In the last column we looked at the general dynamics underlying the reality and need to create an automotive industry in the U.S for the 21^st century. We now take a look at what this industry might look like. An analysis of trends, developing technologies and the role that the federal government can and should play, makes it is clear that this industry will be substantially different than that of the 20^th century.

At the beginning of the 20^th century there were dozens of car companies.  The story of the last century is one of consolidation so that by the 1990s there were only the Big Three and a few foreign companies producing vehicles in the U.S.  These companies from the last century will continue as the scale part of the business for the next 5-10 years.  They will be joined by smaller, more nimble companies that will bring innovation to the marketplace.  Tesla and Aptera, mentioned in the last column are just two examples.  There is a real possibility that there will be dozens of companies by 2015.  The new companies will not provide scale, at least initially, but they will lead the market with innovation.  Some companies may produce hundreds of vehicles, others thousands, others tens of thousands.  These companies will successfully compete with the big companies on the playing field of innovation.

Clearly the cars produced in the next 10-15 years will be generally smaller, much more fuel efficient and will use less and less gasoline.  The first stage …

The US automotive industry is about to go through a historic transformation.  It is very possible that by the year 2020 we will have largely weaned ourselves off of the pure internal combustion engine.  The key is to make the right decisions about the next 12 years in the next 12 months.  To initiate a transformation of such a huge and critical industry takes planning, investment and a long term view.  Here is a very realistic view of what the US automotive and transportation industry can look like in 2015 and 2020.

The first thing to mention is that there is now a global awareness about the need to find an alternative to the gasoline internal combustion engine.  This form of power pollutes our environment, has driven CO2 to record levels in our atmosphere, and is based upon a finite fuel resource that will be gone by the end of this century.

In addition to these macro issues is the reality that combustion of any type creates heat in and of itself; that is a fundamental law of physics.  Keep this in mind as we consider such combustible alternatives to gasoline as the various types of ethanol available.  While switch grass and sugar cane ethanol may well be renewable it does generate heat, and if one is concerned about global warming, excess generation of heat by humans is an issue. The second law of thermodynamics applies here. By the way, the bandwagon of corn ethanol has clearly gone down a dead end …

Regular readers of this column know that I have been a clear and forceful advocate of alternative ways to power transportation.  The internal combustion engine was invented more than a century ago.  We are now entering the decade that will take us toward the new definition of automotive transportation. We are about to define what the car of the 21^st century will be. We must, as a country be open to all forms of vehicular power.

More than two years ago I wrote about the electric car.  Since then, in numerous speeches I have said that 2010-2015 will be the beginning of the age of the electric car.  There have been columns about the Aptera and the Tesla as examples of companies already producing electric vehicles that have met with great consumer receptivity.  There is no question that pure plug-in and plug-in hybrids will be front and center in the automotive marketplace of the next decade.  It is important that the U.S. and other countries support the rapid development of this new form of power train vehicles.

Given the crisis situations we find ourselves in relative to the state of the 20^th century automotive industry, the issue of global climate change, the soon to be permanently high price of oil and its negative effect on the global economy, it is imperative that we stand open, inquisitive and forceful in exploring all ways to replace this now broken and dangerous landscape.  For too long we have been both blindly …

It was 20 years ago this week that the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square turned violent.  After days of open demonstrations, the Chinese government had had enough and sent in the army.  This led to one of the most iconic visual images of protest in recent decades: a single man standing right in front of four tanks, daring them to run him over.

The image is one that anyone over the age of 35 can remember as it flashed around the world and represented the individual facing down superior force in a literal stand for freedom.  It was this image that gave the communist Chinese government its first taste of international outrage as it was slowly moving toward a more open, capitalistic society. It was a government and a country unused to global scrutiny. While the crack down on protestors continued, it was done quietly and out of camera range of foreigners and journalists.  A single image had flashed around the world and had left an indelible mark on human consciousness.

One of the dynamics that led this single man to stand in front of the tanks was the impact of technology.  When the government moved to end the demonstrations, it blocked all know communications channels, isolating the demonstrators. International TV and radio was jammed so the demonstrators had no idea whether there was support for them around the world. One thing the government missed was the new communications technology called the fax machine.  Evidently in offices near Tiananmen Square and in universities …