Comments on: America’s Automotive Future Goes Beyond the Big Three http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/ A Future Look at Today Fri, 03 Feb 2012 22:38:37 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Cuba | Evolution Shift - David Houle, Futurist, Disintermediation, Future Trends, Future of Energy http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-65632 Cuba | Evolution Shift - David Houle, Futurist, Disintermediation, Future Trends, Future of Energy Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:22:32 +0000 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=278#comment-65632 [...] lens of 20th century constructs and filters when looking at the present.  As I wrote months ago in a column about the bail-out of the Big Three auto companies, the Big Three define the 20th century auto industry, one predicated solely on the ICE (Internal [...] [...] lens of 20th century constructs and filters when looking at the present.  As I wrote months ago in a column about the bail-out of the Big Three auto companies, the Big Three define the 20th century auto industry, one predicated solely on the ICE (Internal [...]

]]> By: Todd Hawkins http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-65313 Todd Hawkins Sat, 27 Dec 2008 16:46:11 +0000 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=278#comment-65313 I find all of these topics to be very, very interesting. I am in the transportation business and can't help but to wonder how all of the changes will affect industries such as trucking, trains and the airline business? I find all of these topics to be very, very interesting. I am in the transportation business and can’t help but to wonder how all of the changes will affect industries such as trucking, trains and the airline business?

]]> By: Jonathan http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-65291 Jonathan Fri, 05 Dec 2008 19:44:00 +0000 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=278#comment-65291 David: Indeed, the transition to hybrids and higher mileage vehicles will take much longer than you predict. Check out: Electric Car Sales in Freefall; Industry Risks Collapse - http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=13601 I sold automobiles for two years, mostly Ford, some Chevrolet and some Volkswagen. Supply of all high mileage vehicles is limited: current generation hybrids because of limited availability of NiMH batteries and clean diesels because of limited supply. I read autonews.com headlines every day and still see no sign of production ramp ups of NiMH batteries, LiIon batteries or clean diesel. Also, how interested will people be in clean diesel if it remains at the high premium that it is today over gasoline? I believe that I last saw it at 65% higher price than gasoline which means that it is currently much more expensive to use than gasoline. This will change in the future but, in my experience, people almost only look at today's numbers when making these types of decisions. Even when high mileage hybrids are available, many buyers are risk averse. I sold as many Escape Hybrids, new and used, as anyone in the Ford dealership where I worked. They are still an early adopter phenomenon. I cannot count the number of people who were scared about battery problems even though the unique hybrid components, including NiMH batteries, were warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. In fact, according to a story earlier this year in the New York Times, some hybrids in taxi service in New York City and San Francisco are already getting over 200,000 miles. There was no report in the article of any NiMH batteries being replaced. There are only rumors of the cost of replacing battery packs if and when they go bad (and are not under warranty). The rumored price for NiMH was $3,000/pack and the rumored price for LiIon was $10,000/pack! Of course, these prices will come down with mass production. However, these are batteries and obey the experience curves of chemistry, which are not as favorable as Moore's law for semiconductors, by a long shot. Sincerely, Jonathan David:

Indeed, the transition to hybrids and higher mileage vehicles will take much longer than you predict.

Check out: Electric Car Sales in Freefall; Industry Risks Collapse – http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=13601

I sold automobiles for two years, mostly Ford, some Chevrolet and some Volkswagen. Supply of all high mileage vehicles is limited: current generation hybrids because of limited availability of NiMH batteries and clean diesels because of limited supply. I read autonews.com headlines every day and still see no sign of production ramp ups of NiMH batteries, LiIon batteries or clean diesel. Also, how interested will people be in clean diesel if it remains at the high premium that it is today over gasoline? I believe that I last saw it at 65% higher price than gasoline which means that it is currently much more expensive to use than gasoline. This will change in the future but, in my experience, people almost only look at today’s numbers when making these types of decisions.

Even when high mileage hybrids are available, many buyers are risk averse. I sold as many Escape Hybrids, new and used, as anyone in the Ford dealership where I worked. They are still an early adopter phenomenon. I cannot count the number of people who were scared about battery problems even though the unique hybrid components, including NiMH batteries, were warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. In fact, according to a story earlier this year in the New York Times, some hybrids in taxi service in New York City and San Francisco are already getting over 200,000 miles. There was no report in the article of any NiMH batteries being replaced.

There are only rumors of the cost of replacing battery packs if and when they go bad (and are not under warranty). The rumored price for NiMH was $3,000/pack and the rumored price for LiIon was $10,000/pack!

Of course, these prices will come down with mass production. However, these are batteries and obey the experience curves of chemistry, which are not as favorable as Moore’s law for semiconductors, by a long shot.

Sincerely,

Jonathan

]]> By: george rosenbaum http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-65290 george rosenbaum Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:36:23 +0000 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=278#comment-65290 The past i.e. 20th Century reflected the cars that consumers wanted to buy, which the Big Three correctly claim. But, the consumer has shifted. While there hardly is market consensus, there is growing demand for downsizing. That includes both smaller cars and smaller engines. Transition to alternative energy will be slow for many reasons, but including the likelihood that only the early adopters and also relatively affluent will surrender the combustion engine soon. Mainstream motorists are surrendering size and power which makes it possible to achieve 30-35 mpg urban fuel efficiency, on top of an evident trend of doing less driving which is likely to stick and grow. Even electric, compressed air and hydrogen are not likely to bring motorists back to the extravagent driving of the 20th century. People are beginning to like spending less time in cars. The demand for downsizing makes the present fleet a giant scrap heap that motorists will replace over the next decade. It will be only marginally with non combustiion engines. The big question is whether the Big Three will mobilize to gain market share by building exciting low cost and high cost downsized cars that deliver 30-35..even 40mpg with combusion engines. They know how to build such cars very well and can match production to consumer demand relatively quickly. The past i.e. 20th Century reflected the cars that consumers wanted to buy, which the Big Three correctly claim. But, the consumer has shifted. While there hardly is market consensus, there is growing demand for downsizing. That includes both smaller cars and smaller engines. Transition to alternative energy will be slow for many reasons, but including the likelihood
that only the early adopters and also relatively affluent will surrender the combustion engine soon. Mainstream motorists are surrendering size and power which makes it possible to achieve 30-35 mpg urban fuel efficiency, on top of an evident trend of doing less driving which is
likely to stick and grow. Even electric, compressed air and hydrogen are not likely to bring motorists back to the extravagent driving of the 20th century. People are beginning to like spending less time in cars. The
demand for downsizing makes the present fleet a
giant scrap heap that motorists will replace over the
next decade. It will be only marginally with non combustiion engines. The big question is whether the Big Three will mobilize to gain market share by building exciting low cost and high cost downsized
cars that deliver 30-35..even 40mpg with combusion
engines. They know how to build such cars very well and
can match production to consumer demand relatively quickly.

]]> By: Ken Stremsky http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2008/12/01/americas-automotive-future-goes-beyond-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-65287 Ken Stremsky Wed, 03 Dec 2008 00:32:43 +0000 http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/?p=278#comment-65287 Very nice post. If we are able to reduce air pollution caused by automobiles significantly in the future, fewer children may miss school because of asthma attacks, fewer parents may miss time from work to take care of sick children, and fewer senior citizens may be harmed by air pollution. Have you thought about writing about the attack in India by terrorists? If we bought less foreign oil, terrorists would obtain less funding from us. I recommend people read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. The terrorists want to make things worse between Pakistan and India. Sometimes, you need to think about the unexpected and then do it. Pakistan and India should work together to go after the terrorists in Pakistan. Pakistan and India should increase trade, student exchanges, and other things. I ran for United States Senate from New Hampshire in 2002. My website is http://www.myspace.com/kennethstremsky Very nice post.

If we are able to reduce air pollution caused by automobiles significantly in the future, fewer children may miss school because of asthma attacks, fewer parents may miss time from work to take care of sick children, and fewer senior citizens may be harmed by air pollution.

Have you thought about writing about the attack in India by terrorists?

If we bought less foreign oil, terrorists would obtain less funding from us.

I recommend people read The Art of War by Sun Tzu.

The terrorists want to make things worse between Pakistan and India. Sometimes, you need to think about the unexpected and then do it. Pakistan and India should work together to go after the terrorists in Pakistan. Pakistan and India should increase trade, student exchanges, and other things.

I ran for United States Senate from New Hampshire in 2002. My website is http://www.myspace.com/kennethstremsky

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