2008
December 29th, 2008
The year 2008 will obviously go down as one of the most eventful years in recent history. It was the year that Barack Obama was elected President of the United States. It was the year that the Internet replaced print and TV as the driving force in a presidential election. It was the beginning of the end of 15 years of divisive cultural politics in America.
2008 was the year of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. This collapse was the first one since the beginning of the new global economy and thus showed how humanity and all of its nation states are financially interconnected in a historically unprecedented way. This global financial collapse is historically significant for several reasons. First it did show that money and finance knows no national boundaries, and that nation states can no longer individually deal with major financial crises. Second it is the start of the process to cleanse the global and particularly U.S economy from over leveraged, debt oriented mindless growth and consumption that has been a result of the mindless support of unlimited growth without thought of personal, national and global consequences. Third it represents a clear albeit disruptive and painful part of the transition that humanity is now making from one age, the Information Age, to the new age, the Shift Age.
2008 was the year when people around the world, and most strikingly Americans, make a sudden and profound switch from consumption, debt and spending to, thrift, saving and shedding of debt whenever possible. As written here months ago, “Thrift is the new hip, thrift is the new extravagance”, It is and will be cool to shop at resale stores, drive cars years longer, save money, and in general to embrace the thrift lifestyle. This trend, along with the collapse in the price of oil has ushered in a time of both economic contraction and monetary deflation. Think about it, what costs more today than it did a year ago? Not much.
2008 was, in the first half the seeming beginning of peak oil and in the second half a realization that this peak situation, while still real, will be drawn out a few years longer than was thought as recently as 2-3 years ago. Oil, and gasoline will go up from its current price in 2009, but not enough to shock the system, just enough in underscore to the consumer the need to be thrifty elsewhere in their spending.
2008 was the year when it seemed that the critical mass thinking about global warming that occurred in 2006 reached a level of massive acceptance. The age old exercise about talking about the weather took on new meaning this year. If we all had the sensitivity to the earth that the Native Americans had centuries ago we would be hearing the earth and the spirits of the planet telling us clearly that all is not well.
This is the last column of this incredibly eventful year. I deeply thank all of you who have been loyal readers of www.evolutionshift.com during its almost three years in existence. Your support and comments over this time period has meant a lot to me. Thank you. I also acknowledge all of the new readers who have come to this site during 2008. The readership has grown significantly this past year, both in the U.S. and around the world. It makes no difference whether you came here because of hearing me speak, a recommendation from a friend or favorite blog, or just because in this time of upheaval you wanted something to read that might provoke clarity about what might seem like an uncertain future. You are here, I thank you for that, and will strive to give you thought provoking columns in 2009.
The next couple of columns, in the New Year, will be my annual forecasts for the year. 2009 will not be a respite from the turbulence of 2008, it will be a continuation, an expansion and the beginning of the new directions that humanity is going to take in the years ahead. Our journey together is changing course. Happy New Year!
December 29th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Congratulations; I will continue reading your very good articles.
Happy New Year
From Colombia
December 30th, 2008 at 12:21 am
Happy New Year
The United States of America and other countries should stop taxing interest from savings accounts, dividends, capital gains, and estates. People and businesses will have more money to spend. Businesses especially small businesses will be better able to obtain loans and investments for hiring workers, plant and equipment, and research and development. Middle class people and union members would benefit from capital gains and dividends not being taxed. People would be better able to save for down payments on homes and fixed rate mortgages, college tuitions, and retirements. If more wealth is created, sales tax revenues are likely to increase over time. If more people are employed, more people pay Social Security taxes and Medicare taxes.
The United States of America and Mexico should legalize, regulate, and tax the sale of marijuana, heroin, and cocaine for people who are at least 18 years old. If they do this, they will probably be able to spend less money fighting violent Mexican drug gangs. If Mexico is able to spend less money fighting violent Mexican drug gangs, Mexico’s government may be able to spend more money on Mexico’s economy. If Mexico’s economy significantly improves, fewer illegal immigrants may come to the United States of America, many illegal immigrants may leave the United States of America, and many more Mexicans may be able to buy products and services from the United States of America. Most non violent drug offenders should be released from prisons. If State governments are able to spend less money dealing with illegal immigrants and non violent drug offenders, they may be able to reduce sales taxes.
The United States of America should end the trade embargo with Cuba. We trade with China. We should be willing to trade with Cuba. We should let in sugar, cigars, and other products.
The United States of America should consider producing lots of fuel from sugar the way that Brazil does. The United States of America should consider importing a great deal of fuel from Brazil.
Many African countries might want to form a United States of Africa that could have a constitution similar to the United States of America that helps it better maximize Africa’s mineral wealth and other wealth. Many African countries may want to back their currencies with gold, silver, and other commodities.
Many countries should legalize prostitution for people who are at least 18 years old to decrease sex slavery and rapes.
The less underground economies are the more money that governments may obtain from sales taxes and income taxes. Governments need to consider making many activities that are now illegal legal to help them increase their revenues. I hope they will all legalize, regulate, and tax the sale of marijuana, heroin, and cocaine for people who are at least 18 years old. Criminals and terrorists would probably obtain fewer profits from their drugs.
The United States of America should spend a lot more money on buses within cities, buses between cities, and passenger rail. If people have an easier time getting to jobs and from jobs, fewer people may need to obtain money from food stamps and Medicaid. If fewer families need to have 2nd cars and 3rd cars, they could save money on transportation and the air might be cleaner.
The federal government should sell a lot of the land it owns to raise capital, reduce the national debt, help fund Social Security and Medicare, invest in infrastructure, and do other things. Some of the money the federal government obtains from the sale of the lands should go to state governments. If you type federal government owned land on a search engine, you might be surprised at how much land the federal government owns.
Congress should eliminate the Federal Reserve or veto many of its decisions.
Congress should consider backing our currency with gold, silver, and other commodities.
The federal government and state governments should reduce the minimum wage over time and eventually eliminate it. If the minimum wage is increased, teenagers and former prisoners will have a harder time obtaining jobs and skills. If the minimum wage is increased, the recession may get a lot worse. If the minimum wage is increased, many people will be fired, many people will work fewer hours, many salaried workers will work more hours for the same pay, and prices are likely to increase.
I graduated from the University of New Hampshire in 1992 with a BA Degree in Political Science and a minor in Economics.
I ran for United States Senate from New Hampshire in 2002.
My website is http://www.myspace.com/kennethstremsky
Manchester, New Hampshire
December 30th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I too look forward to a re-alignment of talent and resources. Let’s get America and the world working again. True, we shall need to re-configure how we define work and maximize the talent pool to make best use of our collective brain power. I am impressed by the credentials of the Obama team. Finally, meritocracy counts!
December 31st, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Three cheers and a Happy New Year to scientists everywhere who will not be silenced by the chance at great wealth, power, privileges and status that are sure to be derived from saying loudly and clearly only what is politically convenient and economically expedient.
Why not lay blame for the current economic catastrophe and the looming environmental calamity where it belongs: at the feet of the economic powerbrokers who organize and manage a colossal pyramid scheme, a modern representation of the ancient Tower of Babel? Is the pernicious denial of anthropogenic global warming and the human-driven destabilization of Earth’s climate not primarily for the purpose of preserving the selfish material interests of a few wealthy and powerful people, and their minions?
Let’s look a bit more closely at the scandulous ‘business’ of Bernie Madoff, confidence games, Ponzi schemes and other financial vehicles for funneling, accumulating and concentrating billions of dollars in unearned wealth into the hands of a tiny minority of people who comprise the top of the global economy.
There are many minions of the wealthy and their bought-and-paid-for politicians who “spread the word” of these schemes. Con men operate pyramid schemes. They assure “plausible deniability” and “legal cover” for all that is said and done.
Only a telling of the truth about what they are doing is forbidden. That is the one and only thing that is verboten. Do not break their vow of silence by telling what is true about the perpetration of the schemes {ie, the only games in town, so they say}, because the “houses of cards” out of which a modern Tower of Babel is constructed immediately is exposed as fraudulent and patently unsustainable. These pyramidal constructions can withstand any force except that which is presented by speaking out loudly and clearly about what is happening in these enterprises. As soon as light of what is true was shed on Bernie’s scheme, the house of cards he had constructed fell.
Bernard Madoff may be the first of my “Not So GREAT GREED GRAB Generation’s” kingpins to find that his “house of cards” has collapsed; but I dare say, Bernie will not be the last. There are other kingpins and many too many minions ready, willing and able to play along in what looks like the greatest self-enrichment scam in human history.
Why not say that greed is not good and mean it? Why not assign value to personal honesty, accountability and transparency?
Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population,
established 2001
http://sustainabilityscience.org/content.html?contentid=1176