamored of electric vehicles. The United States has significantly under-invested in mining for rare earths (lanthanides) that are important for their technology. At this time, the global supply comes from China, an interesting challenge.
As long as Uncle Sam wants to significantly subsidize electric vehicles and other vehicles that do not directly use hydrocarbons ($7500 for EV, Volt), the car makers will build them because there is good margin for the manufacturer and the dealer.
I would like to be optimistic about all of these things but I have already seen too much information that makes me cautious, skeptical and, occasionally, even cynical.
Jonathan
May 27th, 2010 at 4:50 am
Dear David,
I was present at one of your talks in Dubai. I found it quite interesting and insightful. Now my question is you see Dubai as a futuristic country right? Do you not feel that they have the urge to have the best of everything i.e. they must have the biggest, the longest, the tallest etc of everything? Look what a disaster Dubai World turned out to be. Don’t you feel they are overdoing it especially when they up to their neck in debt? Also they don’t ever fully complete any of their projects. You will always see roads being dug up and buildings with 100’s of cranes around them. Also the pollution there is quite high. Do you feel Dubai could still be a 21st century country?
Cheers
Ash
May 27th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Ash-
No question there are problems there. In the past week they have taken huge steps to solve the Dubai World debt situation. They are setting up a more centralized agency to oversee such debt in the future. If the Sheik and those in power have been humbled by what happened, and they stop building until natural growth catches up with all the development growth things will be okay.
Of course there are problems in Dubai that are similar to elsewhere. The key difference is that the view is long term. In most other cities the view is short term so there is no long term coordinated vision. Every city in the U.S. is wrestling with severe budget problems.
Since you heard me speak in Dubai I have been in 6 different cities in the US and in every single one I have seen stopped construction sites and a huge amount of vacant retail locations with ‘for rent’ signs on the windows.
Managed and intelligent growth in Dubai will be key in the next 10 years. Thanks for you comment!
David
June 7th, 2010 at 11:20 pm
David,
As a long term ex-pat resident of Dubai (18 years) I have to challenge the comments put forward by Steve & Jonathan.
The comment about slavery is utter rubbish – yes the labourers here do work for small salaries compared to USA but it is 3-5 times what they will make back in India & Pakistan.
Think about the late 1800’s early 1900’s in the USA -many immigrants came to make their fortune but were paid terrible salaries and lived in terrible conditions (Boston – New York), but they were able to send money home to Europe and build better lives for their families and many prospered.
Got to Kerela today in India – see how many familes are literate (best in India) how many have nice homes and comfortable lifestyles – why becasue their fathers / brothers and even mothers and sisters went to the middle East to make a better life for thieir families.
Yes there are some horror stories and some people have been taken for a ride (but you get that everywhere even in the USA), but overall it has benefitted many many people not just the ones in Dubai.
As for Dubai first & formost it has a great can do attitude – that’s what will bring Dubai back to the fore – it has opportunities for people brave enough to take the challenge – and no it’s not perfect – but you can sleep at night with your door unlocked and not worry about robberies & murders – you have peace here – peace of mind – peace of doing business with like minded people!
Not everyone here who is Expat is rich, many just make enough to get by on, but Dubai had a very good education system, a good police force, great weather – most of the year, and a excellent mix of many nationalities who get on well with each other regardless of colour of skin, or where they come from, or even what religion they are – not many places can claim that.
June 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
I am surprised that your article did not mention the environmental impacts of the creation and maintenance of Dubai. It is an atrocity to our environment and will have a long-lasting impact on the future and health of our planet.
I hope and pray that no more cities like Dubai are ever created. It is surely the symbol of how modernity is destroying our green planet — and making it brown.
June 8th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
I should note, as well, that I believe that technology can — if it wants, and can look beyond profitability — create cities that are sustainable ecosystems that contribute to our planets health, and not suck life from it, like Dubai does on a daily basis.
August 4th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
One of the issues with most corporations and or cities is people create the urgency, causing a distraction from what is important to corporations and cities. We are easily distracted and easily lured into what is not important, therefore, the future is a very short 10 paces infront of most.
Technology has yet to solve three problems, Human Evil, Human Suffering and Death, although I think Nanotechnology may solve the later.
Blessings,
Owen